Dark Man Cometh???

[OldNitro]

Consider this..

The Chicom State are Modern Slavers..
They drive their people like cattle, in slave factories..
They have built this massive economic engine, production
center of the Global economy.. With PLA Generals controlling
every corporate board.. Fascism under the Red Banner, LOL!
Not like they give 2 squats about their people..

But, SOMETHING is happening over there, that made them shut down virtually
their WHOLE DAMN ECONOMY.. So completely, their Infrastructure is grinding to a halt..

Also, If the death toll was 1600, they wouldn't be detecting cremations in Japan..

[Brooke]

Meanwhile back at the Ranch.......

From the CDC Two days ago;

26 million cases of Influenza
250,000 hospitalizations
14,000 Deaths

Where is all the whimpering Statistics, Rumors, and Fear Mongering?

Obviously the Cabal & Pentavirate must be  silencing the masses here too!?

Several reasons.

People are used to the flu, so it is less scary to them.

There are vaccines for flu.

Death rate for flu is 0.05%.  It is unlikely for anyone you know to die from flu.

--------------

Here's why nCov is a big deal.

nCov currently has an R0 (infection rate) about the same as flu.

Death rate for nCov (by China numbers, which have some caveats) is 20-40 times higher that of flu.

So, if 26 million people in the US got nCov (which is the concern, because of R0), we would have 7.5 million hospitalizations (well, the hospital system would collapse before that), and 400,000 deaths (about the same number as US citizens who died in WWII).  In the world, there would be maybe 10 million deaths (or worse, because if that happened, most people aren't going to get any hospital attention).

Maybe it ends up like SARS or MERS and peters out before it is a world-wide crisis.  But currently you cannot at all count on that.

That's why there is action being taken regarding nCov that is far more drastic than you have ever seen regarding flu.

[guncrasher]

Lot's of folks wonder if China's official data is fudged.  Most of that is based on anecdotal evidence, which is not compelling to people who know data analysis.  However, the following Barron's article gives the sort of evidence used by pros to spot data tampering.  Unless Barron's is lying about what it found, this is a likely tell of made-up data.

From Barron's:

"China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. ‘This Never Happens With Real Data.’"

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

data never adds up. it's undereported in most cases. not like there's a doctor with a clicker on every hospital.

i can only imagine the nightmare that it is to count. as for the numbers being right or wrong. think about this, there's a guy sitting across the world from where it is happening thinking his guesstimates are better than the Chinese guesstimates.  for every count you can always find somebody that fits your point you are trying to make.


semp

[guncrasher]

Consider this..

The Chicom State are Modern Slavers..
They drive their people like cattle, in slave factories..
They have built this massive economic engine, production
center of the Global economy.. With PLA Generals controlling
every corporate board.. Fascism under the Red Banner, LOL!
Not like they give 2 squats about their people..

But, SOMETHING is happening over there, that made them shut down virtually
their WHOLE DAMN ECONOMY.. So completely, their Infrastructure is grinding to a halt..

Also, If the death toll was 1600, they wouldn't be detecting cremations in Japan..

if cremations were detected in Japan they could be seen from space.  think Australian fires. doubt China set up thousands of crematoriums to handle 10s of thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands.



semp

[TyFoo]

Several reasons.

People are used to the flu, so it is less scary to them.

There are vaccines for flu.

Death rate for flu is 0.05%.  It is unlikely for anyone you know to die from flu.

--------------

Here's why nCov is a big deal.

nCov currently has an R0 (infection rate) about the same as flu.

Death rate for nCov (by China numbers, which have some caveats) is 20-40 times higher that of flu.

So, if 26 million people in the US got nCov (which is the concern, because of R0), we would have 7.5 million hospitalizations (well, the hospital system would collapse before that), and 400,000 deaths (about the same number as US citizens who died in WWII).  In the world, there would be maybe 10 million deaths (or worse, because if that happened, most people aren't going to get any hospital attention).

Maybe it ends up like SARS or MERS and peters out before it is a world-wide crisis.  But currently you cannot at all count on that.

That's why there is action being taken regarding nCov that is far more drastic than you have ever seen regarding flu.

I do not doubt that there is a serious issue going on here, that the illness and deaths that are being experienced are of concern to the entire world.

So we get another extrapolated example of why we should worry? Based on numbers that just about everybody on here (and if I am wrong so be it) thinks that the big bad boogy man (China) is under reporting.

Now, I am to understand that there are detectors able to detect human cremated remains? Lol

So if I use some numbers provided by the local source - the extra “1,600” deaths which are obviously being cremated caused a spike in Japan on their  “Cremation Detector”?

Considering China has over 1.4 Billion people - I read that they experience around 28,000 deaths A DAY on average. So the extra 1,600 is what finally set the alarm off? That’s some sensitive equipment.

The point is - why spread rumors of unsubstantiated statistics that you “Know” is wrong considering the big bad boogy man is under reporting?

[Brooke]

data never adds up. it's undereported in most cases. not like there's a doctor with a clicker on every hospital.

No, that's the point.  If you are just reporting stuff, including with human error or inefficiencies, you don't get a correlation coefficient of 0.99 with a simplistic model.

This is how scientists know when someone is fabricating data.

[guncrasher]

No, that's the point.  If you are just reporting stuff, including with human error or inefficiencies, you don't get a correlation coefficient of 0.99 with a simplistic model.

This is how scientists know when someone is fabricating data.

all data can be manipulated to fit your point.   for example i can say it's impossible to drink 12 ounces of milk you carefully measured and put in a glass.


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[Brooke]

So we get another extrapolated example of why we should worry? Based on numbers that just about everybody on here (and if I am wrong so be it) thinks that the big bad boogy man (China) is under reporting.

It is concerning if you use the numbers they give and that the world's health organizations are going by.  If China is under-reporting, it is more concerning than that.

Now, I am to understand that there are detectors
....

That has nothing to do with what I was talking about.  I leave you to argue that with others if you want.

The point is - why spread rumors of unsubstantiated statistics that you “Know” is wrong considering the big bad boogy man is under reporting?

I'm literally doing exactly the opposite of that.  I'm stating facts and substantiated statistics.  Also, if China is under reporting, the situation is more concerning, not less concerning.

Even if you don't know anything about infectious disease or scientific reasoning in general, the fact that China is quarantining cities bigger than New York and doing things that affect many billions of dollars in their economy should give you an indication that this is not like a normal flu season.

[Brooke]

all data can be manipulated to fit your point.   for example i can say it's impossible to drink 12 ounces of milk you carefully measured and put in a glass.


semp

No, it can't.  That's why the technique is a standard tool used in discovering scientific fraud.

Your milk example is a non sequitur.

[CptTrips]

They are quarantining money. Think about that. You don’t think they sound terrified? Do you think they would just do this for the seasonal sniffles?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-15/china-quarantines-cash-to-sanitize-old-bank-notes-from-virus

[guncrasher]

No, it can't.  That's why the technique is a standard tool used in discovering scientific fraud.

Your milk example is a non sequitur.

like the cremation fact?  people calling radio stations saying they are told not to identify patients?  or something like that.

you can get any number you want and somebody to give them to you.


semp

[Brooke]

like the cremation fact?

That has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.  I'm talking specifically about this:  Barron's analyzed death counts and found 0.99 correlation with a simple math model.  That doesn't happen with real-world data.  So, either the data is made up, or Barron's botched their analysis.

you can get any number you want and somebody to give them to you.

You can get people to tell you that the earth is flat and that smoking is good for you.  And you can get people to tell you the opposite.  That doesn't mean both points of view are equally valid.  In fact, one is true and the other is not, and you can tell which by using well-known techniques in science.

Likewise, there are well-known techniques in science that help spot fraudulent data.

[puller]

RE: Detecting Cremation Gasses

What is being said is that, highly concentrated amounts of gasses that are usually connected with large amounts of burning organic matter are being detected by satellites and other detection equipment.

Not saying that the ChiComs are actually hiding anything...but being a communist government...it wouldn't surprise me in the least...

[morfiend]

I read on another forum that the Chinese bought it from some sneaky Canuks,I wanted to read more but I was out wrangling my moose.




   

[guncrasher]

RE: Detecting Cremation Gasses

What is being said is that, highly concentrated amounts of gasses that are usually connected with large amounts of burning organic matter are being detected by satellites and other detection equipment.

Not saying that the ChiComs are actually hiding anything...but being a communist government...it wouldn't surprise me in the least...

nope not even close.   there's photographs of whether patterns being passed as proof of body cremations.   no satellite image exists of this.  ask NASA they're in charge of that.


semp