Petrol dollar and reserve currency and how they relate to this latest oil war is the bigger influence on the US stock markets IMHO.
Not sure I agree completely.
Lower oil prices are usually good for economic growth. High energy prices are generally a friction. Remember in 2007-2008 when gas spiked to over $4/gal right before things tipped over? Final straw?
Of course low oil prices can also be caused by low economic activity so it is a complicated relationship.
The market certainly acted like it was a pile-on of the final straw on a sick camels back, but only because the virus had it already on edge. It would not have had that effect 6 months ago.
I think you are underestimating the effect the virus will have on the economy. I think it will dwarf any losses from over-leveraged shale oil companies who are going to get what they deserve for taking on so much debt.
The virus is going to be a brutal headwind to all economic activity either directly or indirectly across the board both here and abroad. The earning seasons reports for the rest of the year are going to be blood-baths.
It might ease slightly over the summer but will return with a vengeance in the Fall before the election and grind through the holidays and isn't going to end until people have gotten an effective vaccine and feel safe again.