Dark Man Cometh???

[DmonSlyr]

Our CFR rate right now is almost .2%. I think that skews high because of the early nursing home outbreak.

I'm guessing we'll see .03% -.1% depending on the region of the country. So 3 to 10 times the seasonal flu mortality rate.

That's still a lot of people but it's not like Italy.

The irony is that our system has more health facilities and doctors offices than any other place. Out of 350 million people, We have a very small % of the population infected in over 15 days. During the 0bama administration, more local small hospitals shut down than ever. Socialist policies gave us a healthcare that was still expensive yet could not fund healthcare facilities. Socialism creates over crowding because private owners cannot open health clinics. That is what we were seeing in Italy as people get turned away and are dying. People forget that our hospitals are much better ran than 100% of the world and have far better funding because private owners dont have to go thru bureaucrats to fund the hospital.

[FLS]

0.2% or 2%?

Good catch. 1.8% at this time with the 40 from the nursing home but I think the mild cases will bring it down.  Once drive thru testing starts we'll have better numbers.

Hopefully it won't be 30-100 times the seasonal flu rate. I still think we'll do better than Italy.

[Arlo]

Socialist policies gave us a healthcare that was still expensive yet could not fund healthcare facilities.

Every time you post its like ignorance pot luck.

[CptTrips]

Every time you post its like ignorance pot luck.

It's not even entertaining anymore.

[DmonSlyr]

Every time you post its like ignorance pot luck.

Your theories are proven failures. The people are tired of it. If you were actually smart, you wouldnt continue to push failing agendas and people like Joe Biden. Who the F was Tim Kaine anyway??. lmfao dumb idiots. I enjoy watching the left eat crap every day. They deserve it.

 

[CptTrips]

Good catch. 1.8% at this time with the 40 from the nursing home but I think the mild cases will bring it down.  Once drive thru testing starts we'll have better numbers.

Hopefully it won't be 30-100 times the seasonal flu rate. I still think we'll do better than Italy.

Yeah, our sample size is still too small to draw an accurate CFR.  Too easily skewed.  Data is too noisy.

China has the largest sample size, but no one trusts their numbers.  The thing that is creepy though, if they are lying, they are under-reporting their CFR.  There would be no political advantage to over-reporting.

The two best data-sets for us are Italy and S. Korea.  S. Korea represents best-in-class response.  Massive decisive commitment early on and a population that basically sees this like a war-time situation. 

We can't even get tests widely available.  Still.  A month into this thing. 
People are still crowding into bars and restaurants in some areas.

We'll fall somewhere in between Italy and S.Korea, but I'd suspect closer to Italy given how badly we have flubbed the start.

Sadly, by May, our data-set will probably be large enough to get a much more accurate read of our country's particular R0 and CFR profile.

[Arlo]

Your theories are proven failures. The people are tired of it. If you were actually smart, you wouldnt continue to push failing agendas and people like Joe Biden. Who the F was Tim Kaine anyway??. lmfao dumb idiots. I enjoy watching the left eat crap every day. They deserve it.

Fishing for what I theorize isn't going to make you look smarter. Never has.

[DREDIOCK]

In an article published by "the guardian" as of 3 hours ago
(Note: the website "Media bias Fact check" lists the guardian as being left of center in its bias
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/?s=the+Guardian)


"What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-facts-cure-mortality-rate-virus-covid-19

[Busher]

Fishing for what I theorize isn't going to make you look smarter. Never has.

I have to remind you. Never feed him after midnight and never get him wet.

[Shuffler]

Keep making yourself feel better! 
(Image removed from quote.)

I feel fine and so do my friends and acquaintances.... despite all the folks who want to see bodies pile up.

[Arlo]

I feel fine and so do my friends and acquaintances.... despite all the folks who want to see bodies pile up.

Want. You keep using that word.

[DREDIOCK]

Yeah, our sample size is still too small to draw an accurate CFR.  Too easily skewed.  Data is too noisy.

China has the largest sample size, but no one trusts their numbers.  The thing that is creepy though, if they are lying, they are under-reporting their CFR.  There would be no political advantage to over-reporting.

The two best data-sets for us are Italy and S. Korea.  S. Korea represents best-in-class response.  Massive decisive commitment early on and a population that basically sees this like a war-time situation. 

We can't even get tests widely available.  Still.  A month into this thing. 
People are still crowding into bars and restaurants in some areas.

We'll fall somewhere in between Italy and S.Korea, but I'd suspect closer to Italy given how badly we have flubbed the start.

Sadly, by May, our data-set will probably be large enough to get a much more accurate read of our country's particular R0 and CFR profile.

S Korea has an estimated population of 51 million
The US has an estimated population of over 327 million and heaven knows how many that we dont know about
Based on population numbers alone  SK has a much easier job to do.
Flubbed? When in comparison to many other nations that is an overly critical statement.
Our infection numbers are still lower then most other countries outside of the epicenter. such as France, and Spain.
As of march 12th


Country                  Infections              Deaths                   

China                   80,793                  3,169
Italy                   12,462                     827
Iran                      9,000                     354
South Korea              7,869                       66
France                      2,281                       48
Spain                      1,695                       48
Germany                      1,567                         3
United States              1,220                       36
Switzerland              642                         3
Japan                      619                       15

And nearly half of our mortality rate is in one single location. the now famous "Life Care Center" in Washington A place which houses exactly those to likely be effected the most. Sick elderly people.
A bigger question should be what is Germany doing right?

[CptTrips]

In an article published by "the guardian" as of 3 hours ago

This was all explained to you earlier Drediock.  Perhaps you were too busy name calling to notice.

This is why the NR article I posted was using 1% as a reasonable guess at the CFR we might expect. 

 

[CptTrips]

S Korea has an estimated population of 51 million
The US has an estimated population of over 327 million

You're wasting your time comparing the number of US infected to countries that have actually been testing rigorously. Apples and Oranges.

S. Korea has tested about 230,000 of its citizens. 
We've managed about 15,000 tests in the same amount of time. 

"Don't Test, Don't Tell" is not the same thing as not having infected.

As the kits finally get out in distribution (a month late..yes flubbed), numbers of identified infected will skyrocket.

They are there, just haven't been able to be identified and counted because no one can get a test.

[DREDIOCK]

This was all explained to you earlier Drediock.  Perhaps you were too busy name calling to notice.

This is why the NR article I posted was using 1% as a reasonable guess at the CFR we might expect. 

 

Which is also what I have been saying.  Perhaps you didnt notice