The real and lasting damage will not be medical...
It will be economic
IMHO the bigger issue is ... are we going to be in a depression by the time this flu runs its course???
I dunno. I'd rather lose all my money rather than lose my family. I can always go out and make more money someday.
But, yeah, I hear you.
Current estimates are -2% GDP for 2nd Qtr. (Note the minus sign.) I wound't be surprised at near 0% GDP for the year. Maybe worse.
I'd expect the market to be down another 20% down from here before this is over. Which with -10% days might not takes as long as I thought.
This thing may have no bottom.
The problem is, to really have a chance to save lives, you are going to have to shut everything down. Everything.
Schools.
Restaurants.
Bars.
Factories.
Churches.
Hotels.
Airlines.
Theaters.
Amusement parks.
Malls.
Retail stores.
How long do you keep them closed? Without a vaccine, as soon as you reopen them, you'll start getting infections.
People will lose jobs, or at least paychecks on unpaid furlough. Business will fold.
People will lose retirement. They will burn though savings.
Regardless of cost, we need to minimize infections over the next 3 months to avoid the health system from becoming saturated from the initial waves. If that happens, people start dying unnecessarily from lack of resources.
Fkit. We'll worry about the economics later. This is the Big Kahuna. US Government should pull out the stops and release all it's immense power without restraint. WWII spending X 10.
What's the point of being the last super-power if at a time like this you can't stomp your foot and shake the very Earth?
If we try an nickle and dime this we'll end up scampering around caves in animal skins.
[Edit] To answer your question directly, I'm expecting a "Repression" half way between Recession and Depression. It's going to be a bad global recession with the addition of piles of bodies. But I don't expect it to last enough years to qualify as a depression.
