Dark Man Cometh???

[DmonSlyr]

Can you provide the link to where ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, made an estimate of the deaths by the end of March?

Because I have a link to a post where you did.

They are using the CDCs #s sooo...

[FESS67]

I cannot believe I am going to agree with Trump but here goes.

"We can't have the cure be worse than the problem"

This is so true.  We are going to have to take a hit one way or the other.  The only question should be which one is going to hurt least and how do we soften the hit?  It is the ultimate in triage.  Tough decisions need to be made for the greater good.

[CptTrips]

They are using the CDCs #s sooo...

Can you provide the link to where the CDC made an estimate of the deaths by the end of March?

Because I have a link to a post where you did.

[DmonSlyr]

Can you provide the link to where the CDC made an estimate of the deaths by the end of March?

Because I have a link to a post where you did.

We are at less than 1000 deaths in over a month with 68.5k cases.

In 6 days we've gone from 18k cases to 68K cases.

That's about the size of a normal football stadium.

We have ~ 340M people in the US.

The the NYT estimated between 200K and 1.7 million deaths if nothing was done over a span of "months".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/202003/13/us/coronavirus-deathsestimate.amp.html%3f0p19G=0038

We arent even anywhere close to that. Nor was Chinas, even flubbing their #s. That is 100% PURE fear speculation and dangerous propaganda that has crushed our economy, which is worse than the damn virus.

Not sure why the stupid link isnt working  but got it right off google. "CDC # of deaths estimate".

[guncrasher]

We are at less than 1000 deaths in over a month with 68.5k cases.

In 6 days we've gone from 18k cases to 68K cases.

That's about the size of a normal football stadium.

We have ~ 340M people in the US.

The the NYT estimated between 200K and 1.7 million deaths if nothing was done over a span of "months".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/202003/13/us/coronavirus-deathsestimate.amp.html%3f0p19G=0038

We arent even anywhere close to that. Nor was Chinas, even flubbing their #s. That is 100% PURE fear speculation and dangerous propaganda that has crushed our economy, which is worse than the damn virus.

Not sure why the stupid link isnt working  but got it right off google. "CDC # of deaths estimate".

you still aren't answering about 100 deaths.

semp

[Arlo]

you still aren't answering about 100 deaths.

He knows. For some, admitting they were obviously wrong is impossible. 

[icepac]

83,553 cases and 1200 deaths in USA at 7:00 pm eastern time.

[DmonSlyr]

He knows. For some, admitting they were obviously wrong is impossible. 

My estimate is still closer than anyone else's. 

83,553 cases and 1200 deaths in USA at 7:00 pm eastern time.

Not sure where you are getting that as I just looked at the CDC site 5 minutes ago

[Busher]

For some of us this debate about death numbers and politics is really getting old. By the time this is over the death toll worldwide is going to be biblical. Laying blame is both ignorant and meaningless. Science has already proven that no one is to blame; viruses mutate and when they do, they can become deadly.
This is not an American crisis, its a world crisis akin to a world war. It's going to take worldwide scientific co-operation to solve it; and politicians need to get out of the way.

[DmonSlyr]

For some of us this debate about death numbers and politics is really getting old. By the time this is over the death toll worldwide is going to be biblical. Laying blame is both ignorant and meaningless. Science has already proven that no one is to blame; viruses mutate and when they do, they can become deadly.
This is not an American crisis, its a world crisis akin to a world war. It's going to take worldwide scientific co-operation to solve it; and politicians need to get out of the way.

That's the fault of our own media....

And you will owe me an apology when the truth comes out.   

[Arlo]

And you will owe me an apology when the truth comes out.   

You've never offered one when proven wrong. A double standard is no standard at all.

[CptTrips]

In 6 days we've gone from 18k cases to 68K cases.

There you go.  You are starting to get the faintest glimmer of understanding exponential growth.  A 3.7 fold increase in cases in 6 days.  We are ramping up testing so that is part of it.

So lets say a number increases 3 fold every 6 days compounding.

1000 day 1
3000 day 6
9000 day 11
27000 day 16
81,000 day 21
243,000 day 26
729,000 day 31

At 3 fold increase every 6 days a number could go from 1000 to 729,000 in 31 days.  Now continue that out for at least another 365 days.

[edit: you might get to herd immunity before you'd get to day 365, but I think you can glimpse the cost of that.]

Those aren't the deaths I'm predicting.  I'm just trying to get you to understand the threat of exponential growth.  Hopefully our isolation attempts can bend that curve, but mathematically you can surely see the risk of exponential transmission.

I'm not sure you and Shuffler understand exponential growth.  That's why you couldn't conceive we'd have WELL over 1000 deaths by the end of March a month ago when we only had 10 or so.

[guncrasher]

He knows. For some, admitting they were obviously wrong is impossible. 

in his defense  i lost track of numbers myself.  yesterday i woke up to 1k. it was just 300 it seems like the it was 100 the other dau.


semp

[DmonSlyr]

There you go.  You are starting to get the faintest glimmer of understanding exponential growth.  A 3.7 fold increase in cases in 6 days.  We are ramping up testing so that is part of it.

So lets say a number increases 3 fold every 6 days compounding.

1000 day 1
3000 day 6
9000 day 11
27000 day 16
81,000 day 21
243,000 day 26
729,000 day 31

At 3 fold increase every 6 days a number could go from 1000 to 729,000 in 31 days.  Now continue that out for at least another 365 days.

[edit: you might get to herd immunity before you'd get to day 365, but I think you can glimpse the cost of that.]

Those aren't the deaths I'm predicting.  I'm just trying to get you to understand the threat of exponential growth.  Hopefully our isolation attempts can bend that curve, but mathematically you can surely see the risk of exponential transmission.

I'm not sure you and Shuffler understand exponential growth.  That's why you couldn't conceive we'd have WELL over 1000 deaths by the end of March a month ago when we only had 10 or so.

Looking at Chinas #s. My estimates were not far off. Who knew it would spread like wildfire in America. That being said, I still dont know anyone who has it.

They are still estimating 81K deaths in the US by August. Seems a bit steep. 

[CptTrips]

in his defense  i lost track of numbers myself.  yesterday i woke up to 1k. it was just 300 it seems like the it was 100 the other dau.

Get used to that sensation.

Exponential growth is a Fother Mucker.

April and May will leave you awe stuck.

Unless we can bend the curve by locking this beotch down.

But I'm afraid April and May are already baked in.  We bought that cake in the first month of twiddling our joysticks.  It just hasn't arrived yet.  Tracking says it's "in transit" though.