COVID-19 (No Politics or Economics Please)

[Tilt]

This is a fun place to compare stuff.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

The big debate here (in the UK) is about testing.

Testing for the virus does not save lives (excepting that isolating care workers can confirm if they actually have it or not...…..and if not return to work)

Testing for antibodies only shows those that are "cured".......these folk  can return to normal lives. A country that establishes its "cured" population quickly minimises the financial effects of lockdowned isolation. Financially it is in a better place to recover.

The idea that vaccines are close or around the corner  such that they can be applied to immunise a population during this infection "wave"is considered  a fallacy by any form of expert here.

So the assumption is that those that will die pre vaccine will die.  However if the peak of the wave is greater than the capacity of the medical systems ability to administer the best health care then there will be other deaths....ie those that might not have died.  Italy was an an example of this (it seems to have now peaked) . Spain is considered to be an example of this. Paris has now more intensive cases than it has ICU beds ( intensive cases are now being shipped out of Paris to Brittany and elsewhere).

In the UK we do not yet know. Our level of testing is woeful..but our provision of special care beds and the combined effects of isolating lock down seem to hold out hope.

For sure the lack of testing should mean we are in lock down longer...…. or we risk another wave due to our ignorance.

[DmonSlyr]

You don't have actual respect for scientists or doctors, in general. You parse and pick and look for specific examples to support your extreme views (even to the point of misunderstanding what the claim may be). What's 'wrong' with 'us people' is that we're not your wacko support group and won't buy into your delusions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/europe/coronavirus-science-research-cooperation.html

You are the one with extreme views.

 I'm tired of the socialist communist  propaganda take over of america. I'm tired of watching 70,000k people die a year from Over Doses.  I'm tired of endless wars in the middle east.

Good thing trump is about to use the full force of the military to take down the Cartel all over the Caribbean and remove their drug routes. Good thing he is saving American woman and children "stuck" in Peru and Hondurous. Remember that girl Trump talked about at the beginning of cornona virus press conference last week, who our military generals saved...

George Washington called and said he wasnt gonna have it anymore.

Your clowns and their destruction of America will be exposed. Mark my words.

[asterix]

 
Well that did not take long, enter the politics and conspiracy.

In

[DmonSlyr]

Well that did not take long, enter the politics and conspiracy.

In

Blame the clown trolls in here. I tried to post accurate information  by doctors about hydroxyclorquine and they have to counter me and call me names. Its pathetic. But this is what happens when you challenge "the narrative". It pisses me off that it has to come to this.

[perdue3]

Interesting thing about statistics.

USA and Japan.

USA
Pop: 303million
Cases: 229,873
Deaths: 5,824
Largest City, New York, Pop: 8.5million. Deaths: 2,219

Japan
Pop: 126,476,461
Cases: 2,590
Deaths: 57
Largest City, Tokyo, Pop: 13.9million. Deaths: 56. One death on Hokkaido island.

Japan is doing pretty much what the USA is doing by asking their people to comply and Japan is a culture of compliance to get along. But, they are doing one thing we mostly don't here in the USA. They wear masks when they go into public at all times during this event.

I have a friend in Tokyo who has given me a first-person perspective of the situation. Basically, once the word was out, they shut everything down and quarantined right then and there. Now, everything is fine and people are visiting parks, etc. Here, this did not happen. We heard about it and thought, "Oh, well it is so far away we are fine." "We have it under control" was spewing out of you know where and it hadn't reached us yet. Had we done what Japan did, maybe it would not be as bad. When my friend, who is on these boards, asked what we were doing about it in February, he laughed when I said "nothing." "Wow." That was his expression.

[CptTrips]

Testing for the virus does not save lives

I'm not sure I buy that. 

Testing is vital to lower the R0.  R0 is not an intrinsic number, it is a result of cultural practices and mitigation strategies.  It can be altered.  The less people who get the disease (or even just delaying it as long as possible) will save lives.  Especially since we know there are asymptomatic super-spreaders who do not even know they are infectious.  Testing allows you to identify spreaders and get them isolated to reduce the R0.

As you mentioned, reducing the R0, even temporarily prevents the medical system from becoming saturated.  So that help reduce the CFR, because we have seen that a 1% CFR can climb to 5-10% once the medical system is overloaded. 

Widespread, aggressive testing/contract tracing/isolating the infectious, is one of the best ways to get control of the situation as exemplified by S. Korea.  It starts with testing.

I've been having a long email argument with a friend over this, who was of the opinion that no effort matters because  a vaccine is 18 months away so we are all going to get it anyway so lets just go about our normal business and roll the dice.

My argument back is:

1.  Not everyone is going to get it. As more get it and most hopefully recover, we will approach herd immunity.  As we approach herd immunity, your odds of getting it,  if you haven't already, decrease.  Every day you postpone getting sick increases your odds.  30% of the population may never get it at all due to herd immunity.  You strategy should be to do everything possible to keep yourself, and those you care about, in that magic 30%.

2.  You certainly want to put it off until we have absorbed and processed the massive wave of seriously ill that are all ready on their way due to our delays in taking this seriously.  That is already baked-in.  There is no avoiding it at this point.  Your odds of surviving a serious illness will probably be greater six months from now after that initial wave has been cremated, and additional overflow facilities are fully operational in Hotels and Convention Centers. 

3.  The longer you can delay getting infected, the greater the chance that a cocktail of pharma will be isolated that can help treat and mitigate the worst of the outcomes.  None of them is likely to a magic silver bullet, but even if they can push the odds another 10% into the survival column, then you want those additional odds.

4.  Maybe you are lucky enough and delay it long enough and wake up to an announcement that a vaccine has been approved.

 

   

[DmonSlyr]

I have a friend in Tokyo who has given me a first-person perspective of the situation. Basically, once the word was out, they shut everything down and quarantined right then and there. Now, everything is fine and people are visiting parks, etc. Here, this did not happen. We heard about it and thought, "Oh, well it is so far away we are fine." "We have it under control" was spewing out of you know where and it hadn't reached us yet. Had we done what Japan did, maybe it would not be as bad. When my friend, who is on these boards, asked what we were doing about it in February, he laughed when I said "nothing." "Wow." That was his expression.

Unfortunately, if Trump had called to close the entire country on day 1 when the first nursing home patients got it, they would have called him a dictator making irrational decisions to destroy the economy. And both sides would have been against him. Japan has a much smaller population and doesnt have state government bureaucrats  to deal with. Just the way it is. Somehow its Trumps fault that Seattle couldn't contain a Virus from a nursing home, but I digress.

[Arlo]

Unfortunately, if Trump ... but I digress.

Please leave your 'everyone's out to get Trump' nonsense out of the thread. Not everything is about your hero. 

[Copprhed]

You are the one with extreme views.

 I'm tired of the socialist communist  propaganda take over of america. I'm tired of watching 70,000k people die a year from Over Doses.  I'm tired of endless wars in the middle east.

Good thing trump is about to use the full force of the military to take down the Cartel all over the Caribbean and remove their drug routes. Good thing he is saving American woman and children "stuck" in Peru and Hondurous. Remember that girl Trump talked about at the beginning of cornona virus press conference last week, who our military generals saved...

George Washington called and said he wasnt gonna have it anymore.

Your clowns and their destruction of America will be exposed. Mark my words.

Delusional....just plain delusional. Man, you need to get away from the right wing conspiracy nuts. Hannity is a fool. Limberger is a drug addled fool, and you just have no damned excuse.....

[Busher]

We will have documented evidence by next week.

Wow, even better than HiTech.. he takes 2 weeks.

[CptTrips]

Delusional....just plain delusional. Man, you need to get away from the right wing conspiracy nuts. Hannity is a fool. Limberger is a drug addled fool, and you just have no damned excuse.....

Please drop the politics.  Otherwise you allow him to have control over every topic.  He can get them all closed just by setting up camp and spewing his nutter political garbage until Hitech locks it.  Don't give him that power. 

The best way to scrape him off the bottom of your shoe is to just put him on your ignore list.

[TheBug]

Some weak, damaged little boys will never grow up...

...and continue to engage people like DmonSlyr and get their threads locked. Instead of ignoring them.

[CptTrips]

...and continue to engage people like DmonSlyr and get their threads locked. Instead of ignoring them.

You're right.  He is now on ignore where he belongs.

[Eagler]

Limitations on these threads will not change the fact that this virus in the end will be all about politics and the economy ... not the lives that are going to be saved through these global economic killing measures.

History will show this out IMO

What does it feel like to be on the doorstep of the greatest depression of all times?

I hoping some jackwad does not try to pull us out of it the same way we recovered from the first one..with a world wide war.

I don't think the next one would end the same way..

But when we are desperate enough...

<S>

Eagler

[FLS]

Keep digging guys and remember the next step in the forum virus containment procedure.