Author Topic: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY  (Read 26093 times)

Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #75 on: April 07, 2020, 11:41:00 PM »

Welp, there goes that theory.


Haven't even had lunch yet and new deaths are already 1,371.

Of course, given the progression time, those were probably infected before the quarantine.  If you assume an average 30 cycle we probably won't really be seeing the real benefits of a quarantine for another week.  I jsut thought maybe we were catching a lucky break for a change.

See, that's what I get for trying to be optimistic.  ;)

Yet, still hope.  New cases still have not risen above the 4th. 



First time so far we've had 3 days lower than a previous high.

However as bad as the daily count is, the number that creeps me out more is the Deaths:Recovered.  I've been expecting the Recovered to eventually dominate more.  Its been holding pretty consistent at 40%:60%.  If we don't get some treatment to alter that trend,  that would suggest maybe 160k additional deaths as the current 400,540 cases resolve over the next month.

I'm not sold on hydroxychloroquine yet, but we need to find something that gets us some leverage on this thing.

:salute










« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 11:49:58 PM by CptTrips »
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Offline 1stpar3

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #76 on: April 08, 2020, 02:35:53 AM »
Yet, still hope.  New cases still have not risen above the 4th. 

(Image removed from quote.)

First time so far we've had 3 days lower than a previous high.

However as bad as the daily count is, the number that creeps me out more is the Deaths:Recovered.  I've been expecting the Recovered to eventually dominate more.  Its been holding pretty consistent at 40%:60%.  If we don't get some treatment to alter that trend,  that would suggest maybe 160k additional deaths as the current 400,540 cases resolve over the next month.

I'm not sold on hydroxychloroquine yet, but we need to find something that gets us some leverage on this thing.

:salute
Not Sold on Hydroxy Chloroquine? I am leaning in that direction. When a Dem House Member says it works and "Saved her life" and "THANK YOU TRUMP"....It gives me hope that this division among folk aint as bad as it seems
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Offline LLv34_Snefens

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #77 on: April 08, 2020, 05:33:42 AM »
The inherent problem with anecdotes about succesful treatment methods for potential deadly diseases, is that there is a strong survivor bias to them all.
You don't hear the anecdotes from the people who died, even if they got the same treatment.

I am talking generally here and not particular about hydroxychloroquine. What you really need to be sure is proper blind testing, but that of course takes time, which is in short supply.
In regards to hydroxychlorquine such test have just started here in Denmark, but final results are not expected until after summer.
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Offline Zimme83

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #78 on: April 08, 2020, 09:00:18 AM »
See rule #14
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:43:21 PM by hitech »
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Offline Shuffler

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #79 on: April 08, 2020, 09:03:19 AM »
This morning they said that professionals are estimating a peak around April 15.
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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #80 on: April 08, 2020, 10:27:01 AM »
Getting back to the topic of a prevention discussion ...

Brooke on March 22, 2020, 02:56:31 PM put it well:

Quote
In my family, there were some doctor visits scheduled for non-essential things (looking at a sore shoulder) and some more-essential things (regarding necessary medications).

We cancelled the non-essential ones, but we are keeping the more-essential ones subject to the following steps.

Family member will:
-- Wear n95 mask from time of exiting car onward.
-- Not rub eyes, pick nose, or touch face during visit.
-- Keep separation from other people as possible.
-- Thoroughly disinfect hands with sanitizer after visit before touching car keys, door handle, etc., or entering car.
-- Once home, take off mask by straps and dispose in outside trash.
-- Disinfect hands again before touching door knob to enter house.
-- Upon entry to house, take off shoes and clothes.
-- Clothes go right into open washing machine.
-- Travel right to location of next step without touching anything else in house.
-- Wash hands and face with soap and water, or better yet take a shower.
-- Put on fresh clothes.
-- Go back and close the washing machine and start it washing.
-- Use alcohol to rub down any credit or medical cards used, then wash hands.

I do some of these steps even for visiting the gas station with no-one else around me, namely:
-- Not rub eyes, pick nose, or touch face during visit.
-- Thoroughly disinfect hands with sanitizer after visit before touching car keys, door handle, etc., or entering car.
-- Disinfect hands again before touching door knob to enter house.
-- Use alcohol to rub down any credit cards used, then wash hands.
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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #81 on: April 08, 2020, 10:28:55 AM »
Removing Gloves Properly and Safely Technique | How to Remove Gloves

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #82 on: April 08, 2020, 10:45:37 AM »
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:45:10 PM by hitech »
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Offline Spikes

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #83 on: April 08, 2020, 11:22:14 AM »
This morning they said that professionals are estimating a peak around April 15.
They said the same weeks ago too, not much has changed which I suppose is a good thing.
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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #84 on: April 08, 2020, 11:38:50 AM »
I wanted to highlight this link again.

https://covidpapers.github.io/posts/stability-of-sars-cov-2-in-different-environmental-conditions/

As more research comes in on the survival characteristics of this thing, subtle but important changes in how long, under what conditions, and on what types of surfaces this thing survives on are being published.

Among important recent updates/changes to keep in mind is that:

“SARS-CoV-2 can be stable on the inner and outer layer of masks up to 7 days”

It was also found to be stable on stainless steel and plastic for up to 4 days.


In other words, keeping your groceries for 3 days in the garage may not be enough time all cases.


Even more important, however, is to keep in mind the temperature:

At 39.2 F (4C), about the temperature of the inside of refrigerator, this thing does not appear to die off.

At 71.6F (22C), (a nice summer day), it can take up to 7 days for the virus to “die”

At 98.6F (37C), (a hot summer day), it can take up to a day for the virus to “die”



What I take from this is that when we bring home a gallon of milk, that unless we bath the container in bleach for 6 minutes, we shouldn’t consider it sterile.

(BTW: this is from and for Clorox products.  Adjust as needed for the brand you have access to.)

https://www.clorox.com/how-to/disinfecting-sanitizing/cold-flu-other-diseases/how-to-make-your-own-disinfecting-solution/

(On the general topic of food: https://www.consumerreports.org/food-storage/how-to-extend-food-expiration-dates/ )

The only item that has me puzzled is the data on the effectiveness of hand soap.  I’ll try to talk to someone who might be able shed some light on that data set and post an update if/when I can.

Stay Safe!

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Offline SysError

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #85 on: April 08, 2020, 11:57:44 AM »
PSA Grocery Shopping Tips in COVID-19



Note:  please see post above about updated time/temp studies.
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Offline BoilerDown

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #86 on: April 08, 2020, 12:03:33 PM »


We're don't go back to a semblance of normal until there's a vaccine, which means 18 months from now.  Don't fool yourselves.
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Offline Arlo

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #87 on: April 08, 2020, 12:14:18 PM »
Bless that doc for offering a video to help ensure our food is Covid-19 free but maintaining a sterile field in surgery is more in-depth than what he portrayed. Granted, there is no way to mimic those practices exactly without the supplies and equipment needed to do so (autoclave, clean room, several changes of gloves, pre-sterilized and wrapped gowns, etc.) but his being glove and mask free and wiping the lettuce everywhere but where he held/touched it made me wince a bit.

Offline CptTrips

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #88 on: April 08, 2020, 12:24:34 PM »


We're don't go back to a semblance of normal until there's a vaccine, which means 18 months from now.  Don't fool yourselves.

Thanks.  That was an intelligent discussion.
 :salute
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Offline Firetech

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Re: Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY
« Reply #89 on: April 08, 2020, 12:44:48 PM »
See rule #14
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:58:44 PM by hitech »