Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[CptTrips]

Simple you show him video of crash test dummy's and the g load data. Then it is no longer opinion/conjecture. Up until then it is.

He would say, "Well, that's different!  My arms are stronger than a test dummy.  Apples and oranges."  Basically you can't prove to someone who has made their mind up a hypothetical after the event. 

What you don't do is blindly assume that confining people to their house , is better then other forms of prevention.

You mean other than 200 years of epidemiology?

Why do you think they quarantined tuberculous patients before they had a vaccine?  Do you think the illness would not have spread if they just let them wander New York and Chicago?

The real issue is we were way behind the curve. We might not have had to quarantine as hard if we had acted earlier and tested more aggressively to isolate the initial clusters.  But we flubbed it on so many levels.  On an exponential curve the best leverage you have are in the initial days.  After you let it pick up steam, it takes much more dramatic efforts to bend the curve later.

[SysError]

False analogy. It is not a binary choice of what to do. More like do I turn left,right, increase decent rate or slow decent rate to miss that tree. Because if I continue to take the current path that tree is going to mess me up, and possible kill me.

HiTech

Note to Self: don't hire HiTech as your Jumpmaster

[hitech]

When has are entire population been quarantined with the people who aren't sick versus the people who are not sick.

In fact here your quarantine sick people with non sick people.

I cannot prove if the isolation is working or not working but nor can you I would like to see your evidence that it is.

[hitech]

Note to Self: don't hire HiTech as your Jumpmaster

I would never want to jump out a perfectly good airplane.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

I cannot prove if the isolation is working or not working but nor can you I would like to see your evidence that it is.

You don't think the flattening of the new US cases curve looks like quarantine has had an effect?




I have read several articles recently studying approaches to past pandemics to try and draw lessons. 

In particular looking at different US cities during the 1918 Influenza.  Consistently cities that acted quickly and decisively fared better:

Economists Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner released a working paper (not yet peer-reviewed) last week that makes this argument extremely persuasively. The three analyzed the 1918-1919 flu pandemic in the United States, as the closest (though still not identical) analogue to the current crisis. They compare cities in 1918-’19 that adopted quarantining and social isolation policies earlier to ones that adopted them later.

Their conclusion? “We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over.”

The takeaway is clear: These policies not only led to better health outcomes, they in turn led to better economic outcomes. Pandemics are very bad for the economy, and stopping them is good for the economy.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing

But I know, you just say: 
"That paper wasn't peer reviewed yet."
"This isn't the flu."
"That was then, this is now."

So, whatever.  I'm sure even this administration looked at the best available models of both the possible loss of life and economic costs.  They looked at the trade-offs and made a judgement call.


You say no one can prove it either way, yet in the real world where people just don't argue on the internet, decisions have to be made on imperfect information.  That is what you get paid for.  You can't just throw up your hands and say "you can't prove it either way!"  Tough.  A judgement call has to be made.

On a good note, if you don't agree with the judgement call on quarantine, you'll have the opportunity to express your displeasure officially come the Fall. 

[hitech]

I never said it could not be proved whether the quarantine work I said you and I can not do so at this time.

I don't see any fault with the conclusions of the paper.but if you notice they didn't take the same measures we did they did normal quarantine and safety precautions i e social distance. They shut down large gatherings like school.

The issue I'm speaking out strictly deals to the stay-at-home type orders. They also did not completely shut down their economy.

your speak of I don't like it therefore I get to vote in december is a cop out on any discussion.

PS I hate doing BBS on a phone.

My main point is that I have not seen any data that supports the conclusion that the stay-at-home orders had any positive effect. that's not the same as saying don't take any precautions many of the precautions as we have taken I agree with.

HiTech.

[CptTrips]

The issue I'm speaking out strictly deals to the stay-at-home type orders. They also did not completely shut down their economy.

Neither did we.  I work from home.  So do a lot of people right?  I just ordered $400 bucks worth of stuff off the internet today.   Sounds like commerce to me.

You're still charging $15 a month aren't you?  Sounds like commerce to me.

Apparently we haven't "completely" shut down our economy.

your speak of I don't like it therefore I get to vote in december is a cop out on any discussion.

Uhhhmmm...November I think.    Oh, wait, we have a special one for people like you in December.  I forgot.  Be sure and wait for that one. 

My main point is that I have not seen any data that supports the conclusion that the stay-at-home orders had any positive effect.

No, No, lets play the other way around.

I want you to provide me absolute proof that Stay-at-Home orders had no positive effect.

And don't quote me "PatriotWarriorTreehouseMAGA.c om".  Show me a study that proves that from a US university or Military think-tank, not a website run by someone living in their Mom's basement. 

[Arlo]

This is not boding well. 

[Oldman731]

This is not boding well.

But all the analogies are enjoyable.  Parachutes, seat belts...waiting for the lifeboats and sharks.

- oldman

[CptTrips]

The real point is that it is generally nonsensical to demand proof that a course of action is best in a situation like this.

There is no proof either way, as Hitech admitted.  Never the less, a decision has to be made by those responsible.  They look at the best models and estimates they have of both epidemiological and economic projections and examine the trade-offs and make a judgement call.  Some one has to make a decision on imperfect information.

A decision occurs when you have imperfect information and no absolute proof and no option that is completely without down side.

If you had absolute proof, that is not even a decision.  That's called arithmetic. 

They looked at the models and estimates they had and decided that a dramatic measure was needed (especially since we were slow to react) to slow down the infections long enough for us to get up to speed and do the preparations needed to face it.  It the short term we can float the economy with national debt (yeah, I know...).  On the other hand, dead people stay dead forever.  Or if they don't, I guess you have bigger problems.

Get used to quarantine.  You will probably see it again at some point over the next 12-18 months.


 

[Busher]

Look at Canada. While it was also slow to "shut down", the stay at home orders were broadly imposed and while the disease still grows, its expanding at a dramatically slower rate, even in the huge population centers like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

[hitech]

I'm really getting tired of these straw men. Please show me where I asked for proof I ask for evidence completely different things.

I can provide evidence that stay at home did nothing take a look at Sweden's numbers take a look at North Dakota's numbers.

Please note I said evidence not proof.
HiTech

[CptTrips]

Sweden, which is an international outlier in resisting a lockdown, has suffered a much higher death toll than its Nordic neighbours, even adjusting for its population being roughly double that of Norway, Denmark or Finland. As of Wednesday, Sweden had 1,203 deaths due to coronavirus, against 143 for Norway, 309 for Denmark and 72 for Finland.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency

[CptTrips]

To me, the important thing to see here isn't the totals, which are never the less illuminating. 

The critical thing to grasp in this chart are the slopes of the disease progression curves.  It is the rate of change that is striking.

Things are getting worse significantly faster in Sweden than it's other Nordic neighbors, regardless of totals, or populations, due to their unwillingness to socially distance. 

Things will continue to get worse significantly faster in Sweden.

[guncrasher]

I'm really getting tired of these straw men. Please show me where I asked for proof I ask for evidence completely different things.

I can provide evidence that stay at home did nothing take a look at Sweden's numbers take a look at North Dakota's numbers.

Please note I said evidence not proof.
HiTech

I totally understand what you are saying, but I am not gonna risk my wife, my kids or my grandkids to prove a point.  can my grandkids die due to unforseen forces, yes, but that is down the line.  what we have now is corona virus. maybe later, much later then will die of something else.


semp