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Transcript of article plus charts follow:
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A healthcare official in Huntsville on Monday pointed firmly at the Memorial Day weekend last month soon after Alabama began to reopen as a cause of surges in coronavirus cases.
“Our current case growth is most likely linked to the Memorial Day festivities and reopening,” said Dr. Pam Hudson, CEO of Crestwood Medical Center in south Huntsville. “While it may be difficult to prove that, except in hindsight, I think we’re experiencing a small taste of how that can be (in Huntsville). Around the state, this certainly has been more clearly linked.”
Madison County, home of Huntsville, has seen a sharp increase in positive COVID-19 tests in recent days – a trend mirrored across much of the state. To the southeast, Morgan County, home of Decatur, is also seeing a rapid spike in new cases.
The upbeat briefings in Huntsville in April and early May are gone. “This past weekend showed we have a long road ahead and more work to do,” Madison County Commission Chair Dale Strong said Monday.
Since Memorial Day, Madison County added 269 new coronavirus cases, a 91 percent increase. Morgan County added 473 new cases since then, a staggering 287 percent increase.
“One of the things we’ve been talking about over the past weeks is the anticipated rise in discovered cases once we reopened our community and certainly following Memorial Day weekend,” said Hudson. “It is rather stark when you look at the fact that more cases in the last 14 days than any other time since March. And that 50 percent of the increase is coming from these newly discovered cases.”
Chart: Ramsey Archibald - Source:
Alabama Department of Public Health While both counties saw their new case counts start to go up after the Memorial Day weekend, it seems likely the holiday had more of an impact on Madison County’s case numbers than Morgan’s.
Morgan County – which borders Madison County to the southwest -- has seen an average of 22.5 new cases every day since Memorial Day. But Morgan County’s spike began essentially on Memorial Day itself - May 25.
The virus is thought to have an incubation period that can last as long as 14 days, though is often between four and five days. It’s unlikely the holiday weekend would have caused such a large increase in cases so soon in Morgan County.
Madison County, on the other hand, saw cases increase dramatically starting almost exactly two weeks after the holiday. The 7-day average for new cases there went from 6.9 on June 7, two weeks after the holiday, to a high of 25.7 on Monday. That’s a 275 percent increase in the 7-day average in just over a week.
Chart: Ramsey Archibald - Source:
Alabama Department of Public HealthIn Madison County, there has been a “significant increase” in the number of African Americans testing positive, Hudson said. She said that new cases in recent weeks are about an even split between black and white residents – a disproportionate burden given that blacks make up only 25 percent of the county population.
“Blacks are over-represented in the test positives,” Hudson said.
The age demographic has also trended young, Hudson said, with the majority of cases in the 24 to 49 age group.
Hudson advocated for wearing masks and said that studies have shown that not only do they protect the people around you, a face covering can help insulate the wearer as well.
“Evidence is now that even the cloth masks can protect the wearer from about 80 percent of virus particles,” Hudson said. “Masks reduce the number of virus particles that get past the barrier and that means 80 percent can’t reach your nose and mouth, which is the way we catch this. Having a smaller viral attack rate means your body has a better chance of winning the battle and having a less severe illness. So wear your mask. The life you save may be your own.”