The Great Unwinding

[CptTrips]

As the market is now 500 points higher...actually more as it was negative...is confirmation to me he didn't raise it enough..

That bump didn't appear to have much conviction to it.  Dropped back down by almost by half.

I doubt that is durable.  We'll see.  I'll be more interested in a couple of days as the news is processed.  I'll be much more interested in how Fri ends.

[zack1234]

The only one going hysterical over books in this forum is you (demanding everyone else read books, demanding to know what books they read, refusing to believe they read, refusing to prove you do). 

You believe the American civil war was fought to free slaves.

1 nil to me

You actually believe it don’t you

You people using TV programs created by executives so they can make more money to invest in China.

TV programs are not reality they are a product like beans to make money out of people like you 

Fantastic hero’s are going to save the world

Books are kryptonite to the illiterate

Why people respond to my gibberish is awesome

[Eagler]

The slower they are with their action the longer the pain IMO.

I would rather have a very messy year and then a reversal instead of 5 years to some sort of "soft" landing

I think the longer it drags out the more smaller businesses will go broke..which is part of these cycles IMO

Eagler

[CptTrips]

That bump didn't appear to have much conviction to it.  Dropped back down by almost by half.

I doubt that is durable.  We'll see.

DJA -760 in the first 5 min of open. 


Smart-Money says, "Keep buying those dips, bruh."

[Eagler]

Under 30k and 3700 finally..

Interesting times ahead!

Figure with the change in November coming, by 2024 the fed will reverse course and start lowering rates and firing up QE for the next bubble..

That's when I hope to buy the dip

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Figure with the change in November coming, by 2024 the fed will reverse course and start lowering rates and firing up QE for the next bubble..

That's when I hope to buy the dip

Hard to pin dates. 

My thinking is based on gate conditions:

1.  When Fed announces they are pausing rate hikes I plan to start DCA into bonds.

2.  6 months after that, or when S&P gets to around 3000, which ever comes first, start DCA into stocks.  But not getting too aggressive until around 2500-2000.  It could go as low as 1500, but I'll just DCA around the low part of that inflection.  I don't have to hit the exact bottom. just not the top or only half way down. 

[Edit]  That is not financial advice, BTW.  That is just what I'm doing.

[Eagler]

Yes hard to date but politics are always involved one way or another

Eagler

[CptTrips]

I wonder if we are hitting margin calls.

[Arlo]

You believe the American civil war was fought to free slaves.

1 nil to me

You actually believe it don’t you

You people using TV programs created by executives so they can make more money to invest in China.

TV programs are not reality they are a product like beans to make money out of people like you 

Fantastic hero’s are going to save the world

Books are kryptonite to the illiterate

Why people respond to my gibberish is awesome

No, you can't have a handout from me. I will offer you thoughts and prayers, though. Well, maybe thoughts. Well, maybe neither. You'll have to try harder. 

[RotBaron]

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wstyx/quote

50% loss in less than a year, Morningstar took away a star - now it’s 3star, and someone renamed it Delaware Ivy Science & Technology. 

   

Looks like it’s even increased management fees too.  Went paperless with TDAmeritrade and lost track 😡

That’s just one of a few of mine that took nosedives.

[CptTrips]

That’s just one of a few of mine that took nosedives.

Could be worse.  It could have been Cathy Wood's ARKK.  -61% YTD. 

The entire market could be down 60% from the Nov high, but tech sector in particular could reach -80% as it is disproportionately inflation and interest rate sensitive.  That would be on par with the tech bubble crash.  Might take a long painful 12 more months to grind out. 

During that time there will probably be several sucker rallies.  I expect one at least to be an all out hail-mary that might look a whole lot like we reached the bottom.  Then it implodes again.  The system is designed to squeeze every last available buck out of every muppet until there are no greater fools left to be found.  Then it will complete it's decline and bottom.

After this mess bottoms out, buying at that point will provide fantastic opportunities for upside over the following decade.  But those who bought at last Nov peak won't break-even again until ~2031. In fact, that really goes for anything bought over the 5 years or so. 

It took the NASDAQ 14 years to get back to even from where it was at right before the bubble crash. 

Fourteen.  Years.

[Eagler]

Maybe or they all lose their marbles and balls and immediately turn QE back on and start lowering interest rates to save the day..after patting themselves on the back for a job well done...

In that case I am expecting another 24 months like we have experienced since the March 2020 drop..

Do you actually think they learned anything and the future will be any different?

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Do you actually think they learned anything and the future will be any different?

Nope.  If Fed starts massive printing, all my previous points simply get pushed to some other time in the future. 

Eventually the same thing has to happen.  They might can push it off again, but the effect just continues to compound.

Eventually, the piper will be paid.  One way, or another.

I don't bother getting mad about it, or moralizing, or wishing it was different.  There is little point.  I'll leave others to tilt at windmills.  I'll just concentrate on trying to figure out how the system is functioning, how to exploit it, and how to make money off what is going to happen anyway beyond my control.

[morfiend]

Nope.

I don't bother getting mad about it, or moralizing, or wishing it was different.  There is little point.  I'll leave others to tilt at windmills.  I'll just concentrate on trying to figure out how the system is functioning, how to exploit it, and how to make money off what is going to happen anyway beyond my control.

 I couldn’t agree more,like the 06/08 bubble burst,I simply lowered my expectation and made some moves to mitigate a major loss. This was done again at the start of the plannedemic.

 The only problem is if you carry debt,that’s gonna cost you and I’d hate to have to renew a mortgage in the next few months.



   <S>

[zack1234]

No, you can't have a handout from me. I will offer you thoughts and prayers, though. Well, maybe thoughts. Well, maybe neither. You'll have to try harder. 

Pray?

Why would I want a prayer from the likes of you?

I don’t want or need anything from a Liberal.

Obama is your hero

I win