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Author Topic: Tricky  (Read 1980 times)

Offline AKIron

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Tricky
« on: February 11, 2023, 12:40:52 PM »
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Offline Elfie

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2023, 01:05:30 PM »
I watched that but I had to read the locked threads first.  :D
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Offline -gg-

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2023, 01:07:51 PM »
I paused the video after the scenario was explained and have not restarted it.

The coin is only going to ever have a 50/50 chance of landing on heads. When she's awakened, she doesn't know if it's Monday or Tuesday and it doesn't really matter. The coin was tossed one time and it was either heads or tails. The only difference is how many times she was awakened for the one coin toss.

Heads is a 50/50 chance. She's going to be awakened no matter what the coin lands on and the coin has only a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.



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Offline -gg-

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2023, 01:16:00 PM »
I mean, this isn't even a puzzle to me. I don't get it.

If she was asked what are the odds that' she's been awakened twice - it's 50/50. 

There's no conundrum at all that I see. They toss the coin one time and it's either heads or tails. it doesn't matter if she's awake or asleep. Nothing changes, even from her point of view.

The only thing she can't know is whether or not she was awakened twice or once. Heads or tails. She doesn't know which, but it's 50/50
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Offline -gg-

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2023, 01:20:10 PM »
I continued the video

The guys says "there are 3 possible states. Monday heads, Monday Tails or Tuesday tails."

That's not correct. There are only two possible states FOR THE COIN TOSS. either it was heads and it's Monday, or it was tails and it's either Monday or Tuesday

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Offline TyFoo

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2023, 01:25:47 PM »
It comes down on how a person applies the law of probability.
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Offline AKIron

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2023, 01:29:13 PM »
I think he is wrong in saying it's not the same as the three doors question. I think it is the same, a matter of perspective and knowing what the possibilities are.
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Offline -gg-

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2023, 01:39:24 PM »
I honestly do not get the issue.

It doesn't matter what day it is or anything else. It's one coin toss each week and it's always going to be a 50/50 chance that its heads.


The only difference between heads and tails is the number of times they wake her up to ask.



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Offline 100Coogn

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2023, 01:47:16 PM »
There's also a chance that it can land on end.
Nothing has absolute improbability.

Coogan
« Last Edit: February 11, 2023, 01:49:07 PM by 100Coogn »
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Offline AKIron

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2023, 01:49:43 PM »
Quote from: 100Coogn on February 11, 2023, 01:47:16 PM
There's also a chance that it can land on end.
Nothing has absolute improbability.

Coogan

In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)

What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?
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Offline 100Coogn

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2023, 01:50:55 PM »
Quote from: AKIron on February 11, 2023, 01:49:43 PM
In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)

What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?
:rofl  True.

Coogan
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Offline Elfie

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2023, 02:08:12 PM »
Quote from: AKIron on February 11, 2023, 01:49:43 PM
In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)

What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?

I once dropped a cigarette butt on the ground and it landed on the filter end, standing up and I thought, wow I bet that never happens again. A couple of years later it did. ;)
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Corkyjr on country jumping:
In the end you should be thankful for those players like us who switch to try and help keep things even because our willingness to do so, helps a more selfish, I want it my way player, get to fly his latewar uber ride.

Offline AKIron

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2023, 02:21:15 PM »
Let's say the odds of flipping a coin and it lands on it's edge is 1 in a gazillion. Let's say you flip a coin and it lands on it's edge. What are the odds of the next flip doing the same? Still 1 in a gazillion. The odds against flipping two in a row are far greater before you flip one than the odds of flipping two in a row after you already flipped one.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2023, 02:23:57 PM by AKIron »
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Offline -gg-

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2023, 02:22:51 PM »
I once picked up a guitar string from the carpet. As I picked it up, the curled far end briefly got caught in the carpet, then sprung and went right into a wall AC outlet and shorted it out while the other end was still in my hand. The string glowed orange for a second and left a burn mark on the wall.

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Offline 100Coogn

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Re: Tricky
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2023, 02:32:10 PM »
Quote from: AKIron on February 11, 2023, 02:21:15 PM
Let's say the odds of flipping a coin and it lands on it's edge is 1 in a gazillion. Let's say you flip a coin and it lands on it's edge. What are the odds of the next flip doing the same? Still 1 in a gazillion. The odds against flipping two in a row are far greater before you flip one than the odds of flipping two in a row after you already flipped one.

True.  The odds are against you, but there is still a chance.  Sure probably not going to happen...  Or is it?

Coogan
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Quote
From Wiley: If you're hitting them after they drop, that's not defense, that is revenge.
Game Id's:
AHIII: Coogan
RDR2: Coogan_Bear
MSFS-2020: Coogan Bear
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