Economics discussion (not political!)

[Busher]

Dude, sorry, but you appear to not know what you’re talking about.

I just showed you proof and you call proof fear mongering. Thats rich.

What I showed is reality, its not guessing, its not predicting,… this IS this. A lot of my friends just list 1000% by no fault if their own. You go tell them its just fear mongering.

Go look at the msrkets, we ARE going to recession

Well said. But you have to remember that his hero can do not wrong in his mind.

The economic theory that taxes on foreign made products will induce investment to move that production home is doomed. Investors will never commit billions to the process of re-shifting manufacturing back into the U.S. That process would take years and said years usually implies different policy makers in the "decision jobs".

Onshoring requires immense investment and changes in land use, plant construction, power grid changes and improvements, work force education and training (in a negative birth rate country) and possibly most importantly a complete redefinition of the supply chain. And you have to accomplish this after having turned every economic ally you previously had into a sworn enemy.

Good luck.

[AKIron]

Not political? I'm losing points just reading this.

[CptTrips]

No rational person would describe WSJ or National Review as liberal rags. 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/04/americans-will-pay-the-price-for-reckless-tariffs/

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-liberation-day-tariffs-protectionism-82d0aa3a


Oh well.  There is no avoiding it now.  America has bought the ticket.  Now they get to take the ride.

[Edit]  Yeah.  I got points to spend, beotches.   


Anyone notice Russia and Belarus were no where on that list, but some of our longest and most trusted and loyal allies are?  Like NATO partners.  Canada?  Japan?  Does that strike anyone as oddly inconsistent?

Also in that interview with Bret Baier, Bessent also said regarding the absence of any new tariffs on certain countries, “Russia and Belarus, we don’t trade with.”

Not true, at least as of 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:

U.S. goods exports to Russia in 2024 were $526.1 million, down 12.3 percent ($73.5 million) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $3.0 billion in 2024, down 34.2 percent ($1.6 billion) from 2023.

That’s considerably less than it used to be, but $3 billion in imports from Russia is not nothing.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-trump-teams-sit-back-take-it-in-advice-to-irked-allies-and-trade-partners/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=third

[CptTrips]

Small caps just officially entered bear market range.  Virtually in half a day.

And the targets have not even announced their tariff responses yet.

Fri will be interesting.   I'm curios how much smart money wants to hold on to this hot mess over a weekend.

[Eagler]

Onshoring requires immense investment and changes in land use, plant construction, power grid changes and improvements, work force education and training (in a negative birth rate country) and possibly most importantly a complete redefinition of the supply chain. And you have to accomplish this after having turned every economic ally you previously had into a sworn enemy.

Good luck.

Gotta agree..America these days doesn't have the patience..and with election cycles every 2 years, the policy  will be yanked way before it has any real effect...except raising prices on already inflated prices

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Just FYI for those keeping score.

Roughly $2.5 trillion has been wiped away from the U.S. stock market so far today.

And I haven't even had lunch yet.   

[turt21]

Hello all, sitting across the world in little old NZ I wanted to point something out to some of my Americans friends that I'm sure many understand, but not all do.

Over the years my little old country of New Zealand has gradually decreased import duties/tariffs to almost nothing. All we pay on most goods nowadays is GST (Goods and Services Tax, also called VAT in some countries, sales tax in US states iirc). This is good, as when I was young in the 70s we had huge duties on stuff like electronics. The reason was protectionism for local industry. But the reality was a huge duty on TV imports because someone in our local industry thought one day they might make a TV, or made radios and radios=tv (politican minds) there we should put a duty on TV imports.

So over the years the duties/tariffs have disappeared and that made us Kiwis happy.

Why did it make us happy, well many of the goods that had tariffs applied to them just weren't available from local manufacturers - or the ones they did make were of dubious quality or lacked the same features.

The cold hard reality was the only people that benefited from the duties/tariffs were... the government. Because the people who paid for the tariffs were not the people who exported the goods to NZ, but us... the local kiwis. So if an imported TV cost  $1000 NZ pesos, and the tariff was 30%, then us Kiwis paid $1300. Of that $1000 went to the people who made the TV, and $300 went to the government.

The exporters Did not pay the tarrifs but they sufferred as a result because of that added $300 from fewer sales.

[Shuffler]

Hello all, sitting across the world in little old NZ I wanted to point something out to some of my Americans friends that I'm sure many understand, but not all do.

Over the years my little old country of New Zealand has gradually decreased import duties/tariffs to almost nothing. All we pay on most goods nowadays is GST (Goods and Services Tax, also called VAT in some countries, sales tax in US states iirc). This is good, as when I was young in the 70s we had huge duties on stuff like electronics. The reason was protectionism for local industry. But the reality was a huge duty on TV imports because someone in our local industry thought one day they might make a TV, or made radios and radios=tv (politican minds) there we should put a duty on TV imports.

So over the years the duties/tariffs have disappeared and that made us Kiwis happy.

Why did it make us happy, well many of the goods that had tariffs applied to them just weren't available from local manufacturers - or the ones they did make were of dubious quality or lacked the same features.

The cold hard reality was the only people that benefited from the duties/tariffs were... the government. Because the people who paid for the tariffs were not the people who exported the goods to NZ, but us... the local kiwis. So if an imported TV cost  $1000 NZ pesos, and the tariff was 30%, then us Kiwis paid $1300. Of that $1000 went to the people who made the TV, and $300 went to the government.

Now to be honest, the removal of all tariffs did end up killing some local industries. But we diversified and focused on what we do well - instead of doing a half arse job of things we are not good at. But I just wanted to point out that for me, in NZ, tariffs were always a form of tax against us kiwis ... not the foreign manufacturers. And I was glad to see them go, there were some quite horrific duties on computer gear for a while.

I can see why you might think that way in NZ. The US has the ability to manufacture most everything we need. We have in the past and can in the future. We can do so without supporting countries that do not mutually support us. This is but a small item when it comes to the money that is sent to other countries for other reasons. Those "one way" handouts are also beginning to wane.

I am glad to see you are happy. NZ is pretty amazing.

[Puma44]

IN

[Busher]

The US has the ability to manufacture most everything we need.

The operative word in your statement is "most". I would encourage you to take 10 minutes to research what the USA has too little of.. or none of... and then decide if it's essential to American daily life. Maybe you like banana slices on your morning cereal when you enjoy your coffee.

[CptTrips]

The game is of course rigged (at least in the short term).

Of course, everyone is lying to you.  Like in a poker game.  Watch smart money run thing up in before hours trading whipping up excitement of the dumb money so that when markets open they all dive in in fear of missing out.  Then use high-speed trading to pull out first leaving mom and pop holding the bag, slack-jawed.  Smart money has enough weight to temporarily manipulate the market like that. But they can't levitate the market unnaturally forever. 

Sometimes they will even engineer a longer running sucker's rally to pull in the last of the skeptics.  Eventually gravity can not be denied.

Of course, this time is never different.  Nor will the next time be.  Or the next.

That doesn't mean you can't make money.  You just have to understand the game.

[Animl-AW]

Just FYI for those keeping score.

Roughly $2.5 trillion has been wiped away from the U.S. stock market so far today.

And I haven't even had lunch yet.   

8 trillion in 2-3 weeks
Some people aren’t going to listen, the only way they will learn is to feel the pain directly. Reality us surreal fir them.. Until then they are 8 ft tall and bullet proof.

[Animl-AW]

Tariffs were placed on uninhabited islands, nothing but penguins. I hope they pay up. Its all made up of thin air. A lotta thought out in thus <eye roll>

[Eagler]

There isn't any wealth until it's cashed out...just sleepless nights

Just hoping for 5% 12 month cds again...screw the rest of this manipulation

Eagler

[Animl-AW]

Well said. But you have to remember that his hero can do not wrong in his mind.

The economic theory that taxes on foreign made products will induce investment to move that production home is doomed. Investors will never commit billions to the process of re-shifting manufacturing back into the U.S. That process would take years and said years usually implies different policy makers in the "decision jobs".

Onshoring requires immense investment and changes in land use, plant construction, power grid changes and improvements, work force education and training (in a negative birth rate country) and possibly most importantly a complete redefinition of the supply chain. And you have to accomplish this after having turned every economic ally you previously had into a sworn enemy.

Good luck.

What was done to some of these countries is war worthy.
Why would anyone invest in a country who coukd wipe your earning on a flake whim. Its nit going to happen, the markets may not recover where they WERE

This is reality, it can’t be talked away