We are ramping up our semiconductor plants which will eventually make Taiwan less relevant to us. If China is smart they'll wait until we no longer need Taiwan before invading.
Demographically and financially they can't wait the 5-10 years it would take up to get ramped up enough to not care about Taiwan.
I think if they attack in the midst of the coming mid-term when we are maximally distracted and divided, at which time we will also be crotch deep in a economic malaise, facing hard decision on an increasingly hot war in Europe that threatens NATO. I think they could pull it off.
We won't go all in for Taiwan. They won't be dumb enough to hit Japan-Korea defensive line in the north or the Philippines defensive line in the south and force our hand.
We will protest loudly, make some token show of force and then fall back to our Japan-Korea-Philippine-Australia defensive perimeter.
We will impose sanctions they will cut off chip availability and we won't be ready to replace it yet. Checkmate.
Negotiations will then be had, and the name Taiwan will fade from History.
