Taiwan

[Eagler]

Seems as good of time as any for China to make a move..

Does anyone think we can/ would try to prevent it?

Is it worth American lives?

Eagler

[AKIron]

I expect we will move to defend Taiwan if China invades. I think the shooting will be limited to there.

[CptTrips]

Seems as good of time as any for China to make a move..

Demographically and financially, like Russian's grab for the old Soviet defensive perimeter; it's now or never.

Sometime between now and 2027, But if we are in the middle of a war defending NATO against Russia, and fighting a complete financial collapse at the same time, I'd think that only can accelerate the time table.

Are we betting?  I'd say in the midst of the coming mid-terms.

[RUSH1]

I don't think American lives will be in question.  American/global will is what I worry about. 

China has at least a 70% dependence on the U.S. and its allies for more than 400 items, ranging from luxury goods to raw materials needed for Chinese industries, a new analysis of trade data has found.

WSJ

I believe I read that America, alone, accounts for 25% of China's economy.  Never mind China's reliance on slave labor, their human rights record, or the fact that they are a communist adversary ... see why distancing ourselves from them economically, no matter how hard it is short term, makes sense?

[Eagler]

I expect we will move to defend Taiwan if China invades. I think the shooting will be limited to there.

I think that is wishful thinking..

I'd think they have a covid up their sleeve that'll make 2020 look like a mild cold to start..

Would not surprise me if it isn't released 1st just to stir us up internally - as if we need help with that..

Eagler

[Brooke]

Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles).  I'd factor that into what would happen.

[RUSH1]

Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles).  I'd factor that into what would happen.

Good point.  Never should have gotten to this point and we're all to blame. 

[CptTrips]

Without Taiwan, say goodbye to many US products with semiconductors in them (like cars, electronic equipment, airplanes, missiles).  I'd factor that into what would happen.

The super super high end stuff is still made here.

China current can make the low end stuff like for smart toasters and refrigerators.  But only with the equipment they purchase from the West.

All the high and mid range stuff can only be fabricated in Taiwan I believe (not my area of expertise).

They don't even have to invade.  I wouldn't.  Not worth the investment.  Instead you show you are wiling to simple reach and destroy that capacity if you don't get your way.  OR if you want to invade, any interference will result it that capability destroyed. 

"He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it." - Muad-Dib

That is not something the West can replace immediately.  Not just the equipment but the highly trained and skilled workforce.  Taiwan has spent decades cultivating that capability and up-training it's workforce exactly for that industry.  It would take up 5-10 years to friend-shore that now if they toast Taiwan.

My guess is we would be very angry, and fall back the the Philippines defensive line.

[AKIron]

We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.

[RUSH1]

We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.

Our full wrath should/is being carried out economically. 

[Busher]

very confused...

“I had a very strong relationship with him. He was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend - I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ - but I got along with him great.”

Not my words but certainly doesn't like a prequel to conflict.

[CptTrips]

We have powerful forces in quick striking distance of Taiwan. Taiwan may be rendered useless to us and China but I don't believe China wants to face our full wrath.

Unless we are so deep in other fires that the public won't tolerate more.

There is only so much drama and complexity simultaneously they will tolerate.

[RUSH1]

very confused...

“I had a very strong relationship with him. He was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend - I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ - but I got along with him great.”

Not my words but certainly doesn't like a prequel to conflict.

Weak. 

[icepac]

If china sends a few of the thousands of military age men who entered our country illegally to shoot up a bunch of power sub-stations at the same moment, the US will be busy taking care of themselves. 

A big hurricane event like last year would be when to cause the blackout.

[AKIron]

We have a large military presence about 400 miles away on Okinawa. Other forces not a lot farther. And of course mobile fleets. If China attacks Taiwan and limits their offensive to that we'll still respond but likely only to the forces there. If China attacks Okinawa all bets are off.