Skurj,
I depends on the ammo selected first. The HE round wouldn't have much chance due to the trajectory (like a rainbow) just to get there. The impact would have to be solid with a shaped charge warhead and a square on placement relative to the armor. A glancing hit would cause the high temp jet to miss the aarmor or just score it on the side instead of going straight through.
The non shaped charge HE round would have to be square to the armor and would likely cause spalling rather than a penetration. Spalling means that the explosive would cause fragments of the armor INSIDE the tank, opposite of the explosive to break off and zing around inside at bulet velocities. Rather nasty stuff for the crew and any exposed ammo.
Velocity is a non critical factor for the HE rounds as it doesn't add any penetration capability to the ammo, just hitting qualities. Ya gotta hit it to kill the target. If you can't lead the target or estimatet the range properly for the velocity of the ammo, you won't kill it.
Kinetic energy rounds, yes they did have them, were a better choice for long range. Here a square on hit would be critical for penetration. The non slopinhg armor of the German armor helped incoming rounds to penetrate IF they were of sufficient velocity and mass to penetrate that level of armor thickness. American guns were notoriously underpowered until they got the 90mm High velocity mounted in tanks. A Sherman needed a CLOSE range encounter and a side or rear facing hit to kill a later model German panzer. The Soviet T34's faced the same situation and both the US and Soviets used high speed "mix it up" tactics to kill tanks in larger formations. Soviet anti armor gunner teams used to use a "can opener" effect on German tanks. They would use multiple guns on a single tank fired as close together as possible to insure a kill. They frequently used as maky as 6 anti tank guns at a time when conditions allowed.
A final factor, I have already alluded to, is the location of impact. The side armor, top armor, bottom armor and rear armor are the weakest for all tanks. A hit there will penetrate much easier than the frontal heavy armor. The turret is also more heavily armored than the chassis. A hit in the tacks is likely to disable the tanks mobility making it MUCH easier to kill later on when you can target it at your liesure.
Biggest problem is more the optics and gun laying systems of the time. They didn't have an accurate range detection system that would allow for that kind of shot. Most gunners of the time had to estimate the hold over based on the target appearance in the sight and select the appropriate reticle in the scope for deflection especially on a moving target.
Given the variables I have listed, you can see the probability of a kill is more in the realm of "spray and pray" than a regular expectation of a hit. Once you hit a tank and do no major damage, it tends to piss it off. Payback can be a squeak!
