Colin Powell for President?

[Sikboy]

Originally posted by Dead Man Flying

I'd also caution against overstating the case for Powell as VP.  There is little evidence to suggest that the Vice Presidency is a good stepping stone to the presidencies in modern times.

I can see this fairly clearly, however (and I honestly don't know) what are the chances for the VP to NOT win the Nomination following an 8 year presidency?  You have to be in it to win it, and if Bush wins in 2004, Powell would do well to be on the ticket at the VP. Of course, if Bush looses in 2004, that might be a huge windfall for Powell, especially if he wasn't part of the ill fated ticket.

In the end though, you are probably dead on with regard to the fringes of the party having too much sway in primary politics. Moderates tend to get eaten alive in the primaries,  especially with the incumbent party.  

I guess I'll put a hold on my "Powell in 08" bumper stickers

-Sikboy

[midnight Target]

Does anyone think the Dems would have the nerve to bring up the race issue? How would they do it? Would it blow up in their face?

[LePaul]

Ugh....that name....McCain....I thought highly of him, enjoyed his book, then followed his stupid rantings for a while.  Gawd what a moron that guy turned out to be

I rate him up there with Jeffords for loyalty

[Masherbrum]

W will be VERY LUCKY to be re-elected

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by Sikboy
I can see this fairly clearly, however (and I honestly don't know) what are the chances for the VP to NOT win the Nomination following an 8 year presidency?

[/B]

This is a good point; the chances are pretty slim, but as I noted, VP selections tend to be pretty myopic.  It's unlikely that Bush would choose Powell solely because of Powell's presidential ambitions in 2008.  Powell would have to bring something to the table in 2004, and he would have to do so with the consent of the party leadership and party elites.

You have to be in it to win it, and if Bush wins in 2004, Powell would do well to be on the ticket at the VP. Of course, if Bush looses in 2004, that might be a huge windfall for Powell, especially if he wasn't part of the ill fated ticket.

[/B]

I think the latter scenario would be the best one for Powell at this point.

In the end though, you are probably dead on with regard to the fringes of the party having too much sway in primary politics. Moderates tend to get eaten alive in the primaries,  especially with the incumbent party.

[/B]

A scholar around here has done some research on strategic primary voting, and she found that most primary voters do not vote strategically.  This means that most primary voters are not forward-thinking in their vote choices -- they aren't casting a vote for the candidate they believe would stand the best chance in the general election, but rather voting for the candidate they prefer the most at the present.  So in a spatial sense, primary voters vote for the candidate closest to their policy positions, not the candidate who would be closest to the median voter in the general public.  That does not bode well for Powell in any Republican primary.

I guess I'll put a hold on my "Powell in 08" bumper stickers

You might wanna.  

-- Todd/Leviathn

[H. Godwineson]

Gore lost the election not because he distanced himself from Clinton.  He lost it because he waited too late to distance himself from Clinton.  Had he not done so, he might have pulled in more conservative voters in the South and West, the regions that contributed most heavily to his defeat.

By the way, there is no greater proof of how balkanized the voting public has become than the demographics of the last presidential election.  If the votes of African-Americans are left out of the equation (more than 90% voted for Gore) Bush would have won almost every state.  The last thing the country needs is more politicians that attempt to turn any "group" into pariahs.


Regards, Shuckins

[Animal]

I was having this same conversation with a friend on vacation here from the states.
We both reached the same conclusion. We are both liberals, she is a hardcore democrat, and we would both vote for Powell IN A HEART BEAT if he ran for president. In fact, I would probably live in a state and make residence just so I could vote for him.

Colin Powell had a hard road to get to where he is now, he achieved certain things that I doubt many around him would have in his position. Not only that, but he is one of the only politicians who seems he can speak honestly without dodging issues that would make him look unpopular. He doesnt seem to have that political bulshit artist attitude.

Plus, he is a great diplomat, but with a strong military background.

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by H. Godwineson
Gore lost the election not because he distanced himself from Clinton.  He lost it because he waited too late to distance himself from Clinton.  Had he not done so, he might have pulled in more conservative voters in the South and West, the regions that contributed most heavily to his defeat.

[/B]

There is no evidence to support this contention, and in fact all evidence points to the contrary.  Here is a story from June 16, 1999... the day that Gore officially announced his candidacy... that takes note of Gore's plans to distance himself from Clinton.  This was a campaign strategy from the getgo.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by Animal
We both reached the same conclusion. We are both liberals, she is a hardcore democrat, and we would both vote for Powell IN A HEART BEAT if he ran for president. In fact, I would probably live in a state and make residence just so I could vote for him.

I think Powell would kick bellybutton in the general election because he not only sports a stellar military and diplomatic record, but also holds domestic and foreign policy positions close to the median of the general public.

What he may not possess, however, would be policy positions consistent with a majority of the primary voters and/or leaders in the Republican party.  The biggest problem for Powell wouldn't be winning the general election, it would be getting to the general election in the first place.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[Thrawn]

What steller diplomatic record?

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by Thrawn
What steller diplomatic record?

Averting an international disaster with China a little while back comes to mind.  So does his insistence (along with others) in the early 1990s that we form a coalition against Iraq, a strategy that was ultimately successful.

Beyond that, you're right that he doesn't have much to show.  This in part appears to be the product of an administration at odds with Powell's world point of view... further evidence that Powell may be marginalized by administration insiders and party elites.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[AKDejaVu]

"But he's black?!"

How can it be brought up as a race issue by the Democrats?  You mean they've never used the term "Uncle Tom" before?

Don't know if I'd vote for him or not.  I've only seen him perform in puppet roles.  I'm very curious to see what he would say representing himself.  I'd really not like to fall into the "Let's vote for then non-offensive black man" right wing political correctness trap.

AKDejaVu

[Udie]

Originally posted by Masherbrum
I don't think he'll ever run for president.  His wife has depression (I do believe) and the press and Dem's would drag that out, and he doesn't want that criticized.

BUT, he'd make a great president.

K2

 I'd probably vote for him.  But wasn't Tipper Gore's depression used as a plus in the Gore campain?

[Animal]

Originally posted by Dead Man Flying

The biggest problem for Powell wouldn't be winning the general election, it would be getting to the general election in the first place.

-- Todd/Leviathn

This is, sadly, the truth.

[H. Godwineson]

Dead Man Flying,

Gore cast the deciding vote in the Senate which helped pass legislation that was offensive to many conservative voters in the South and West.

It's only fitting that many conservatives have become Republicans.  Gun-owners have long memories and they never forgot or forgave those votes.

This legislation was pushed by Clinton and Gore gave it his whole-hearted support.  These votes cost the Democrats in the Congressional elections of 1994 and it hurt Gore in 2000.  If you require evidence look at the election results map.  Bush carried out an almost clean sweep of the South, Southwest, West, and Heartland states, which are traditionally conservative strongholds.  Being associated with the Clinton campaigne-finance scandals didn't help him in those regions either.  Had Gore carried the election in just one more of those states the vote in Florida might not have mattered.  Instead, he lost nearly all of them, including his home state.

He and his campaigne staff may have adopted a policy of distancing themselves from Clinton in June of 2000, but it was STILL too late.

Regards, Shuckins