Colin Powell for President?

[senna]

Hed make a good pres. And you know it.

[Masherbrum]

I don't think he'll ever run for president.  His wife has depression (I do believe) and the press and Dem's would drag that out, and he doesn't want that criticized.

BUT, he'd make a great president.

K2

[capt. apathy]

probly the only republican I'd vote for.

[hawk220]

I read somewhere that his wife was fearful that if elected President, his life would be in serious danger from rednecks that would be afraid of a black President. Don't know if thats true or not.

I agree, he would be a great Pres tho.

[midnight Target]

I went and saw Powell speak a couple of years ago. He was very good at motivation, but the best part of his speach had nothing to do with oration.

Two soldiers had snuck up to the front of the crowd and were trying to get a picture. In mid speach Colin Powell stopped, looked down and asked "did you get it guys?" The crowd kind of chuckled, but Powell wasn't done.

He stepped away from the podium, and motions the 2 soldiers up to the stage. He posed for a picture with each, then shook hands with them and continued his speach. His first words were "I miss those guys".. meaning all soldiers.

He would have had my vote that night.

[Apache]

From a redneck from the south, I'd vote for him in a skinny minute.

[Sikboy]

2004 is not a good year for him to run. To run against an incumbent would create a very divissive primary and will cost major money on both sides. Powell would be uniquely suited to beat GW Bush for the republican nomination, but the money fight they would wage would leave whoever wins at the mercy of the Democratic candidate in the general election.  I think that If Powell chooses to make a serious run for the Presidency in 2004, then we will swear in a democrat in Jan. of 2005.

In 2008 however, it could be Powells year. But it will likely be the only year left for him. At 71 years old, I believe that he will be the oldest person elected to a first term. The age issue played against Dole in 96, I can see it biting Powell on the bellybutton if he were to run in 2012.

So, what does Powell do with his time between now and 2006, when the campaign really starts up? I think that reports of his leaving the Bush administration in 2004 were started along this line. Now, Powell has come out and denied these reports, but I still think the possibility exists that he will not be the secretary of State in the second bush administration. I imagine that if he wants to make a run in 2008, he will push for the VP. However, given the appearance that Powell and bush/chenney have serious foreign policy dissagreements, I'm not sure how receptive the party will be to putting him on the ticket. If they are going to have some forsight, the GOP needs to understand that they need to groom a Veep for the 2008 ticket. In that respect, Chenney is a poor choice in my opinion, and Powell a good choice. But hey, last time a Bush ran for a second term he was still carrying Dan Quale, who, regardless of whether you think he was treated unfairly by the press, wasn't considered by many to be "leader of the free world" material. I just mean to say that Qual wasn't picked because of his ability to carry the ticket in the 1996 election.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the next two years. I think we will know for sure about Powell's intentions by this time two years from now. I'd perfer him over any other nominated candidate from the past few elections.

Hey Levi, what do you think?

-Sikboy

[Lance]

I would vote for him.  Probably McCain too.

[fd ski]

I'd guess that Powell would get quite a bit of Democratic votes as well as Republican ones.
I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.
If Bush runs again, I'll vote for Marlyn Manson if he's the main opposition

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by Sikboy
2004 is not a good year for him to run. To run against an incumbent would create a very divissive primary and will cost major money on both sides. Powell would be uniquely suited to beat GW Bush for the republican nomination, but the money fight they would wage would leave whoever wins at the mercy of the Democratic candidate in the general election.  I think that If Powell chooses to make a serious run for the Presidency in 2004, then we will swear in a democrat in Jan. of 2005.

[/B]

There is no chance that Powell would fight Bush for the Republican nomination in 2004.  Not only would he lose, but he would achieve pariah status among party elites like McCain has managed to do.  McCain will never be president, and if Powell follows this path he never will be either.

In 2008 however, it could be Powells year. But it will likely be the only year left for him. At 71 years old, I believe that he will be the oldest person elected to a first term. The age issue played against Dole in 96, I can see it biting Powell on the bellybutton if he were to run in 2012.

[/B]

Age probably wasn't as huge a factor going against Dole as you'd think.  There are two main predictors of vote choice for presidents: party affiliation (plus the strength of that affiliation), and the state of the economy.  The latter explains the greatest amount of variance in presidential voting.  The simple fact is that in 1996, Dole ran against an incumbent president who served during a period of economic growth with a prognosis for continued economic strength well into the future.  I'd venture that this fact alone doomed him whether he was 35 or 105 years old.

And before people note that Gore lost the 2000 election despite a robust economy, it's important to note that he obtained a majority of the popular vote but lost due to procedural rules.  In other words, the 2000 election was kinda wacky by anybody's standard regardless of the outcome.

I'd also caution against overstating the case for Powell as VP.  There is little evidence to suggest that the Vice Presidency is a good stepping stone to the presidencies in modern times.  In fact, of all incumbent VPs running for president since Franklin Roosevelt took office, only George H.W. Bush succeeded.  If Powell truly wishes to chase the presidency, the history of modern presidents (by "modern," most political scientists mean FDR to the present) tells us he should run for governor somewhere.  Apparently, the executive experiences of a governorship coupled with running a gubenatorial campaign translate well into running for the American presidency.

Another strike against Powell for VP is the fact that VP choices tend to be myopic based on regional or party considerations.  What's particularly funny about that fact is that years of political science research have consistently shown that Vice Presidents bring practically nothing to a presidential campaign; voters rarely consider the VP when casting a vote, even those from the VP's home state.  The only modern example I can imagine to the contrary might be Johnson with Kennedy, but that was due more to his party connections in Texas than due to his popular appeal among voters in that state (unless you count all of the deceased voters who cast ballots for Kennedy in pro-Johnson counties in 1960).

Would Powell be a viable presidential candidate in 2008?  Maybe.  That really depends on a number of factors that I don't presently know.  First, he must appear as an attractive candidate to party leaders, most of whom tend toward the extreme elements of the party.  Second, he must appeal to the primary voting Republicans, most of whom also hold more extreme views than the party rank and file.  Finally, he must appeal to the party rank and file and the large contingent of moderate/non-affiliated or moderate/Democratic-leaning voters.  I don't know what his standing is with party elites or primary voters at this point (or what it will be in 2008), but I'm guessing he's not the most popular guy within the Bush administration or within a hawkish party leadership right now given his pragmatic stance on Iraq.  The fact that Powell has been so reluctant to run for president might signify his understanding that he would run afoul of one or more of the aforementioned keys to the presidency.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[AKIron]

He'd likely be a shoo-in. Most Republicans would vote for him and many Democrats. He's got my vote.

[Kieran]

Todd-

The only comment I think I disagree with is regarding the past election... the contest should never have been close enough for an electoral college to matter at all. After so many years of a healthy economy (rightfully or not attributed to the administration) Gore should have been a given. It was his election to lose, and he somehow found a way to snatch defeat from sure victory.

[Thrawn]

Powell strikes me as about a billion times more competant than Bush, and I bet he could totally kick Bush's ass...but then again, so did a cracker.

[Dead Man Flying]

Originally posted by Kieran
The only comment I think I disagree with is regarding the past election... the contest should never have been close enough for an electoral college to matter at all. After so many years of a healthy economy (rightfully or not attributed to the administration) Gore should have been a given. It was his election to lose, and he somehow found a way to snatch defeat from sure victory.

This is true, and in large extent I'd attribute Gore's failure to his unwise decision to distance himself from the Clinton administration.  He wrongly saw Clinton as a liability when, in fact, he should have embraced the Clinton legacy and its perceived accomplishments.  According to some polling data I've seen, this created a disconnect among many voters who attributed the state of the economy to Clinton but not to Gore.

However, even given such a poor campaign decision, it still came down to a matter of procedure.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[Wlfgng]

I just can't get past his name....

good thing that's a P not a B