Author Topic: CIA Says Iraq Deterred From Conducting Terrorist Attacks (Read 437 times)

Sandman · « **on:** October 10, 2002, 12:43:19 PM »

http://www.cato.org/cgi-bin/scripts/printtech.cgi/dailydispatch/index.html

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While the Bush administration pushed Congress yesterday for a broad vote to authorize the president to use force against Iraq, a new element was injected into the debate by a CIA assessment that Saddam Hussein, while now stopping short of an attack, could become "much less constrained" if faced with an American-led force, according to The New York Times.

The judgment was contained in an Oct. 7 letter signed by the deputy CIA director, John McLaughlin, on behalf of George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence. It was alluded to in a hearing of a congressional panel investigating the Sept. 11 attacks and then released last night, after the House opened its debate on Iraq.

The letter said "Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks" with conventional or chemical or biological weapons against the United States.

"Should Saddam conclude that a U.S.-led attack could no longer be deterred, he probably would become much less constrained in adopting terrorist action," it continued. It noted that Hussein could use either conventional terrorism or a weapon of mass destruction as "his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him."

Ivan Eland, Cato's director of defense policy studies, issued the following statement in regards to the CIA letter: "The CIA noted that Iraq now appears to be deterred from initiating terrorist attacks against the United States with conventional, biological or chemical weapons. But if the United States did invade Iraq and attempted to depose Hussein, the CIA concluded that he probably would be more likely to conduct such attacks. "

AKSWulfe · « **Reply #1 on:** October 10, 2002, 12:46:13 PM »

Well.... duh!
-SW

Animal · « **Reply #2 on:** October 10, 2002, 12:48:02 PM »

Wow, it takes so many people and institutions to point out the very obvious.

Sandman · « **Reply #3 on:** October 10, 2002, 12:49:47 PM »

Yeah... I know... such posts are wasted on SW and Animal... but I try.

10Bears · « **Reply #4 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:01:49 PM »

Hey I got an idea.. lets poke this rattle snake with a stick and see if it strikes

Animal · « **Reply #5 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:02:09 PM »

If SWulfe were Bush and I Saddam, there would be no problems left in the world.

AKSWulfe · « **Reply #6 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:07:27 PM »

True Animal.... but I would immediately force a non-aggression pact between our two countries, pay you a large lump sum to acquire Iraq as the 51st state, and supply your country with the most high tech weapons available.

Once your people were fully trained in the art of using these new high-tech weapons, I would declare the rest of the world our enemies and began systematically destroying each country's central government, acquire their military technology, and repeat until every country has been defeated...

I will then rename Earth to "United States of SeaWulfe and Animal" and resurrect the largest possible statue visible from space with me dressed up in a Napolean outfit standing proudly, with you on your knee-pads and your head burried in my crotch...

I will be the greatest leader the world has ever seen!
-SW

Ripsnort · « **Reply #7 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:07:31 PM »

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Originally posted by 10Bears
Hey I got an idea.. lets poke this rattle snake with a stick and see if it strikes

Nah, lets wait til it sneaks up on us when we're sleeping, then bites us (9/11)

AKDejaVu · « **Reply #8 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:17:22 PM »

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It noted that Hussein could use either conventional terrorism or a weapon of mass destruction as "his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him."

LOL! I thought that was the point.

The rest of the article gets the big old "duh" from me too. It reminds me of the multi-year multi-million-dollar study in California that showed clearcutting an entire hillside led to an increased chance of mud-slides.

AKDejaVu

Sabre · « **Reply #9 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:34:47 PM »

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Originally posted by 10Bears
Hey I got an idea.. lets poke this rattle snake with a stick and see if it strikes

Naw, instead let's chop it's head off with an ax before it has a chance. Really though, the whole snake analogy doesn't fit. Remember, a snake doesn't generally bother it's neighbors if you leave it alone. You can't say that about Hussien, can you? Snakes also don't hate, but just react instinctively. Leave them alone, and they're content. The Butcher of Bahgdad is not content to be left alone, a fact born out by the cold realities of history.

Sabre

Nash · « **Reply #10 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:38:56 PM »

I think the point here is that the CIA is tellin' folks that Hussein only plans to strike if strucken at. I know that's a "duh" thing... but I thought this upcoming war was about the fear of Hussein striking 1st...

So... do we plan to go to war with anyone with the gall to strike back if attacked? Or am I missing something here?

Modas · « **Reply #11 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:46:44 PM »

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Originally posted by AKSWulfe

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I will then rename Earth to "United States of SeaWulfe and Animal" and resurrect the largest possible statue visible from space with me dressed up in a Napolean outfit standing proudly, with you on your knee-pads and your head burried in my crotch...

I will be the greatest leader the world has ever seen!
-SW [/B]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOL

, you're killing me. Getting some strange looks from the co-workers.

hehehehehhehe

Ripsnort · « **Reply #12 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:47:46 PM »

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Originally posted by Nash
I think the point here is that the CIA is tellin' folks that Hussein only plans to strike if strucken at. I know that's a "duh" thing... but I thought this upcoming war was about the fear of Hussein striking 1st...

So... do we plan to go to war with anyone with the gall to strike back if attacked? Or am I missing something here?

Nash, we're not particularly worried about Iraq striking, its the puppets they supply weapons, money, WMD to that worry us (Al Queda for instance)

Its a case of us being either Pro-active or RE-active, the latter being 9/11.

Damned if we do, and damned if we don't, so, may as well be the pro-active.

miko2d · « **Reply #13 on:** October 10, 2002, 01:59:15 PM »

Animal: Wow, it takes so many people and institutions to point out the very obvious.

Obvious? How come Saddam Hussein was not deterred from trying to annex Kuwait once while obviously "faced with an American-led force"? US did kick his bellybutton but only after he invaded. I guess it seemed less obvious to him than it did to you.
US did kick Taliban's bellybutton after 9/11, which was obvious to everybody but Taliban.
US did kick Hitler's bellybutton and japanese bellybutton after those started wars, which was also obvious to everybody but them.
Attack on Fort Sumter by Confederates which guaranteed the downfall of the South? Obvious.
Trying to win the country back for King George with mighty french on colonies' side making it impossible? Obvious. To us, after the fact.
Dumed North Koreans invasion below 37th? Obvious. Not to them, I guess.

There may be good reason for not starting war with Iraq - having our deeply divided mutually hostile country full of cowards and idiots with no guts to back it up is my favorite one - but relying on something being "obvious" to Hussein is not one of them.

miko

Tac · « **Reply #14 on:** October 10, 2002, 02:12:19 PM »

The UN went to the Gulf in 1990's to kick Iraqui forces out of Kuwait. Saddam did not know if he allied forces would knock on his door in baghdad, but you betcha he wouldve "gone all out" if the did.

Now the US is gunning for Saddam himself. If the UN sanctions it he has nothing else to lose and WILL go "all out".

I think this summarizes it: