Author Topic: Time for ANTI-GUN people to put their money where their mouth is!  (Read 4131 times)

Offline Toad

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« Reply #210 on: November 07, 2002, 11:05:57 PM »
Nashwan,

Got a reply from the fellow that put up the website and the quote I pasted on crime recording methods.

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The correspondent who claimed the police compiled murder statistics is wrong from a number of points.  Homicide statistics are collated by the Home Office Research and Statistics Directorate and not the police.  They collate the statistics on the basis of convictions and only those cases where a conviction is obtained for one of three crimes: murder, manslaughter or infanticide.  The source of this information was originally the Home Office and a Japanese study that attempted to take nationally produced statistics and process them to a uniform standard - I have a reference to the originals somewhere but as you can appreciate my home has been turned upside down lately and it may take some time to find it again.  The Home Office RSD have their own website and you can download a lot of their reports in PDF format.  URL is somewhere in my links section.

To suggest that the police are responsible shows considerable ignorance of the subject.  The British Police are fragmented into a number of forces that act more or less independently.  To compile statistics in the manner suggested would allow even more bias to creep in; i.e. different forces would approach the collection and collation differently.  This is one of the reasons for the Home Office RSD; the independent collation and collection of crime statistics.

If you are to simply compare crime stats from one country to another it is fraught with difficulties.  In addition to the above example in the UK there is an offence of causing death through dangerous driving.  In other countries this would be classed as homicide but not in the UK.  Some countries (e.g. Switzerland) quote statistics as a comination of homicide and attempted homicide.

The effect that this can have is shown quite starkly if you compare England & Wales with Scotland.  Scotland has its own judicial system quite separate and distinct from the rest of the UK and as a result compiles its statistics differently.  If you compare the raw figures the Scottish homicide rate is approximately twice that of the UK, however, the only real difference is that the way in which the figures are put together.

In the US, the FBI collates crime statistics in the form of Uniform Crime Reports or UCR.  They are compiled in the manner suggested by your correspondent, hence my comments about comparing homicide between the UK and the US.

I hope you find this information useful.  I did try the form you suggested but it was down when I tried.

Regards,

Dave Brundle


Comments?
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Toad

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« Reply #211 on: November 07, 2002, 11:08:49 PM »
Senna,

Sorry, old chum.

As you know, gun suicides go into the gun homicide column and overall homicide as well.

So, you motorcycle chaps will just have to give up your 'cycles. Simply too dangerous. Even if only to yourself. And I'm sure we can dig up some stats showing motorcycles have killed innocent bystanders. And motorcycle deaths all count towards the vehicular total slaughter. We must get this vehicle death toll down; one life is too much to give simply for the freedom of wind in your hair and bugs in your teeth.

The nanny government has spoken; submit to nanny. There's a good lad.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2002, 11:17:54 PM by Toad »
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Toad

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« Reply #212 on: November 07, 2002, 11:14:45 PM »
My Dear Sir Beet1e,

Don't want you to think I've forgotten you. Just another busy day though. Nashwan and Senna are easy posts; yours will take a bit of time I suspect.

Making a "Beet1e Beverage Free Zone" around the computer desk today took a bit of time but was well worth it. Even my son reading over my shoulder didn't manage to reach the screen with nose-coffee while reading your post. So, so far so good.

Then there was quite a bit of clay target shooting today as the pheasant season opens Saturday. Still some discussion on which gun to take as the main "pheasant iron". The Field Grade Over/Under or the Semi-Auto? Which one truly fits best and points most naturally? The O/U won out, but the research was time consuming. It's much more a work of art and a thing of beauty, too... so a good choice.

Then we will be on the road tomorrow afternoon. I will try to squeeze in a reply but I can't truly promise anything. My apologies in advance if I don't get it done because there's some truly interesting spoor to follow in your post.

BTW, do real adults over there actually say "toodle-pip?"

Adios, my friend.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #213 on: November 08, 2002, 08:42:15 AM »
geeze beetle... ur getting yur butt kicked...  Try to stay with us..  Guns are multi purpose..  you can kill with em or use em for deterence... you can admire them for their mechanical and artistic beauty... you can enjoy shooting them for hunting, defense, target shooting or just plain plinkng at cans or whatever to relieve tension from a boring or stressful week.   You can simply handle them and admire them for their beauty and historical significance.

Do people abuse them?  well... yeah but they abouse power tools too.   They abuse automobiles and motorcycles and alcohol and laws don't stop the abuse.  

The deaths (and I don't count suicide) from firearms are a pitance compared to the deaths caused by other means.   A lot of the deaths by firearms are by people who are (gasp) trying to kill someone.   The firearms are incidental... They would commit the murder in any case.  

Accidents?   firearms accidents are a pittance.   certainly compared to say swimming (do we need to swim?).. or hiking (which kills the poor rescue workers too)  or rock climbing or any of a number of things.   Motorcylcles?   who needs em?   they cost more than ccars and are useless today... Ban em and save lives?

I would put to you that the real paranoids are the gun ban crowd.. they are being shielded by the deterance value of the gun but with very little danger to themselves.

It is unwise to ban or outlaw things that you have no interest in and sets a bad precedence.   I'm sure that you would not find a ban on hiking to "save lives" to be worthwhile... oh wait...yer british... you like any ban.  so long as the government says it's ok.
lazs

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #214 on: November 08, 2002, 10:19:52 AM »
Lazs - we've covered all this earlier in the thread. Do try to keep up!

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #215 on: November 08, 2002, 10:48:01 AM »
We certainly have covered all these things but you still don't get it.  U still claim that guns have only one purpose and that they are too dangerous to be allowed to exist except under prohibitively repressive restrictions.

I could understand you not getting it if you had spent your entire life on that crowded little island where even the streets are claustrophobic but...  you have seen our country.  You understand how long it would take police to respond to our country homes and how....  a person who enjoyed the historic, fun sp[ort of plinking or target shooting could do so (and do every day) simply by driving or in some cases, right out their back porch.

Your quote from  the "home office" is telling... why should they care?   Obviously they have no idea what they are talking about yet they still feel a duty to meddle in another countries bussines.   One can only conclude that they bothered to lie at all because they had an agenda.   I believe that agenda has to do with making sure that their subjects never enjoy the freedom that the U.S. has.

Perhaps our murder rate could be reduced if we had all the same laws and education and history and immigration and controls and economy as yours..  I don't know.   I do know that If that were the case then it is too high a price to pay.   Our gun laws work for our political and economic climate as do yours.   I have never gone onto a british site and told entered a debate on further restrictions of firearms in limey land.
lazs

Offline Toad

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« Reply #216 on: November 08, 2002, 01:01:57 PM »
Alas, Sir Beet1e, there's too much work today to sit down and do a lengthy reply. Plus, I'm off to the Glorious 9th today, the archaic festival that opens the upland bird season in Kansas. Last year over 110,000 folks particpated. Not bad for an ancient festival.

I do promise to reply in detail when I return. There's just so much of interest in your latest open-minded diatribes.

For instance, in your new thread you say:

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America has something in the order of 200 times the number of gun-related homicides that we have in the UK. Even allowing for our smaller population, it's still 50 times the British rate.



Perhaps so; I didn't check your numbers. Nonetheless, the last figures I recall for Homicide Rate per 100,000 (which is the statistic used for a true comparison) show the US ~6.8, England/Scotland ~1.5 and Scotland ~ 1.7.

So, while our guns deaths far exceed yours (no question) it is also obvious to the most casual observer that with an "end result"  ~5 times difference in the overall homicide rate, you English, Welsh and Scots have put out an impressive, incredible effort to close the gap using other weapons. Particularly those "sharp instruments", eh?

I know, with your concern over the loss of even ONE life that you're working hard to get those nasty things banned. After all, firearms account for less than a tenth your homicides while "sharp instruments" are nearly one-third. Surely you're focusing on that as the true threat? Ban those "sharp instruments post haste!

What was that last increase (2000?) in Scottish homicide? Something like 20%? And almost all with edged weapons? Good show, lads! Ban the Butter Knife!

Not to mention the differences in charting the stats. I'll have to check out this latest rumor:

Quote
in the UK there is an offence of causing death through dangerous driving. In other countries this would be classed as homicide but not in the UK
.

Perhaps you folks are doing your very best to make yourselves look better? Nah, politicians in the Home Office wouldn't do that, would they?

All for now... off to load the guns, dogs and ammo. Enjoy your new thread until I return.

Adios, My Friend.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2002, 01:05:51 PM by Toad »
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #217 on: November 08, 2002, 05:01:55 PM »
Quote
The correspondent who claimed the police compiled murder statistics is wrong from a number of points. Homicide statistics are collated by the Home Office Research and Statistics Directorate and not the police. They collate the statistics on the basis of convictions and only those cases where a conviction is obtained for one of three crimes: murder, manslaughter or infanticide.

I can't be bothered searching throught the previous posts for the exact wording, but it's pretty obvious the police record the events, the Home Office adds the figures up and publishes them.

His claim that statistics are based only on convictions flies in the face of everything the Home Office reports say.

However, I've found this report which makes it clear he's wrong:

http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm50/5001/5001-00.htm

"4.1 Homicide includes the offences of murder, manslaughter and infanticide. (Terms used in the chapter are explained in Appendix 2, paragraphs 16-20). At the time of writing, court proceedings were stillp ending in 44 per cent of the offences initially recorded as homicide in 1999/00. The outcome may result in some offences being reclassified when final data is available, for example where it is concluded that death was accidental. More complete figures from recent years are a better guide to the outcome of cases initially recorded as homicide."

"4.3 Table 4.2 shows how deaths initially recorded as homicides are eventually recorded. Of the 761 offences first recorded during 1999/00, 33 were no longer recorded as homicides by 11 September 2000 when recording closed down for the purpose of the analysis in this chapter. Court proceedings had resulted in findings of guilt in respect of 199 victims and proceedings were pending for a further 338. The suspects responsible for the deaths of 34 victims had committed suicide or died. No suspects had been identified in relation to 116 victims (including 18 cases where all suspects were acquitted)."

"4.4 Taking as a guide the more complete figures for the past six years (1993-1998/99), around 14 per cent of deaths initially recorded as homicides in 1999/00 may be reclassified. For the rest, about two thirds will result in conviction, and there will be no suspect for around 10 per cent. For 8 per cent, court proceedings will not be initiated, for example because the suspect died or committed suicide, or will be conclded without conviction or acquittal."

Appendix 2:

"18. Where an offence is initially recorded by the police as homicide, it remains so classified unless the police or the courts decide later that no offence of homicide took place."

Not that a particular person did or did not commit the act, but the act itself did not happen. ie self defence, accident etc.

Look at this chart:
http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm50/5001/5001-t4-2.htm

Note that the figures used to compare with the US are the "initially recorded" ones, not those reclassified when new info becomes available.

Note also the figures for 1993, chosen bbecause it's the last year for which no court proceedings are pending.

675 homicides were initially recorded.

109 are currently no longer recorded as homicide. (ever seen the British figure given as 566 homicides in 1994? Neither have I)

566 still regarded as homicide.

According to Brundle (and Newsmax), that must mean 566 convictions, right?

In fact, there were 461 convictions for murder, manslaughter and infanticide, and 1 person was found not guilty by reason of insanity.

4 people died awaiting trial, 30 killed themselves, 9 suspects had their cases thrown out of court, 23 suspects were aquitted, and in the other 38 cases they haven't got any suspects, or not enough evidence to bring charges.

The 2001 figures can be found at http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm53/5312/crimestats.pdf

They show 846 homicides in the UK in 2000/2001

Before you point to the huge increase, it was largely down to the deaths of 58 Chinese immigrants who suffocated in the back of a lorry as they were being smuggled through customs at Dover. The US figures for 2001 exclude the murders of approx 3000 people on September 11th.

By Oct 11th, 28 of those Homicides had been reclassified and removed from the figures, reducing the total to 818. 131 cases had resulted in guilty verdicts, cases were pending for another 498.

Now if Brundle was right, the official figures for England and Wales would be 131 homicides for 2000/2001. Ever seen it claimed England and Wales had 131 homicides in 2000/2001?

In other words, he's wrong on 2 counts.

1. The final homicide figures are not based on convictions, or even court proceedings, but on initial reccordings and reclassification as futher evidence comes to light.

2. The final figures are rarely if ever used for comparisons anyway, because they take too long to come out. For a more recent year, only about 5% of cases have been reclassified. If the figures were really compiled as he claims, 199 homicides would have been recorded in England and Wales in 1999/2000, because by the end of 2000, that's how many cases had resulted in convictions.

Quote
To suggest that the police are responsible shows considerable ignorance of the subject. The British Police are fragmented into a number of forces that act more or less independently. To compile statistics in the manner suggested would allow even more bias to creep in; i.e. different forces would approach the collection and collation differently. This is one of the reasons for the Home Office RSD; the independent collation and collection of crime statistics.

I thought we'd already established that that used to happen, with lots of crimes going unrecorded. That's why there are so many guidelines for exactly what circumstances crimes have to be recorded, and how they should be classified.

Certainly crime figures are "collated" and "collected" centrally, but the recording is done by the individual police forces.

Mind you, I'm only basing this on the reports from the Home Office, HM Inspector of Constabulary etc, whereas he has a Japanese report ;)

Quote
In addition to the above example in the UK there is an offence of causing death through dangerous driving. In other countries this would be classed as homicide but not in the UK.

I thought at first he was simply wrong, now it seems he's been deliberately misleading.

The FBI figures for the US specifically state "non-negligent homicide". ie, deaths caused by negligence are not included.  Looking at the FBI breakdown of homicides, cars are not listed.

Homicide by negligence would pretty much cover causing death by dangerous driving, so it's excluded from the US figures too.

Just to illustrate the point, about 10% of all fatal accidents in  the UK are recorded as death by dangerous driving.

The US has around 30,000 people killed a year in traffic accidents. If the same 10% figure is used, that would be 3000 people listed as killed by cars. In fact, the FBI show just over 1,200 people killed by "other weapons" and unkown weapons.

There's one point he has missed out: UK figures include "involuntary manslaughter", which is similar (not the same) as "negligent manslaghter", which the US figures exclude.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2002, 05:05:20 PM by Nashwan »

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #218 on: November 08, 2002, 06:40:13 PM »
Lazs -
Quote
Your quote from the "home office" is telling... why should they care? Obviously they have no idea what they are talking about yet they still feel a duty to meddle in another countries bussines. One can only conclude that they bothered to lie at all because they had an agenda.
LOL Lazs!  I know you refuse to believe the AH scoreboard when it doesn't suit you, but now what's this:  The Home Office guys are liars?!!

Mr. Toad - Wow!  The Glorious Ninth...  We have a day like that - 12th August, which we know as the Glorious Twelfth. Kansas, you say?  That's one of the nine states to which I have never been.

Looks like Nashwan has taken care of a few of your points, so you're going to have your work cut out when you get back.  I'm sort of entertaining this weekend - again, so take care, have fun, hopefully you'll take a few pics that you can post here.

All the best -
Sir Beet1e.



PS - Toodle-Pip!  ;)

Offline Airhead

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« Reply #219 on: November 08, 2002, 06:59:30 PM »
beat1e, you won't be saying "toodle pip" when one of your killer Engligh squirrels, knowing you are unarmed, grabs ahold of your testicles. Then you will be begging for the right to protect yourself..."tootle pip" indeed....

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #220 on: November 08, 2002, 07:08:53 PM »
LOL airhead!  Our squirrels are very timid. I can never get near one. However, I was once in Sacramento,CA - not far from where Lazs lives, where NOTHING is allowed to be timid - and was feeding nuts to the squirrels on the lawns opposite City Hall. Those guys were so tame!  One of them climbed up my body, hung from my shirt and looked me in the eye. I held up a peanut which it took, then ran down my body and over to the nearest tree!

I seem to have got a lot of people going with this Toodle-Pip thing - LOL!  :D

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #221 on: November 09, 2002, 10:21:27 AM »
You actually tried to hand feed one of our squirrles???  I can't wait till you visit.... I will ask you to pick up one of my cats.  You sound like you will be a lot of fun to be around.   Ever pet one of our badgers?  

I say that your home office has no idea what goes on im my country and to even bother getting into it (with quotes such as you make) is obviously the work of an entity with an agenda.   Here in the U.S we take it as faith that our government and press allways have an agenda..  To think otherwise seems..... naive.

airhead wanted to be more like the british but finding out that "toodle pip" did not save his testicle he now goes armed in the park in order to hopefully save the remaining one.   The squirlls know he is armed and give him a wide berth.
lazs

Offline Sandman

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« Reply #222 on: November 10, 2002, 02:45:19 AM »
sand

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #223 on: November 10, 2002, 04:28:19 AM »
Hi Lazs!

Yes, those squirrels opposite Sacramento City Hall. Tamest things I ever knew. Here in Britain we used to have red squirrels, but they got killed off by the grey ones. I don't know if any red squirrels still exist. I couldn't get over how that one squirrel hung from my shirt, and when he could not reach the nut in my hand, he looked me right in the eye as if to say "well, are you going to give it to me or not?"

The only badger I've ever seen is a dead badger. Plenty live around here, but I never see them till they've been hit by a car and killed. Where I live is largely surrounded by farms - semi-rural.
Quote
I say that your home office has no idea what goes on im my country and to even bother getting into it (with quotes such as you make) is obviously the work of an entity with an agenda. Here in the U.S we take it as faith that our government and press allways have an agenda.. To think otherwise seems..... naive.
Erm... I do believe our respective govts. talk to eachother? T Blair has a red phone hotline to Dubya. If you'd said the same thing of newspapers I would agree with you, but earlier you said you don't watch TV news or read the papers much. And I don't blame you because I think you can get better news analysis in the US by surfing the web. Having lived in both countries, I can tell you that newspapers often don't understand the living culture of another country, and make a right buggery-suet of the reporting. BUT... that works both ways, and reports about Britain in US "newspapers" were often total bollocks. The USA Today is the only paper you guys have that's worth paying for.

I leave you with a picture of a marmott!

Offline Dummy

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« Reply #224 on: August 18, 2006, 08:22:25 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by beet1e
New York City is your most populous city and was once America's murder capital, if not murder capital of the world. Please advise me if there is any other city in the world outside America which has or had a murder rate higher than that of New York in the 1970s/1980s, excluding any that are involved in military conflict.

LOL the mind boggles at some of the things people come out with. I know this is an ANCIENT thread but came across it while browsing on Google!

*New York, USA = 2,245 murders (1990 - Pop. 7.3million)*

Sao Paulo, Brazil = 11,924 murders (1999 - Pop. 17.3million)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil = 6,810 murders (1989 - Pop. 9.6million)
Medellin, Colombia = 6,804 murders (1992 - Pop. 2.2million)
Johannesburg, South Africa = 5,677 murders (1994 - Pop. 6.0million)
Bogota, Colombia = 4,352 murders (1993 - Pop. 5.3million)
Durban, South Africa = 2,969 murders (1994 - Pop. 2.7million)
Cali, Colombia = 2,763 murders (1993 - Pop. 1.7million)
Recife, Brazil = 2,752  murders (2001 - Pop. 3.3million)
Cape Town, South Africa = 2,541 murders (2002 - Pop. 3.0million)

I sure hope this guy has changed some of his views since. The amount of people who believe New York or America was the murder capital of the world beggars belief. Actually it may have been (or certain parts) in the late 70's/early 80's, but certainly not the late 80's/early 90's in the midst of the crack cocaine explosion.

Drug-related violence and addiction tore apart the big Colombian cities and Rio during this period, despite recieving a small fraction of the coverage that US cities garner (in fact Colombian cities are almost completely ignored in this respect. The media preferring to concentrate on the drug cartel and terrorist violence, rather than the street-level urban homicides which make up by far the biggest proportion of murders in the country).