I've heard on the radio today that WHO "upgraded" the SARS mortality rate from 5% to 7%.
There are no data on how many people that are exposed the infection actually develop the desease - even for plague it was not 100%.
Estimating conservatively that only 50% of the population in a dense metropolis with wast public transtport are exposed to the virus and 20% of those develop the desease and 7% of those die, that makes 0.7% of the population dies or 7 out of every 1000.
For 8 million NYC that would make 50-60 thousand dead.
I cannot imagine how that desease could possibly not enter and spread in NYC. The next couple of months should be interesting to watch and live through around here.
miko
