Author Topic: Saddam  (Read 3065 times)

Offline crowMAW

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« Reply #90 on: April 01, 2003, 08:00:42 PM »
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Originally posted by BGBMAW
ok Crow wins...

Glad you finally admit it!  :)

Hey, you can go on thinking that the US should invade Britain to overthrow the un-elected monarchy all you want.

What do all you Brits think about BigB wanting the US to invade your country.  BigB must hate Brits.  He must have wanted Hitler to win WWII to get rid of Brits.  BiGB is a NAZI!!

Which country do you want to invade after that BigB?

Oh, I know...BigB wants to kill the Pope and have Catholism outlawed...Catholics didn't get to vote for the Pope!  BiGB hates Catholics!!!  BiGB wants to start Catholic concentration camps too!

WTG BiGB.  ;)

Offline crowMAW

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« Reply #91 on: April 01, 2003, 08:08:27 PM »
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Originally posted by Martlet
While fundementally it sounds easy to just rise up and overthrow a sadistic dictatorship, there are some fundemental barriers.  While I'm not saying (obviously) that it is impossible, I am saying it is extremely difficult.

Never said it would be easy.  But if the majority of the Iraqi people are not willing to risk their lives to be free, why should anyone else risk their lives to give them freedom.

It can be done...study Romania...study Iran (I haven't even started in on the history of Iran's revolution).

As far as being able to create revolutionary cells...it can be done.  Iraq is dangerous for dissidents but they obviously do exist...look at Salam Pax's blog.  They know how to get around the Party.

Offline BGBMAW

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« Reply #92 on: April 01, 2003, 08:35:17 PM »
huh?
 Crow...

ahh nevermind..theres enuff here to oppose your "ideas" of Iraqs people to win for them selves..

Personally..Like you said..They can All die ......Doesnt effect me...

BUT what does is hes a freakshow...who has WMDs..and im not waiting to see who he gives them too....

Yes we need to Disarm him..The UN said yes to this 12 years ago...
HOW CAN ANYONE ARGUE THIS!!!!!


FUQ ALL OF YOU WHO SAY DIFFERENT  YOU ARE MORONS AND ARE GOING TO BE VOTING FOR DASCHLE....so be it...


"Wheres a Bulldozer when you need 1"


Love
BiGB

Offline crowMAW

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« Reply #93 on: April 01, 2003, 08:42:38 PM »
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Originally posted by Toad
"like Saddam's"; Not necessarily quantitatively.

More conjecture?  Where's the beef?  Give me some qualitative comparisons between the two military forces.

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From your undoubtedly accurate to the last vowel depiction, the Securitate being stripped of their weapons doesn't seem to compare with the reports of how the Republican Guard fared against the Kurds and the Shiites. After initial reverses, the state forces came back extremely successfully and harshly. [/B]

The Securitate who were guarding a group of forced "pro-Ceausescu" demonstrators were stripped of their weapons.  We are talking probably less than 100 guards for over 1000 demonstrators.

The rest of the Securitate, Security Troops and Worker's Guards kept their weapons and used them against the Romainian people.  They did fight back.

The difference is that in Iraq the revolt never spread through out the country.  The people of Baghdad did not revolt with the people of Basra.

In Romania, the protest rippled through the entire country.  The people of Bucharest revolted with the people of Timisoara.  The majority of people in Romania violently called for a change because they had had enough.

The majority of Iraqis evidently never reached that level of hate for Saddam that the Romanians did for Ceausescu.
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We both agree that  xxxxxxxxxx nation's boys should be dying for xxxxxxxxx nation's independence. [/B]

Glad we agree on something.  I don't see that happening even now with US military aid on the ground.  I don't see the people of Baghdad carrying out acts of sabotage while the Republican Guard is busy with the US forces.  I don't see Iraqi expatriates here in the US getting on planes to go back to Iraq to organize a resistance front. I do see Iraqi expatriates going home to fight against the US though.
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However, we disagree on whether or not a populace without heavy weapons can successfully revolt against a government that accepts slaughter and genocide as an acceptable means of control, equipped with heavy weapons and soldiers more than willing to use them against their countrymen. Such a populace would have to have external military aid. IMO. [/B]

Well, I've given you one example where your opinion did not play out as you would have expected.  I could go into the Iranian Revolution of 1979, but I doubt you are willing to consider that your opinion has been contradicted by historical events regardless of how many examples I am able to give.
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How'd the Kurds succeed in the North with a no-fly zone? They failed miserably without one in '91 but have held an Indpendent Kurdistan with the addition of "just" a no-fly zone... external military aid. [/B]

The Kurds are a tiny minority...that is why they fail without external assistance.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2003, 08:47:10 PM by crowMAW »

Offline Toad

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« Reply #94 on: April 01, 2003, 08:55:24 PM »
The qualitative comparison would be in their relative success.  The Iraqi troops had success; the Romanians did not. You attribute this to the difference in the % of the population in revolt. I attribute this to the willingness of the Iraqi troops to kill everyone and anyone that opposed them. I think the reported deaths respectively bear that out.

So, disagree.

I'm willing to wait on the clear neutralization of Saddam's governmental and military apparatus to see how the people really feel.

Some reports that they're beginning to help with information right now.

It may be that they've been absolutely cowed by the regime and I'm sure us not helping in '91 has made them extremely gunshy about getting out in front again.

So, willing to wait. But it'd be a d mn sight better if they were particpating, I agree.

My opinion is basically that the side with heavy weaponry (tanks, planes & artillery) and having soldiers willing to use that against their own citizens will win against a citizenry using primarily small arms. I think historically, if those conditions are met, my opinion is correct.

Ah, but the point is the "tiny minority" of Kurds WIN with minimal external military assistance. You take Saddam's heavy weapons out of it and .... Independent Kurdistan. To me, that highlights what I just said in the previous paragraph.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2003, 09:04:11 PM by Toad »
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline crowMAW

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« Reply #95 on: April 02, 2003, 10:17:05 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
The qualitative comparison would be in their relative success.  

There can be no qualitative comparison based on success as the Iraqi military has not faced a majority of Iraqis in revolt as the Romanian military did in 1989.

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Ah, but the point is the "tiny minority" of Kurds WIN with minimal external military assistance. You take Saddam's heavy weapons out of it and .... Independent Kurdistan. To me, that highlights what I just said in the previous paragraph. [/B]

So lets get back to the issue at hand:  I say that there is not a majority of Iraqis who want Saddam out of power, if there were then they would be able to force him out.  Your example here would indicate that our invasion of Iraq is unnecessary.  All that would need to be done to have Saddam removed is to impose a no-fly zone over all of Iraq, which would allow the majority of Iraqis to oust him (if that majority existed).

The Kurds want independence and are willing to fight for it.  It appears that the rest of Iraq (except for another small majority in the south) is willing to live under Saddam's tyranny.  Plus it appears that even the minority in the south is not too interested in independence as they have enjoyed the same no-fly zone assistance that the Kurds have had yet are not nearly as autonomous as the Kurds.

Offline Toad

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« Reply #96 on: April 02, 2003, 04:25:08 PM »
Clearly we're not going to agree.

You view the determing factor of the success of a revolt to be the % of the populace willing to revolt.

I view the determing factor of the success of a revolt to be the willingness of the side with the most troops/heavy weapons to use them without mercy until the revolt is quelled.

The revolts you use, Romania, Iran and Russian we're not characterized by a "loyal" military that was willing to kill an unlimited number of civilians.

OTOH, both the North and South revolts in Iraq were characterized by just such a military.

The revolts you showcase succeeded. The Iraqi ones failed.

You view this as proof of your "majority" position. I view this as proof of my "unlimited slaughter" position.

We are not going to agree.


And as for the second part, we have two empirical examples to look at. The revolts in the North and the South.

In the North, after initially losing to Saddam's troops, the Kurds emerged later with an independent Kurdistan with the addition of an externally enforced no-fly zone.

In the South, where according to reports the losing initial revolt was more bloody and fierce than that of the North, the Shiites have not risen since, despite the addition of an externally enforced no-fly zone.

Seems to suggest that there are other factors at work to me. I'll submit that the Southerners may be/are totally cowed down after the slaughter visited upon them in the '91 revolt and the thousands (then thousands?) of executions in its wake.

I think we'll have a better understanding after Saddam's regime is clearly powerless and we see how the populace reacts.

None the less, I do agree that there should be primarily Iraqi boys fighting for Iraqi freedom.

I just don't think they'd ever succeed without external help as long as the State has the total loyalty of the troops with the heavy weapons.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline MOSQ

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live from Baghdad
« Reply #97 on: April 10, 2003, 03:33:37 PM »
Live from Baghdad:

crowMaw eats crow !

Offline Martlet

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« Reply #98 on: April 10, 2003, 06:29:23 PM »
You want that boiled, or fried?

Offline BGBMAW

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« Reply #99 on: April 10, 2003, 06:55:36 PM »
lol

Offline MOSQ

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« Reply #100 on: April 10, 2003, 10:19:14 PM »
Originally posted by Hristo

Iraqi people fight for freedom now.
Maybe bodybags will teach US a lesson.


Hristo, where's your laser like intelligence now ?
Perhaps your having dinner with crowMaw?

Offline crowMAW

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Re: live from Baghdad
« Reply #101 on: April 11, 2003, 10:36:07 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by MOSQ
Live from Baghdad:

crowMaw eats crow !


Huh??  Which post am I eating crow about?
« Last Edit: April 11, 2003, 10:38:51 AM by crowMAW »

Offline MOSQ

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« Reply #102 on: April 11, 2003, 01:42:54 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by crowMAW



 I say that there is not a majority of Iraqis who want Saddam out of power, if there were then they would be able to force him out.......  Plus it appears that even the minority in the south is not too interested in independence ....


Hmm,  I guess all those Iraqis going crazy with jubilation in every city are a tiny minority.

Again: Live From Baghdad: crowMaw eats crow !

Offline crowMAW

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« Reply #103 on: April 11, 2003, 04:07:11 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by MOSQ
Hmm,  I guess all those Iraqis going crazy with jubilation in every city are a tiny minority.

Again: Live From Baghdad: crowMaw eats crow !

Yup, I said that...but lets put the paragraph in that you so conveniently left out:

Quote
Originally posted by crowMAW
The Kurds want independence and are willing to fight for it.  It appears that the rest of Iraq (except for another small majority in the south) is willing to live under Saddam's tyranny.  Plus it appears that even the minority in the south is not too interested in independence as they have enjoyed the same no-fly zone assistance that the Kurds have had yet are not nearly as autonomous as the Kurds.

I think it is pretty clear the intent from this part of the post and from others where I say that the Iraqis "choose" to live under Saddam by their inaction.  If there had been enough Iraqis who wanted Saddam out of power, ie who were willing to die to be free rather than live under his tyranny, he would have been gone.