Author Topic: 6 Day War  (Read 803 times)

Offline Hortlund

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6 Day War
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2003, 04:31:12 PM »
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Originally posted by Nashwan
Currently the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza is about 50/50 Jewish and Arab (excluding other groups). The Arab birth rate is much higher than the Jewish birth rate, and within 10 years Jews will be a minority group.


Well, its a good thing the arabs in the west bank and gaza strip are not Israeli citizens then dont you agree? I mean if they cant vote, who cares how many they are.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2003, 04:47:04 PM »
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I mean if they cant vote, who cares how many they are.

Israelis. There is a lot of discussion in the Israeli press about it. They get very worked up about words like apartheid being thrown their way.

In 20 years or so, when you have 6 million Jews ruling 10 million Palestinians, it gets more difficult to claim Israel as a democracy, when neither place of birth, or place of residence, determines citizenship, but only religion.

It also gets more and more difficult to police them. The IDF has to use reservists now, what happens when their population has doubled, and Israel's remains the same? Every citizen doing 3 months reserve duty? The economy is on it's knees as it is.

Not only the Palestinian birth rate is outstripping Israel's, but Israeli Arabs are outbreeding them as well. According to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, they currently make up 15% of the population, and have a birth rate double that of Israelis.

Offline Hortlund

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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2003, 05:32:03 PM »
Well then, if only the Pals and the Israeli arabs quit blowing stuff up, they could wait until they are a majority and vote the Israelis out of the west bank.

Because the Israelis are winning the war of attrition if you want to look at it that way.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2003, 05:47:06 PM »
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Well then, if only the Pals and the Israeli arabs quit blowing stuff up, they could wait until they are a majority and vote the Israelis out of the west bank.

No, Israel will take steps before then.

Candidates for the Knesset can be barred for questioning the Jewish nature of the state, and the Israeli public puts defending the Jewish nature of the state as more important than democracy in opinion polls.

There has been talk in recent years of a seperate parliament for Israeli Arabs, and I expect that to get more support as their numbers increase, if Israel has not become a more integrated society before then, and no deal has been concluded with the Palestinians.

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Because the Israelis are winning the war of attrition if you want to look at it that way.

There is no war of attrition. The Israelis kill 1 - 2000 Palestinians a year for the last couple of years. The Palestinian growth rate is nearly 4% per annum, or about 150,000 people per year.

In fact, the closures and curfews actually push the birth rate up, as does increasing poverty.

The war is about public opinion. That's all terrorism can change.

The Palestinians seek to make the occupation too expensive for the Israelis, an have largely succeeded. The Israelis seek to make terrorism too expensive for the Palestinians, and have largely succeeded.

In the end of course nothing will change without outside pressure, because the Israelis equate possesion of the West Bank with security, and the Palestinians believe terrorism is the only way they can get Israel  to end the occupation.

Thankfully the "road map" is about to be presented, and may offer a way out if the Americans put genuine pressure behind it.

Offline Hortlund

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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2003, 05:54:33 PM »
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Originally posted by Nashwan
Thankfully the "road map" is about to be presented, and may offer a way out if the Americans put genuine pressure behind it.


I agree. But I dont think the US will put any real pressure behind it. Israel is too valuable to the US right now.

Offline bozon

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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2003, 06:12:08 PM »
Nashwan,
It is true that Israel started the 6 days war. While there was doubt if and when Egypt Syria and Jordan would start it, the first strike came more as an act of desperation rather then based on hard intel.

The moral was dangerously low, the common joke was to remind each other that "the last man should remember to turn off the lights".
In 1967 the 19 years old country was not sure of it's strength. Israel won the independence war by a margin, but at an atrocious cost. In 1957 it was with the (little) aid of france and britain and just against Egypt. The holocaust was still a fresh memory.
The 1948 borders were almost impossible to defend against attacks from all directions and there was a real danger of the country being cut into two halfs at the narrow waist in the middle (less then 20 km. check the scale http://www.fsmitha.com/h2/map23zsrl.html)

The decision was not to wait and see, but gain some greatly needed suprise advantage.

Still, any good decision must be stunk by the generals. It was recently published that the goverment specificly ordered NOT to reach the suez canal. But the generals got over exited (guess who was one of those that pressed hard to capture it - hint: a prime minister salamander).

The 6 days war was too much of a victory. It's like some molested kid suddenly realises that he has grown and can beat up anyone he likes.
the sin of pride - and still paying dearly for it.

Bozon
Mosquito VI - twice the spitfire, four times the ENY.

Click!>> "So, you want to fly the wooden wonder" - <<click!
the almost incomplete and not entirely inaccurate guide to the AH Mosquito.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGOWswdzGQs

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2003, 06:24:09 PM »
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But I dont think the US will put any real pressure behind it. Israel is too valuable to the US right now.

I doubt it will be backed up with enough serious pressure from America, but there are a lot of other factors at work.

Israel is in desperate economic trouble, and if they are resisting American pressure, it's harder for them to get loans from the US taxpayer. The upcoming US elections make it hard for Bush to oppose the Jewish lobby, but denying Israel large aid handouts in the runup to an elections isn't exactly a vote loser.

Also, if Abu Mazen can get his act together and enforce a temporary crackdown, then the Israeli public knows that peace can't last forever without a deal.

So there'll be pressure from the US, pressure from the Israeli public, most of whom approve of abandoning the West Bank and Gaza, and even Sharon sounds like he's starting to wobble. See today's interview he gave to Ha'aretz:

http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=283307&contrassID=1&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

It's created a storm amongst his right wing colleagues in government.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2003, 06:30:48 PM »
Bozon, I am not suggesting Israel was wholly wrong, or even shares most of the blame. But Nuke's post suggesting Israel shares none of the blame, and that's just not true.

Both sides have been too eager to go to war, and not just in self defence. They also have their eyes on what they could gain, and Israel is no different in that.

I know Israeli intelligence thought Nasser wasn't going to attack, and I have seen it claimed Eshkol thought they were, but it wasn't simply a war of self defence. Israel had done it's share of provocation in the run up to the war, and they were anxious to expand their territory in the Sinai and Golan.