Is anyone else nervous...

[ra]

...about the economy?

I don't just mean the bear market and the off-again on-again recession.  I mean the whole foreseeable future of the economy.

Anyone who had their eyes open in the late 90's knew that the stock market bubble would burst, and that we were due for a down turn in the business cycle.  But three years into the dip I don't see any reason for things to get better.

The new factor IMHO is the sudden increase in the globalisation of the job market.  Throughout the 70's and 80's blue collar jobs flowed out of the US (and Europe and Japan, I assume) for poorer countries where labor is cheap.  The US economy was able to thrive because there were white collar jobs being created at a rapid rate, so overall we did well.

Recently, however, white collar jobs have started flowing away too, and there are no jobs being created to take their place.  Whether it's help desks or architecture or engineering or IT or accounting or medical research, the jobs are heading overseas.  The end of the cold war and improvements in telecommunications have made it easier than ever for employers to shop around the whole world for workers.    It seems to me that this will cause  downward pressure on white collar wages, as well as increased white collar unemployment.   Without a new job sector to absorb the displaced white collar workers, the ripple effect of all these out-of-work people will be enormous.  

It could take many years for the world labor market to adjust, during which time western wages will have to drop.  The business news pages are already talking about deflation, meaning that just about everything is becoming less valuable.  Why buy a house if you think it's value will decline?  Or a car?  Or hire an employee at a fixed salary?   Right now the sector with the safest jobs seems to be government, where there is usually job security, and it's nearly impossible for salaries to go down.

Should I take a sedative, or am I seeing things right?

ra

[OIO]

yeah, many companies doing that. here they have sent most of their costumer service and tech support to india. Which is really funny because for a company that claims to be #1 in service, those folks in india, who I acknowledge try their damn best, can barely speak english.

Now our phones get flooded with people that are frustrated out of their minds after hours of talking with Mr. Accentgarblegarble and getting nothing out of it.

[Curval]

Originally posted by OIO
those folks in india, who I acknowledge try their damn best, can barely speak english.

I had to drop off some files to an auditor yesterday.  He told me the story of the frustration they had dealing with an Indian subsidiary company that they were auditing.

Example:

Auditor:  Well, that portion of commission expense is actually an advisory fee, we will reclassify it to that acccount.

Accountant in India:  No sir, I not be putting it there.

Auditor:  Yes, I know where you put it, I'm saying we need to put it in advisory fees.

Accountant in India:  Oh goodness no Sir, I be putting it to Commission expense.

Auditor:  I KNOW WHERE YOU PUT IT.  I AM SAYING IT SHOULD NOT BE THERE, IT SHOULD BE IN ADVISORY EXPENSE.



Language barriers are funny, but frustrating.  Even telling the story the auditor started getting red faced and pissed off.

[udet]

good good-maybe I will get a job easier then

[Ack-Ack]

Originally posted by OIO
yeah, many companies doing that. here they have sent most of their costumer service and tech support to india. Which is really funny because for a company that claims to be #1 in service, those folks in india, who I acknowledge try their damn best, can barely speak english.

Now our phones get flooded with people that are frustrated out of their minds after hours of talking with Mr. Accentgarblegarble and getting nothing out of it.

During the last months of AW, EA got rid of us AWARs and hired some company in India to do what was once our jobs.  Not faulting these guys in India, they have to make a buck themselves but they were just awful.  One of them, in responce to a players question about CTDs, responded that the player should make sure his mouse drivers were updated as they were the cause of the CTDs.  After the player posted screen shots of the conversation and we all had a real good laugh on the message boards, EA cut ties to that company.


Ack-Ack

[OIO]

sometimes it gets out of control. 9:01 AM ...

*ring*

houseowner, somewhere in Florida:  'ullo? (yawn)
caller: "garblegarble ofa u a bakazion een garblegarblegarble

-homeowner realizes its a telemarketer from across the pacific-
*click*

[miko2d]

Ra, read this: Ludwig von Mises institute - Daily Articles

 Start with The Cone of Production  

 You will be likely be worried much more than now but at least you will know why. You may also want to pick up Jude Wannisky's book "How the world works" (a readable textbook on political economy).

  The wages have to drop/rise to reflect our productivity and amount of productive capital - of all kinds - per person. We are sorely losing on both counts and I would not be surprised if our wages settle at chinese levels or below.

 You make a couple of basic fallacies in your statements - ilike saying that drop in prices will cause people to stop buying. It's the other way around - people not buying products produced through misallocation of capital (due to government's fiscal/monetary tinkering) that causes prices to fall. And it's a good thing - the very mechanism how free market readjusts. Interfering with that process by wage/price controls and overexpansion will only prolong the pain.

 Also, the globalisation of white collar market has always been there. Production flows around in various forms to the best place to produce. It is also controlled by currency flows which is not in our case - as a producer of world currency. We would not be able to buy products or white-collar labor abroad indefinitely if the dollar was floating rather than artficially supported.


Should I take a sedative, or am I seeing things right?

 If you do not have children, take sedative. We are all dead in the long term, as the main culprit of the current situation - lord J. Mainard Keynes said.
 If you do or plan to, buy yourself a rifle and some gold, stock some food/water/fuel as an insurance, study history and pray the crisis resolves in less destructive way.

 miko

[Eagler]

the next bubble to burst ---- the Credit Card bubble

all these half brains still racking up debt, paying the min, grabbing the next card in the mail and maxin it out all in the name of materialism. "happiness" through shopping ....

ra, I think it is going to get worst before it gets better