Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Toad on June 04, 2008, 08:52:14 AM
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You want to get things done? Appeal to the entrepreneurial spirit.
We've had literally decades to come up with fuel efficient cars from Detroit and around the world. Even the mighty Japanese auto industry stalls out around 40-50 mpg on internal combustion vehicles. You'd think with the various and continuing energy problems world wide, the free market would have been all over high mpg like a duck on a June bug. Nope, didn't really happen.
Government? Fugeddabowditt! Government regulation, suggestion, Corporate Average Fuel Economy rules... bah. The US industry stalls out in the mid 30 mpg range for the most part.
Nope, you want things done, you appeal to man's sense of a challenge and most of all his greed. How many of you are following the Automotive X Prize?
The goal of the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE is to inspire a new generation of viable, super fuel-efficient vehicles that offer more consumer choices. Ten million dollars in prizes will be awarded to the teams that win a stage race for clean, production-capable vehicles that exceed 100 MPGe.
Can't be done? Check out the early top 10 leaders in the race according to Popular Mechanics:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4261425.html?series=19
Good things will come of this. The down the road end result of this is a few major manufacturers putting variations of the top few designs into production. Will we suddenly get 100+ mpg vehicles on the market? Nope. But maybe 5 years down the road 40 mpg will be old hat and 70 mpg will be available to the average Joe Commuter.
Will these cars replace everything? No, we'll still need pickup trucks and station wagons but for a lot of people they will be a "right" choice, particularly in heavily urban environments.
I wonder if the oil producing Arab states contributed to the $10 million prize? :lol
Bottom line though is that if you want things DONE, forget about the government completely. Don't expect old, hidebound industrial management to even try to think outside the box; they can't see past their own golden parachute. Appeal to the visionaries and reward them for their efforts.
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Nice words. Means diddly squat in the real world though.
Progressive Insurance is putting up the prize money. Why am I cynical? Unless you already have the money to do something like this, you will not be able to even think about starting it up.
You will not find investors who are willing to pony up the money unless they have a garantee on the return and a substantial say in its deployment.
If you manage to find anyone to fund it, they will want to own it and leave you in the lurch.
If you do not have the money to pay for a patent attorney, then do not bother trying to do something good for the world.
Sorry, but this is just more stroking for the sake of stroking each other. Another, "feel good" attempt at distracting the world from its problems. I have a very good reason to be cynical about this.
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Did you read the PS blurbs on the cars? Private investors are already lining up for many of those cars mentioned. It wasn't only Progressive that put up prize money either.
For example:
So far Tesla has raised $105 million from investors
Gotta have money to even try? Nope, check out the West Philly Hybrid; a high school class has that one up and running. They're getting all the help they need from folks like Boeing and Drexel University
I'd also hazard a guess that any designs that finish in the top 5 will likely get buyout offers from various existing automobile companies. To win, you have to have a vehicle that can be produced and will work in a "real world" environment.
While it isn't terribly hard to build a vehicle that will propel itself 100 miles on only a gallon of gas, the X Prize rules call for a car that can carry four adults and sip gas while traversing all kinds of terrain and negotiating real-world traffic. And the car builder must demonstrate that the vehicle can be profitably offered for sale in volumes of 10,000 units in a form that meets federal crash safety and emissions requirements. If this weren't enough, the competition really is a race, because the money goes to the fastest car that can do all of these things.
"Achieving 100 mpg? Any bright engineer can go do that," declares Chris Theodore, vice chairman of ASC Inc., who advised the X Prize committee. "But with the rules of cost and safety and desirability and functionality, it becomes much more challenging. I'm not sure the public appreciates how difficult it is."
http://www.xprize.org/news/automotive-x-prize-seeks-100-mpg-car
Good things will come from this competition. The least of which would be waking up the engineering departments of the major auto builders.
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But maybe 5 years down the road 40 mpg will be old hat and 70 mpg will be available to the average Joe Commuter.
Already is in Europe. Volkswagen Polo Bluemotion, 57.6 mpg urban, 88.3 mpg extra urban, 74.3 mpg combined cycle.
The problem for manufacturers is that they have to make the cars people want to buy. Even in the UK, where fuel is taxed to over $8 per US gallon, the best selling cars are a class larger than the Polo.
I think the Automotive X Prize is a waste of time, frankly. Any team that came up with real advances would find the car manufacturers offering them far more than $10 million, and this is a field that already receives massive investment in research.
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I think the business plan calls for the cars to be profitable at 10,000 units. Tesla has 1700 orders w/deposit so far.
I can see no negatives. It heightens awareness, provides options, may develop new technologies and they are not talking 75 mpg combined, they're talking 100+. The Philly highschool kids are looking at 130 mpg.
As I said, if the result is a wide range of choices from major makers like the Bluemotion, fine.
If it takes high priced gas, 10 million donated dollars and some inventive engineering to get the US to seriously address our nationwide poor mpg, I'm ok with it.
Think if 100 mpg becomes the common rating world wide. Can't hurt, can it?
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Oh, I can't see any downside, the people who put up the prize money get publicity, as do the teams entering, and some niche cars might result. But I doubt they will have anything to teach the major manufacturers.
If you look at the best known of those teams, Tesla, they have a car already entering production. But is there anything the major car manufacturers can learn from it? It uses an electric motor from a major manufacturer, off the shelf batteries of the type used in laptops, in a car built by Lotus, who have been doing engineering jobs for major car manufacturers for decades. There's nothing new, just a niche design for a niche market.
Major manufacturers will bring out alternative powered vehicles when the market is ready for them. That's when fuel is far more expensive, and/or when the basic technology has advanced a lot more.
I just don't see these teams advancing the basic technology. Are any of them producing a radically new battery? New types of fuel cells? New ways of producing hydrogen? It seems to me they are all taking existing technologies and packaging them a bit differently.
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Did you read the PS blurbs on the cars? Private investors are already lining up for many of those cars mentioned. It wasn't only Progressive that put up prize money either.
For example:
Gotta have money to even try? Nope, check out the West Philly Hybrid; a high school class has that one up and running. They're getting all the help they need from folks like Boeing and Drexel University
I'd also hazard a guess that any designs that finish in the top 5 will likely get buyout offers from various existing automobile companies. To win, you have to have a vehicle that can be produced and will work in a "real world" environment.
http://www.xprize.org/news/automotive-x-prize-seeks-100-mpg-car
Good things will come from this competition. The least of which would be waking up the engineering departments of the major auto builders.
Yes, I have read all the blurbs about all the entries. I have a design that would potentially win, but it will never happen. Why? Because I am a poor working slob who cannot afford to build it first, then ask for the money later. I cannot afford to walk away from my job, with no income for the year, or so it would have taken to build it. And I cannot ask the other nine or ten folks needed to finish it to do the same.
High schools get funding.
I have been all over this for a lot longer than most of those designs have been around. I am too cynical and tired of having my hopes tossed into the garbage. They can shove their worthless prize where the sun does not shine. It's all a glamour show.
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Maybe what they will teach the automotive giants is how to produce/package existing 100+ mpg technology into a popular, buildable, product that will sell well. ;)
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I have a design that would potentially win, but it will never happen.
Well, if you are so sure, patent it. If you don't have the money for a patent, draw up a partnership and get some partners that do have enough.
Worst case, if you can't do anything with your idea because of your circumstances, give it away to someone that can do something with it. At least you'll be famous. ;)
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I do not have the money for a patent attorney and I do not know anyone who has that kind of money. Us poor folks are not allowed to move in those circles.
I am too jaded to care anymore. Fame was never part of the equation for me. Money was.
I have often wondered how many geniuses have had to just ignore what they could do, simply due to lack or funding. Yet, there are plenty of rich idiots around.
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This car is already excepting orders for local folks. For short trips under 100 miles it gets around 300 miles to the gallon. On long trips it lowers to about 120 mpg. Made in Carlsbad CA.
Just hand the xprize over. :)
http://www.aptera.com/details.php
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Aptera_Typ-1_Wallpaper.jpg/800px-Aptera_Typ-1_Wallpaper.jpg)
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I do not have the money for a patent attorney and I do not know anyone who has that kind of money. Us poor folks are not allowed to move in those circles.
I am too jaded to care anymore. Fame was never part of the equation for me. Money was.
So you're the one with THE ANSWER but you just don't care? Gotcha.
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This car is already excepting orders for local folks. For short trips under 100 miles it gets around 300 miles to the gallon. On long trips it lowers to about 120 mpg. Made in Carlsbad CA.
Just hand the xprize over. :)
http://www.aptera.com/details.php
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Aptera_Typ-1_Wallpaper.jpg/800px-Aptera_Typ-1_Wallpaper.jpg)
That will not win. It is not considered a passenger car. They consider it a motorcycle.
So you're the one with THE ANSWER but you just don't care? Gotcha.
I used to care. No point in caring anymore. All it will get you is a ton of grief and disappointments.
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Just hand the xprize over. :)
First, they have to make it a 4 seater for adults. Then they have to prove it works in the real world, supply a workable business plan and prove it can be produced in a normal fashion.
So no handover just yet.
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That will not win. It is not considered a passenger car. They consider it a motorcycle.
Wrong it is considered a passanger car.
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The X-Prize folks have it listed in the motorcycle category.
It does not meet the minimum requirements for the X-Prize automobile category, as they require 4 useable seats in the car.
It could make an entry into the experimental category, but those are assured not to win the prize.
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Appealing to the entrepreneurial and sense of greed are the perfect motivators.
This is the principal that Big Oil works upon.
Enter young, genius, college student with an idea and working prototype of a revolutionary new way to improve fuel efficiency by 75%.
He /she is 21, with lots of student loans and credit card debt.
Along comes Big Oil with a couple of million to buy the rights to this great invention.
Our broke, college student holds debt in one hand, and a check with 6+ figures in the other. At 22 (+ or -) years old the decision does not take long to make. Money now or hang on to the idea, raise capitol (more debt), market it, find a manufacturer, etc?
I know it's a very generic scenario, but that's pretty much how it plays out, for the most part.
Sad but true.
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Apparently that scenario didn't play out for Bones.
Would be tough to get it to play out for the X-prize winner too, wouldn't it? I mean the world will know who won and there will be demand for the car. If Exxon buys it and it disappears.... riots? :)
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The X-Prize folks have it listed in the motorcycle category.
It does not meet the minimum requirements for the X-Prize automobile category, as they require 4 useable seats in the car.
It could make an entry into the experimental category, but those are assured not to win the prize.
Or they could make a 4 seater?
FAQ:
"Are there plans for a 4-seat model of any kind in the foreseeable future at even lower MPG ratings?"
"Once Aptera has finalized the initial production version of the typ-1 we will continue to revolutionize the transportation industry in other areas."
"Since the Aptera is classified as a motorcycle, do you have to wear a helmet or get an endorsement on my license?"
"You are not required to wear a helmet to drive the Aptera, nor is an endorsement on your drivers license required. Anything in the state of CA with three wheels does not require a motorcycle license and enclosed vehicles with three wheels do not require the use of a helmet. All this and you also get to drive in the HOV lanes!"
I was wrong,
I wonder how far they will go with this "enclosed motorcycle" catagory. 4 person? Motorcycle's that have passenger car crash testing? Motorcycle with a role cage?
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Apparently that scenario didn't play out for Bones.
Would be tough to get it to play out for the X-prize winner too, wouldn't it? I mean the world will know who won and there will be demand for the car. If Exxon buys it and it disappears.... riots? :)
Some would squawk, yes. But, for the most part, the public at large will piss and moan about the price of fuel while at the same time continuing to pay the prices as they rise.
Ideas like these may begin to take hold on the public eventually. The whole "green" concept is now becoming more and more in vogue. An idea that at one time was for those "damn, tree-hugging hippies", has now finally worked its way into mainstream society.
With the explosion of "freedom" of information in the past decade, it IS going to become harder to just snap-up patents and ideas at-will, but as long as the bottom line is threatened, they will always try.
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The future is here already - if you live in the right part of the world...
http://www.whatcar.com/car-review-costs.aspx?RT=622&ED=44339&U=0 (http://www.whatcar.com/car-review-costs.aspx?RT=622&ED=44339&U=0)
Most Americans will still scoff at such cars, but the reality is that within a generation, they are going to be the norm over here. Gas prices in the US are only three or four years behind where they are in Europe.
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This car is already excepting orders for local folks. For short trips under 100 miles it gets around 300 miles to the gallon. On long trips it lowers to about 120 mpg. Made in Carlsbad CA.
Just hand the xprize over. :)
http://www.aptera.com/details.php
Can we put chains on those tires?
(http://www.newgarden.org/images/Snow-Plow.jpg)
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I see no downside... In fact..
I am not even against the government giving away 1 billion of our money as a prize to build a car that gets 100 mpg and meets some other specs including a reasonable price and performance goal.
I am not against the government giving a billion dollar prize for the first solar panel that is say 75% efficient and cost less.
lazs
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There is a reason that Fiat 1.3TD is not available here. The same reason the Mini diesel is not available here.
The engines and injection systems need to be re-worked to use the diesel we have available. They would lose about 15% of their power and more in fuel efficiency.
The government is driven by big oil. They have no vested interest, other than to lip service the people of our country, to see this go forward. If they had an interest, the American automobile engine would have changed a long, long time ago. Big oil has no desire to see that happen, so it will not happen.
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Ok kids...here's how it works...just like Health Insurance.....we will produce fuel efficient cars and the price of
gas will stay the same or go higher.....I don't know how many times I've heard if everyone stops smoking our insurance rates will go down.
Many people have quit smoking and are eating right...has our health Insurance gone down ???Noooooo
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Many people have quit smoking and are eating right...has our health Insurance gone down ???Noooooo
Smoking is down. I haven't seen any adult obesity stats for the last couple years, I know child obesity figures say it has plateaued. But smoking and fatties does equal 100% of all insurance claims.
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Automotive X Prize
"VEHICLE CLASSES AND DESIGN REQUIREMENTS
In order to encourage a wide range of realistic, production-capable vehicles and products, the AXP purse will be awarded in two vehicle classes: Mainstream and Alternative.
The Mainstream Class has minimum design requirements based on the characteristics and combined city and highway driving profile typical of today's popular, mixed-use vehicles.
The Alternative Class is intended to encourage wider-ranging innovations in vehicle design, as well as alternative but realistic visions of how future vehicles will be used for personal and family transportation.
Accordingly, the Alternative Class has fewer design constraints.
Vehicles that are designed to achieve AXP goals by modifying an existing popular vehicle may be entered in either class, provided that all AXP requirements are met.
The AXP will offer two vehicle classes: Mainstream and Alternative. The classes have the same requirements for fuel economy and emissions, but different design constraints.
Mainstream class – 4+ passenger vehicles with 4+ wheels that meet conventional expectations for size and capability
Alternative class – An outlet for innovative ideas that push forward today's conventions about automotive transportation (2+ passengers, no requirement on number of wheels)
MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR ALL VEHICLES
All vehicles or products must be designed to achieve AXP energy and emissions requirements, i.e.:
Fuel economy: at least 100 MPGe
Total (wells-to-wheels) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions expressed as equivalent grams of C02 per mile: no more than 200 g/mi
Criteria emissions: no worse than Tier II, bin 5
GHG emissions from vehicle production: no worse than typical vehicles in production today
All vehicles will be required to have a minimum set of features. Those features include but may not be limited to:
• Enclosed cabin (or convertible), with windshield and windows
• Windshield wipers and washers
• Seat belts and restraints
• Rear and side view mirrors
• Feedback mechanisms to provide essential data to the driver (speed, fuel remaining, range, etc.)
• Lamps, lighting, horn, indicators, brake lights and reflective devices consistent with safety regulations
Furthermore, the following features are required to accommodate AXP requirements for vehicle testing and monitoring:
Sufficient ground clearance, cooling and attachment points to facilitate dynamometer testing
Marmon flange for connection to emissions sampling equipment
A standard, AXP-supplied on-board data acquisition and telemetry package that captures and transmits at a minimum: fuel-flow (for liquid and gaseous fuels), amp-hours (for electrical fuels), GPS data (for location and speed
MAINSTREAM CLASS REQUIREMENTS
Capacity: 4 or more passengers (95th percentile adult male) and 10 cubic feet of useful cargo space
Wheels: 4 or more wheels
Performance: 0-60 mph acceleration in less than 12 seconds, minimum top speed 100 mph, minimum range 200 miles, 60 - 0 MPH braking in no more than 170 feet, lateral acceleration (300-ft-dia skidpad) 0.70 g, 600 ft slalom (Motor Trend) speed 55 MPH, gradeability 55 MPH on a 7.5% grade, noise levels within drive-by standards (74 decibels max)
Features: Heater, air-conditioner, audio system, real-time eco-feedback display5
ALTERNATIVE CLASS REQUIREMENTS
Seating Capacity: 2 or more passengers seated side-by-side (95th percentile adult male) and 5 cubic feet of useful cargo space
Wheels: No minimum requirement
Performance: 0-60 mph acceleration in less than 12 seconds, minimum top speed 80 mph, minimum range 100 miles, 60 - 0 MPH braking in no more than 170 feet, lateral acceleration (300-ft-dia skidpad) 0.70 g, 600 ft slalom (Motor Trend) speed 55 MPH, gradeability 45 MPH on a 7.5% grade, noise levels within drive-by standards (74 decibels max)
Features: Real-time eco-feedback display
The AXP reserves the right to modify and expand these requirements while preserving their basic intent.
Tandem and single seating. Issue: Given that this is the Alternative class, it should permit tandem seating and also single-seat vehicles. Probable Change. Our original concern was that tandem- and single-seat vehicles would have too much of an advantage, but we agree that they should be permitted. Thus, the probable change is to relax constraint on number of seats to one seat and not to constrain the seating arrangement. All vehicles must have automatic, dynamic and static stability (i.e., so that balance while moving or stopped/parked does not depend on the driver). However, we would have two Divisions of the Alternative class – side-by-side seating vs. everything else (tandem, single). There would be a winner in each Division with the Alternative class purse split between the Divisions in proportion to the number of vehicles in each Division (still under consideration)."
:aok
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I called it the experimental class, when in fact is the alternative class.
That class has zero chance of winning the X-Prize, in my opinion. They are looking for mainstream efforts.
I am not saying the Aptera is not a neat idea. I just think it can be easily beaten in this competition.
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I called it the experimental class, when in fact is the alternative class.
That class has zero chance of winning the X-Prize, in my opinion. They are looking for mainstream efforts.
I am not saying the Aptera is not a neat idea. I just think it can be easily beaten in this competition.
you know what they say about opinion's :lol
Please show me your entry that meets ALL the requirements as of right now...TODAY!
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Can we put chains on those tires?
(http://www.newgarden.org/images/Snow-Plow.jpg)
:lol
I dunno maybe snow tires :) They did mention in the FAQ they would be testing in the snow in the future.
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Can we put chains on those tires?
(http://www.newgarden.org/images/Snow-Plow.jpg)
It's probably so light that it wouldn't need much teeth to tread snow and ice.. Weathering might be a itch, though..
I am not against the government giving a billion dollar prize for the first solar panel that is say 75% efficient and cost less.
lazs
Apparently, solar is going to be efficient enough to be truly competitive in a few years.
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you know what they say about opinion's :lol
Please show me your entry that meets ALL the requirements as of right now...TODAY!
Yes, I have an opinion, as do you. They both carry equal weight. The only possible difference is, I do have a design that would have a chance of winning. Yes, it meets all the criteria for the mainstream. Do you?
That said, I consider 3 or 4 of the entries good solid candidates for winning based on the overall goal of the competition. One of the entries looks intersting but they did not divulge enough information to assess their potential.
No point in sharing my design. I will build it. I will build it for me. It will take me about 5 years to get it done as I am just a working slob like most people. Screw the rest of the world and their superficial solutions to problems. I told you I was cynical about this. And if you choose to disbelieve I have a solution, then that is also your opinion and I could care less.
My goal is to eventually get my house off the grid entirely. It will be through my own designs.
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You'll be sorry when he is all finished, MuHaHaHa.......
(http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff107/tymekeepyr/deathstar3.jpg)
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That design is horribly inefficient, but it makes decent movie stock.
I forgot to mention. I vould field my car today in the X-Prize, if I had the money. It is all about money. It has nothing to do with the what is actually the best design. The best design has not been entered yet and will never be entered as the poor schmuck who has the idea/design cannot afford to build it in the timeframe needed and no one has the balls to fund it unless he builds it first. Screw 'em all!
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our diesel is just too damn dirty with sulfur to run those neato euro turbo diesels. This is changing because we are cleaning up our fuel but... look at the price of the new "low sulfur" diesel now.
I think cheap, efficient solar panels will change everything. Once we are all pretty much off the grid with cheap or free electricity it opens up the possibility of neato little electric hot rods for most of our travel.
lazs
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The problem I see with solar panels is we need batteries to store the electrical power, and generally you need a lot of them. When I worked at Batteries Plus for my college job, we would get a price increase and corporate or our vendor would give us a 'sad' explanation why they have to pass on the price increase. Anyways, IIRC, the cost of lead on the open market went up about 400% from 2002-2003 to 2007. The cost of metal is going up everywhere. This is why I'm not a fan of Hybrids because if we started replacing a majority of cars on the road with hybrids, there's a lot more expensive metals we're putting into cars.
And I'm very curious what the used car market is going to be in 7-8 years (the expected life of a hybrids battery banks). Are dealers/owners going to fork over the $2k-3k for new batteries? And are these batteries going to still cost $2k-3k in 7-8 years? What's the cost of a hybrid going to be in their production is increased to take a majority of the market?
IMHO, hybrids are a very small bandaid for a very large wound. People criticized reduced funding a few years ago by the administration into hybrids in favor of fuel cells. But if you're going to stick money into a 'solution' why waste it on a bandaid? For the short term, I favor fuel effecient small cars.
Just before I left that job, we had stored junk batteries in back by our dumpster in a locked gate. About a month after we started doing that someone broke into the gate and took a pallet of batteries (3 layers, around 70+ car batteries) most likely to sell at a scrap yard. We just had a police sting in the area at our two local scrap metal yards for stolen metal goods.
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No, you don't really need battery backup if you are on the grid.. the grid is what is the biggest problem for electric companies.. like trying to force an elephant through a straw.
The way solar works is that during the day.. the meters run backwards and the electric companies not only don't need to supply the grid but can use the power for industry. At night.. demand is low in any case and you buy back some of the power you "sold" to them. You end up with a small or no bill for the year.
Out in the boonies and not hooked up to the grid.. you would want backup.. either batteries or a generator or wind or all three.
Even at this point.. guys with solar are seeing $50 a month power bills instead of their former $300
lazs
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No, you don't really need battery backup if you are on the grid.. the grid is what is the biggest problem for electric companies.. like trying to force an elephant through a straw.
The way solar works is that during the day.. the meters run backwards and the electric companies not only don't need to supply the grid but can use the power for industry. At night.. demand is low in any case and you buy back some of the power you "sold" to them. You end up with a small or no bill for the year.
Out in the boonies and not hooked up to the grid.. you would want backup.. either batteries or a generator or wind or all three.
Thanks for the 411. I had assumed wrong since everyone I dealt with were in the boonies.
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35 to 50 years from now, there'll be an expose movie about how we've all been taken to the cleaners when it comes to MPG's etc.
Sorta like "Tucker."
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I think cheap, efficient solar panels will change everything. Once we are all pretty much off the grid with cheap or free electricity it opens up the possibility of neato little electric hot rods for most of our travel.
I hope so. All that torque available straight away would equal fun without super high hp figures.
You're right about the sulphur in diesel. Even with low sulphur blends, most EU diesels don't meet CA emissions standards. There's various techniques being introduced to counter that (VW's blutech etc) that inject some rude sounding liquid into the exhaust stream to clean it up and it seems to work well. That said, it just adds complexity and hence price. With Diesel at $5 a gallon round here, you'd have to do a well of a lot of miles to recover the additional outlay on purchase price.
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Big auto actually has more clout than big oil, from what I've seen. The diesel reg that Laz mentioned, for example, was a pollution solution that big auto pawned off on the oil industry. There were solutions that could have come more from the engineering/engine side or the fuel side and the fuel side was pushed through.
Big auto builds the cars that America wants and that make the most money in the process. Usually those two are one and the same. SUVs and 200+ HP sedans, etc. American doesn't have a history of wanting small matchbox cars. If automakers could find an efficient technology that would let a $40K SUV get 50mpg then they would be all over it.
Charon
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hap.. do you know anything about the Tucker besides the movie?
It would not have sold. It would not have been reliable. It had some inovative features that no one wanted at the time. It would have cost a bunch and been expensive to repair.
I have heard that the new gee wizzz turbo diesels are going to be arriving this year. This will be bad news for the hybrids.
lazs
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I have heard that the new gee wizzz turbo diesels are going to be arriving this year. This will be bad news for the hybrids.
lazs
Diesels might save the truck and large SUV market - particularly if you do a lot of heavy towing where a diesels will murder a gas engine for mpg. For the light truck and car market, the economics are less clear cut.
Let's say you pay $4000 premium to buy a diesel Honda Accord over the equivalent I4 gas model (heavier engine construction required by higher compression / expensive exhaust cleaning systems). Let's also say that diesel retains its 20% cost premium over regular gas - say $4.80 versus $4.00 a gallon. Now let's assume the gas car does on overall 26 mpg to the diesels 40mpg. That gives a cost per mile (for fuel) of 15.4 cents per mile for the gas car and 12 cents per mile for the diesel.
To recover that $4000 initial outlay, you're going to have to cover 117647 miles. Bear in mind diesels also tend to have higher maintenance costs. There's also the question of where the additional diesel comes from if demand goes up. Its not like there's huge amounts of spare gas refining capacity that could be converted, and the process is apparently pretty expensive.
Of course, there are other factors to consider not least of which will be that the diesel will probably be a far nicer car to drive than the gas model with freight train like torque for overtaking and relaxed low-rev cruising. I drove the previous generation European Accord with a diesel engine (Acura TSX in the US market) and it was a really nice car. Buy it as an alternative to a V6 and it makes a bit more sense.
All in all though, gas engine technology is moving ahead as well and I think for the time being, gas is going to rule the US market.
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Good post Wooley.
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I know what I'm doing about gas prices... I'm buying a used Ninja 250.
Signed up for the Basic Riders Course at the local community college in early August. May try to get in earlier, but I'll be travelling for work a bit this summer. Figure 2k for the bike, 1k for gear. Won't save any money in the first year, but I imagine once gas is sitting at 7 or 8 bucks a gallon next year I'll be saving even when you consider the added cost in insurance and maintenance.
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ZENN elecric car, already on the market in US and EU for about 12-14k$: built in Montreal , but still ilegal here in Canada,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M88k6Ipp3c (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M88k6Ipp3c)
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Hybrids don't ever make up for their cost either but... people don't like to pay at the pump. the little turbo diesels will sell because not only do they get better mileage but... they are tougher and last longer (maybe not as big a deal as it used to be).. and they don't have the complex and semi annual smog checks here.
They also are not gutless wussy cars like the hybrids.
I don't care.. for a few more bucks on a long trip I take my Lincoln.. 23 mpg but it is very comfortable. I owe nothing on the car.
I forsee solar panel development and other things that will make electric power very cheap. I see myself with a little electric hot rod and then my big car... a motorcycle and maybe a 10 mpg hot rod or two. I see things working out fine.
I think the more gas costs the more private industry will get on the stick and make things happen...
The people who like doom and gloom and like to sit on their butt and wail for big government to save em make me sick.
lazs