The overshoot is one of my main ways to get kills. I like the idea of having the con come to me and put himself in a bad position. He's at least somewhat predictable, which is a bad thing for him. If he's attacking me I know right where he wants to be, and can use that info to help set him up. That's the greed factor at work. He want's to kill me.
As he realizes he's going to miss his shot, he will often pull hard in a last ditch effort to score a hit. That helps slow him down for me. As he realizes he's going to end up in front of me, he often tries to slow down quickly. That won't stop him from overshooting, but will make him nice and slow after he goes by me. If he's a little too fast for me to hit, I spray a bit so he see's tracers and dodges, or feels committed and tries to break turn back into me. That's the fear factor at work. He doesn't want to get kilt.
Greed and fear. Those two emotions will get you in trouble.
Another thing to keep in mind is the mindset of all the people giving advice so far. They are all viewing the guy behind them as a kill, not a killer. Even though they may be out front in a "vulnerable" position, they are "setting up" the bad guy, and allowing / making him react to THEIR manuevers. The guy out front is "leading" the fight, while the guy on their six is "reacting" to them. The guy in a fight who is "reacting" is a step behind the leader. That's bad when the leader has guns too. You want to lead or dictate the fight, not let the other guy do it. If you feel like the "defender" in a fight, you are a step behind (or two or three).
It all starts with SA (Situational Awareness). Look ALL around you, ALL the time. Even in the middle of a fight I'm glancing around. If you "find" someone on your six, you've already screwed up. You're a step behind already. If you ever find yourself a little peeved because you didn't get a check six, you lack SA. If you get "Check Six'ed" BEFORE you already knew there was an "issue" developing near you, you lack SA. If you don't know what the friendlies are flying near you, and how their fight will likely develop, you are lacking in SA. What direction is "safety"?
I get check six'ed alot. I appreciate it alot. NOT because they are telling me to check my six, but because it means the friendlies around me are paying attention (displaying SA). The only time I get check six'ed before I'm well aware of what's going on is when I'm reading a book (which I do alot while playing). Those are the times I'm likely to die.
Timing varies on the overshoot manuever by several factors. Closure rate is what I go by. You don't want to wait too long, or you get killed when you initiate the manuever. Starting too soon is just as bad. It "shows your hand" and makes YOU predictable. I generally start my set-up when the con is 1000-1.5K behind for an overshoot. I alter how tight I turn to "fine tune" the timing.
Another way to tell if your being "led" as you sneak up on someones six, is to see where they are leading you. Is the fight running mostly north/south? Is the guy who seems to not see you dragging you out east or west all by himself? Is he seperating you from help? Is he in an F4U? Did he "****" one wing down a tad as you closed to 1.2 or 2k, as if he's watching you over his shoulder? Is he letting you catch him, even though you are in a slower plane? If your "warning bells" aren't ringing, you are in trouble.
You can learn from getting shot down- but only if you can figure out how/why it happened.
MtnMan