Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
What about extremist groups in the Philippines? I expect Abu Sayyaf just learned a valuable lesson in what methods work to force the government's compliance. I would not be the least bit surprised if Philippinos at home now face increased prospects of kidnappings and highly-publicized, Internet-friendly beheadings.
Pulling out of Iraq early was a myopic decision. Not only did it increase the danger to other countries in Iraq, but it likely increased the danger to Philippinos at home as well.
-- Todd/Leviathn
Abu Sayyaf have been kidnapping people for years - it's how they make their money - so I don't think they've learnt any valuable lesson at all: the only lesson involved with Iraq is teaching your grandmother to suck eggs.
And as far as I know, Abu Sayyaf have had their best (perhaps only) government-related results kidnapping Americans & other foreigners. Based on the past track record, kidnapped Filipinos can expect to be beheaded or just forgotten if their family doesn't pay up. So I think your estimate of the danger to Filipinos being increased is probably an exaggeration.
And the whole thing is a bit apples and oranges - Abu Sayyaf run their operations in the Philippines, and therefore conceding to their demands represents a direct challenge to the authority and sovereignty of the Philippine government. In short, a high stakes game there. Not so in Iraq - which for the Philippines is a very low stakes game, so it's a bit simplistic to really expect the gameplay to be the same.
So was it myopic for the Philippines to pull out of Iraq? Angelo de la Cruz would certainly say it wasn't. I don't think it was - it runs a risk but it seems to be a very small one, but only time will tell.
If you're truly looking for a myopic Iraq-related decision leading to increased danger to other countries in Iraq and increased prospects of kidnappings and highly-publicized, Internet-friendly beheadings, I'd start at the beginning: the invasion itself.
