Author Topic: Year-End MA After Action Report (2003)  (Read 15897 times)

Offline Dead Man Flying

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« Reply #225 on: February 09, 2004, 11:38:52 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Zazen13
I---There is a large core of players for each country that identify exclusively with that country, these people tend not to migrate, it is this core that serves as the statistical basis for each country. This core far outweighs the relative impact of numerical disparity fluctuations and the natural migration of players.


This is a statistical given.  What explains the disparity between country K/D totals?  Skill?  Flying style?  An artifact of numbers advantages or disadvantages?  Is the core group for Rooks just larger than the other core groups?

Your theory presupposes that players randomly change countries and that this randomness cancels itself out, leaving behind only the impact of the core country members.  Do we really know that players randomly switch sides?  One could argue, for example, that players hate being outnumbered and switch disproportionately to the country with the most numbers.  You would then witness a double whammy where more players leave Bishops and Knights for Rooks than leave for each other and Rooks would enjoy relatively fewer defectors than other countries.  Such a phenomenon could likewise explain the persistence of lopsided country numbers over time.

Obviously, this would work for any team -- not just Rooks -- that consistently outnumbers other teams during prime time (when most of the daily killing occurs).  You could point out that Rooks did not always enjoy prime time numbers advantages in the last year, but bear in mind that this becomes an issue of magnitude more than anything.  If one country outnumbered the others 1.5 to 1 for six months and another outnumbered the others 2 to 1 for the remaining six months, we expect that the latter country achieved more kills and a higher K/D ratio relative to the first country.  That presumes, of course, a linear relationship between the number of players on a side and the average K/D ratio.

My point is that there are alternative and in-depth explanations for what you're observing.  

-- Todd/Leviathn

Offline Zazen13

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« Reply #226 on: February 09, 2004, 11:52:55 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
This is a statistical given.  What explains the disparity between country K/D totals?  Skill?  Flying style?  An artifact of numbers advantages or disadvantages?  Is the core group for Rooks just larger than the other core groups?

Your theory presupposes that players randomly change countries and that this randomness cancels itself out, leaving behind only the impact of the core country members.  Do we really know that players randomly switch sides?  One could argue, for example, that players hate being outnumbered and switch disproportionately to the country with the most numbers.  You would then witness a double whammy where more players leave Bishops and Knights for Rooks than leave for each other and Rooks would enjoy relatively fewer defectors than other countries.  Such a phenomenon could likewise explain the persistence of lopsided country numbers over time.

Obviously, this would work for any team -- not just Rooks -- that consistently outnumbers other teams during prime time (when most of the daily killing occurs).  You could point out that Rooks did not always enjoy prime time numbers advantages in the last year, but bear in mind that this becomes an issue of magnitude more than anything.  If one country outnumbered the others 1.5 to 1 for six months and another outnumbered the others 2 to 1 for the remaining six months, we expect that the latter country achieved more kills and a higher K/D ratio relative to the first country.  That presumes, of course, a linear relationship between the number of players on a side and the average K/D ratio.

My point is that there are alternative and in-depth explanations for what you're observing.  

-- Todd/Leviathn


Interesting observations. I cannot refute that there are alot of suppositions in the theory. Until more comprehensive statistics are made available we will be left to assume. Obviously, HTC intends to make them available at some point as the interface has already been modified to accomodate them.

The fact that the Rooks month-to-month Kill rate was just as high when outnumbered all times of the day and night for close to a year tends to lean me toward saying that the core that was ROoks then, is for the most part, still Rooks now. Perhaps it was the very fact that they flew together so disadvantaged that they adopted styles more conducive to high K/D. Styles that were statistically independent of the existing numerical disparity. Without more comprehensive statistics we are left with a which came first, "The chicken or the egg" question.

The question then is, on the flip side, if numbers advantage and K/D ratio have some correlation, why did the Bishops have such a disastrously poor Kill rate even when advantaged numerically for that same year long period? Even if they flew in styles not intrinsically conducive to high K/D their sheer weight of numbers should have mollified the style effect.

With the available data I am left with the conclusion that the average skill quotient of the core players is generally higher on Rooks than Bishops, Knights being very close to the average between the two.

Zazen
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Offline Joker312

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« Reply #227 on: February 09, 2004, 07:34:15 PM »
Zazen, nice troll. Landed alot of fish.

Stats can be made to explain any point your trying to make. Meaningless to a person who logs on and just wants to have fun.

I am pleased to see that I popped 332 of those alt-monkey, horde-warrior rooks for the loss of 117 of me last camp. And I probably augered 40+ times last camp, mostly flying alone:)

Keep the game fun or unsubscribe.
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Offline Steve

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« Reply #228 on: February 09, 2004, 09:18:36 PM »
On Sundays I often switch  to knights because of rooks' huge numbers.  

Rooks have a bunch of great guys and some really good sticks.

When switching to knights I found that knights have a bunch of great guys and some really good sticks.

Last night, just for fun I switched to bish. Can ya guess what I found?  Yup, bish have a bunch of great guys and some really good sticks.
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Offline Ack-Ack

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« Reply #229 on: February 09, 2004, 11:12:04 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Kegger26
Alittle off topic After spending 30 mins dogfighting you in the DA in a JU87 I am convinced it is a pretty good dog fighter. I even killed two P40s and a Spit 5 in the CT on one sortie, all straight forward dog fighting.


That was probably the most enjoyable duel I've had so far.

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Offline Zazen13

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« Reply #230 on: February 09, 2004, 11:27:13 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Joker312
Zazen, nice troll. Landed alot of fish.


Thank-You ! I was going for the record. Haven't counted yet, still baiting the hook :aok At least I do it with style, and try to be creative, kind of like my channel 1 taunting, it's just good clean fun and very entertaining for those who don't take life too seriously. For those who do take life too seriously, I apologize in advance for your stroke, my condolences to your family!

Zazen:cool:
« Last Edit: February 09, 2004, 11:29:49 PM by Zazen13 »
Zazen PhD of Cherrypickology
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Offline pellik

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« Reply #231 on: February 10, 2004, 02:15:22 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dead Man Flying

LOL Pellik, is that you?  

-- Todd/Leviathn



I give you a little crap about flying everywhere with a posse and now whenever someone whines about you I get blamed? Is that the way it is now? ;-)

He ain't me, I'm a shade account for no-one.

-pellik
« Last Edit: February 10, 2004, 09:51:08 AM by pellik »

Offline Steve

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« Reply #232 on: February 10, 2004, 02:17:54 AM »
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Flying one way does not denote mental superiority or finely-honed mental acuity, and neither does flying in a completely contrary manner indicate mental laziness or inferiority. Until you begin to recognize this, you're going to sound like a nutcase.



So, you are saying Lazs sounds like a nutcase?
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Offline pellik

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« Reply #233 on: February 10, 2004, 02:34:40 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Ack-Ack
Rookies die just as easily as any Knitwit/Bishop in this game and those stats are like ranks, virtually meaningless.


ack-ack


The point isn't how hard it is to kill em, the problem lies with actually getting at em in the first place. I find the rooks actually go down easier then bish because they spend so little time actually fighting that they're just out of practice.

To add my two cents to the general conversation above this post, I think that this is why the rooks tend to have "better" stats every tour. I've been complaining a lot these last few tours that the rooks seem to be far more "cowardly" in their flying then the bish. I've frequently found myself low and slow with a rook over me, only to have him refuse to do more then shadow me until he gets help. This isn't to say that all countrys don't behave in this sort of behavior, just that the rooks seem to do it more. And who's supprised when this style of flying produces slightly better numbers? Being low in a 2+ on 1 is tough.

If you were to look at the K/H as well as the K/D things would probably balance out a little bit.

-pellik
« Last Edit: February 10, 2004, 03:12:15 AM by pellik »

Offline pellik

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« Reply #234 on: February 10, 2004, 02:43:34 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Zazen13
I'm just an over-achiever who strives for perfection. Nothing particular to AH, I am like that in every facet of my life. My financial success is built upon that virtue, and it serves me equally well in AH.

I will use each and every tool at my disposal if I believe it will enrich my experience and/or bring me closer to my archetypical ideal of perfection.:aok

Zazen


Is your "financial success" linked with those late night "how to make money" informercials I see on TV? The ones that don't seem to offer a product but consist entierly of an overly enthusiastic salesman throwing out mal-formed slogans like "unlocking the key to financial success"? Kinda sounds like it.

-pellik

Offline BUG_EAF322

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« Reply #235 on: February 10, 2004, 05:49:50 AM »
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZ:rolleyes:

Offline Shane

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« Reply #236 on: February 10, 2004, 06:09:32 AM »
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Originally posted by BUG_EAF322
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ:rolleyes:


AAR from your latest 25k "fly real" flight?
Surrounded by suck and underwhelmed with mediocrity.
I'm always right, it just takes some poepl longer to come to that realization than others.
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Offline BUG_EAF322

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« Reply #237 on: February 10, 2004, 06:40:36 AM »
having a prob shane ??

Offline Dead Man Flying

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« Reply #238 on: February 10, 2004, 07:43:44 AM »
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Originally posted by pellik
Quote
I give you a little crap about flying everywhere with a posse and now whenever someone whines about you I get blamed? Is that the way it is now? ;-)
[/B]

That was a joke.  Lighten up, Francis.  :)

-- Todd/Leviathn

Offline Dead Man Flying

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« Reply #239 on: February 10, 2004, 07:44:49 AM »
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Originally posted by Steve
So, you are saying Lazs sounds like a nutcase?


Having flown with Lazs before, I can say that he is Grade A certifiably insane.

-- Todd/Leviathn