karnak any 38 turning with a spit or zero is an idiot. Im talking about turnfighting with 109's, 190's, soviet fighters, P-51 and P47. Planes which the 38 should have no problem whatsoever out-turning at speeds below 250-200 mph with flaps out.
See a pattern in those planes? They are the planes the P-38 is at a disadvantage energy fighting so you force them into a turnfight at low speeds. And its in those fights that the damn flaps pull up on their own, spin you out and make you lose..a feature which does NOT affect any other plane in the set as severely as the 38.
Murdr: I think that system could be adopted as well, but with a higher treshold. (and yeah i like yours better, im not a math person

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15%=75% probability above deployment level is pretty much what we have now. youd be replacing retract with damage to flaps or jams in every fight.
id say start with 20% above deployment speed be around 15% probability and get progressively worse after that.. say 75% damage probability at 40% above deployment speed(the P-38 had the manouvering flaps locks added in mid-late war models so that the pilots couldnt deploy past those speeds for safety reasons, as some 38s were coming back with wing damage.. but those pilots reported using the flaps at well over 300mph not just mere 30mph above the lock-deployment speed).
And i say 25% because its not a 1 time deal that the 38 will exceed the deployment speed for that 30mph.. heck thats the whole freaking problem with the autoretraction, its a speed mark that the 38 easily reaches and so fast in a below horizon turn ..and as ive said before the plane will slow down barely a second or 2 later to waay under the deployment speed as the turnfight continues above horizon.
I would say in a turnfight i make a good 20 or so 'turns' with a con (yes me being on its 6 and close to getting a shot)..up and down horizon. 20 chances of being hit by a 75% damage chance if i exceed the 30mph (about 15% over deployment speed) is waay too high.
hows :
over deployment speed %: speed OVER the 150 retract point: Prob of damage happening
20% : +30 mph : 15%
25% : +38 mph : 25%
30% : +45 mph : 35%
35% : +52 mph : 55%
40% : +60 mph : 75 %
50% : +75 mph : 100%
note the jump from 35% prob to 55% then to 75%. of damage and then the guaranteed damage point.
when in the turnfight its those 30 mph to 45mph that would remove the 'touch the retract point for the split second' problem while still having the pilot have a decent but low chance of damage each time it happens..and a rather high chance of it happening if the flaps are obviously being abused 35% above retract speed and higher.