Iran

[Seagoon]

Hi All,

What I wonder about is the greater strategic thinking of the Iranians behind all of this.

The evidence seems to indicate that the operation was planned in advance, the Iranian Revolutionary guards took only 3 minutes to move from their monitoring positions on their side of the waterway to the Indian flagged Dhow the British were inspecting and managed to nab the boarding party at their most vulnerable moment, after the helo had withdrawn, and as they were climbing down the side of the ship back into their RIBs.

What, though, was the strategic objective behind the kidnapping?

1) To provoke the US & Britain into aggression against Iran and thus begin active hostillities?

or

2) To demonstrate to the Islamic world how weak the US and Britain actually are in regards to Iran, thus gaining greater support at a time when they are thumbing their nose at the worldwide community over the Nuclear issue?

Both scenarios actually make a lot of sense from the Iranian point of view.

The first because Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Mullahs have stated that they expect such a conflict to precede the return of the Mahdi and the final victory of Islam. But even without the crazed apocalyptic angle, such a conflict would still make sense.

The US and Britain cannot hope to win such a conflict conventionally. Sure their armed forces could capture any particular city in Iran they wanted to, the problem as has been demonstrated in Iraq is not in taking territory it is in holding territory and pacifying the area. When you are dealing with a nation stocked to the gills with a population willing to die in matyrdom operations, and you are unable politically or morally to take the draconian steps necessary to pacify such a people, outright invasion looks even less viable than the invasion of the Japanese home islands was in 1945.

So, any conventional conflict would end in a manner similar to that of the Hezbollah/Israel war with the US and Britain forced to withdraw and with the prestige of Iran in the middle east boosted yet again. Additionally, the Iranian spin on the circumstances of the conflict "Our Sacred Territory was once again violated by those lying Imperialist infidel apes and pigs" would bring strong  support from both the Islamic world and the limitless cadre of nations that despise America.

Additionally an open conflict would allow them to operate openly rather than semi-covertly in Iraq, and would help with the creation of a Shia state in Southern Iraq. Certainly the support of the Shia militias in Iraq for their war efforts would be guaranteed, so the US and Britain would be fighting Shi' ite guerillas and Shaheeds in both countries at once.

The Second scenario makes sense because they need continuing support from nations like China and Russia as well as the Arab world in order to continue their nuclear program despite UN sanctions. They need to show that the US and Britain are hopelessly overextended militarily and politically, that they can be bullied and are in fact paper tigers, and that there is no need to back down as Libya did. At this point as well, Ahmadinejad needs to rally the Iranian ummah to channel their hatred towards the infidels (rather than the leaders who are impoverishing them) and show that there is no reason to be afraid of threats from the decadent West.

What I think will indicate if it is 1 or 2 that they were after will be if they offer to release the sailors after a full apology from the UK. Clearly if they choose to try them it will have been #1 that they wanted all along.

Frankly, its hard for me to see how they can lose. Economic sanctions won't phase them, and nothing short of Nukes will militarily defeat them, and from their point of view, even if they all die, they still win. Nothing short of a radical change in worldview will prevail in that country.

- SEAGOON

[Hap]

Well said Seagoon!

Sure would be tidy to be able to never buy another drop of their precious oil.

For those of you who guffaw, check out the thread in here about "Shifts."  I took the time to watch the video.  It wasn't what I expected.  What it was is a matter for discussion.

Shift happens.

[Eagler]

Howdy Seagoon

afraid you are correct - unless we show some form of resolve, the US will lose whatever respect/fear that is left

[Hap]

Originally posted by Eagler
unless we show some form of resolve, the US will lose whatever respect/fear that is left

If you mean our allies or other nations, well . . . I guess.

If you mean Islam doing the fearing and respecting, I doubt they'll go along.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1604546,00.html

The Ex-CIA Field Officer who wrote the very short essay, above, casts that war may be inevitable.

[ghi]

I wouldn't be surprised to see on Tv "Breaking News" ,  : < US, UK and Israel  launched a massive air strike against Iran, >
  I think oil price would imediately jump to 100-150 $ /barel,
 The super sensitive stock market and global economy  could colapse,
 It lost hundreds of bilions in 1 day , 2 weeks ago, after Alan Greenspan said something pesimistic about US economy, This job with Iran is very delicate dificult, with deadly side efects,

[Masherbrum]

Originally posted by ghi
I wouldn't be surprised to see on Tv "Breaking News" ,  : < US, UK and Israel  launched a massive air strike against Iran, >
  I think oil price would imediately jump to 100-150 $ /barel,
 The super sensitive stock market and global economy  could colapse,
 It lost hundreds of bilions in 1 day , 2 weeks ago, after Alan Greenspan said something pesimistic about US economy, This job with Iran is very delicate dificult, with deadly side efects,

Oil prices would go down, not up.  

Piss on Iran.

[lasersailor184]

Originally posted by ghi
I wouldn't be surprised to see on Tv "Breaking News" ,  : < US, UK and Israel  launched a massive air strike against Iran, >
  I think oil price would imediately jump to 100-150 $ /barel,
 The super sensitive stock market and global economy  could colapse,
 It lost hundreds of bilions in 1 day , 2 weeks ago, after Alan Greenspan said something pesimistic about US economy, This job with Iran is very delicate dificult, with deadly side efects,

And just like every other war in the history of the world EVER EVER the economies will go up (with the exception of Iran's Economy).

[Hap]

Raise standards of living via warfare.

Thank God for the electoral college.

[Bodhi]

Originally posted by Masherbrum
Oil prices would go down, not up.  

Piss on Iran.

No, I do not think that would be the case.  Oil prices would inflate owing to investors being nervous concerning supply issues.  Remember when they rose when the Iranians closed the Gulf during the 80's?

All in all, I think Iran will hold out and eventually get a public apology from the UK.  Not that I agree with that or that the UK is weak, it's just politics with Iran.

[Maverick]

Originally posted by Hap
Raise standards of living via warfare.

Thank God for the electoral college.

Don't you have anything else of value to add to a discussion rather than old tired political sound bites? I wondered how long it would be before some one dropped the "it's Bush's fault".

[Bodhi]

Originally posted by Hap
If you mean our allies or other nations, well . . . I guess.

If you mean Islam doing the fearing and respecting, I doubt they'll go along.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1604546,00.html

The Ex-CIA Field Officer who wrote the very short essay, above, casts that war may be inevitable.

Interesting read Hap.

I find it difficult to believe we would attack Iran over this issue.  That in and of itself would drive the left wing insane and cause chaos within our politics whose ramifications may just be the death nell to the right wing that the left is hoping for.

I hope calmer heads prevail.

[Hap]

Originally posted by Maverick
Don't you have anything else of value to add to a discussion rather than old tired political sound bites? I wondered how long it would be before some one dropped the "it's Bush's fault".

Mav,

You need a refund on your mind reading lessons.  I wasn't thinking of Bush &/or anything about his adminsitration.

Bodhi,

I find it difficult to believe we would attack Iran over this issue. That in and of itself would drive the left wing insane and cause chaos within our politics whose ramifications may just be the death nell to the right wing that the left is hoping for.

I hope calmer heads prevail.

I too am always in the "cooler head" camp.  I can see war ensuing though I don't know that the "left wing" nor "right wing" exists outide of Washington, the media, and websites and blogs, in the sense that fits well into your sentence.  I certainly have used the same lingo and probably will again in the future.

I guess what I'm trying to say is there is a "political marketing industry" that is very well served by getting people to think that consolidated, unified, cohesive -- in a word -- unified -- political camps exist and are few and fairly well deliniated in America.  It makes for good talk radio, and makes it easy to pin point "us" and "them."

I think the "wings" of both Democratic and Republican parties are short lived creatures.  Lasting for a generation or so.  For example, take the platform for either party in '59 or '63 (I might have the dates wrong) and compare them to what passes for being a good Republican or good Democrat today.  I think there'll be some planks that those who identify themselves as staunch Repubs or Dems would not endorse.  Don't know for sure, but I think the supposition apt.

I see 2 alternatives only: war or finding a way to get on with only our own oil.

Neither will happen overnight.  At least I hope not for war overnight.  And whatever shakes out, "necessity" will have a part either due to procrastination and reluctance, or haste and eagerness.  

I'd like to think nations want to avoid war.  That was not the case in WWI where they went to war singing was the phrase a history professor used to describe the jingoistic confidence.  Did y'all catch the news article in USA Today, that 6 Americans are still alive who served in WWI.  A good read if you can find it.  The author, or a prof, makes the claim that all the stuff in the Middle East stems from the map redrawing at that time.  I may have overstated that a tad, but that's the sense.

Take Care,

hap

p.s.  I just peeked at this article long enough to read the first sentence.  I the rest follows, the author echoes many sentiments I've seen expressed here.  And, it follows suit with the discussion at hand.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=KTA0FPSKNE5O5QFIQMFSFGGAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2007/03/30/wiran730.xml

[ghi]

imop,the british diplomacy can't stop them, acording with the prophecies of the last days ,the Bible (Daniel,Reveletion,Ezekiel,), Nostradamus, are talking about the 3rd Antichrist and a new great  power  will arise in Iran and Central Asia. It will begin as an Iranian-led federation that will include nations and territories , and are going to invade Europe,

Ezekiel 38:5

" Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet: ..."

From Nostradamus:
 shows clear in many quatrains, the Persian/iranian involvement in ww3, just few below


 Naples, Palermo, and all Sicily
The entire coast will remain desolated:
There will remain no suburb, city or town
Not pillaged and robbed by the Barbarians. (C.7:6)

The chief of Persia will occupy great Olchades
The trireme fleet against the Mahometan people
From Parthia, and Media: and the Cyclades pillaged:
Long rest at the Ionian port. (C.3:64)

  The great Arab will march far forward
He will be betrayed by the Byzantians:
Ancient Rhodes will come to meet him
And greater harm through the Austrian Panonnois. (C.5:47)


Through fire and arms not far from the Black Sea,
Will come from Persia to occupy Trebizand
To tremble Pharos, Myteline, Sol joyful
The Adriatic Sea covered with Arab blood. (C.5:27)

France because of Negligence assailed on five sides,
Tunis, Algiers stirred up by Persians:
Leon, Seville, Barcelona having failed,
For the Venetians there will be no fleet. (C.1:73)

[Maverick]

Then perhaps you might want to expand on what this quote was intended to convey.

Thank God for the electoral college.

[moot]

ghi, you realize that astrologers and other mysticals can make their predictions apply to any actual event past, present or future, given how unspecific everything they predict is?

Similar patterns happen all the time between two or more sciences, countries, political parties, lifestyles, people across the globes, etc.  You can make anything into anything with "mystic" connections.
http://www.drabruzzi.com/images/Then%20a%20Miracle%20Occurs.jpg