Originally posted by Boroda
Brits didn't distract any significant forces in 1941-42. Even fearfull Rommel's Afrika Corps could simply disappear in the Eastern Front, two-three divisions more didn't make it any worse.
They came close to taking Moscow, but so what? Napoleon did it in 1812, Poles did it in 1611, did it help them? With industry rebuilding at Urals it was only a matter of time to kick them out. Yes, there could me much-much more blood, but not total extinction as in case they win.
Barbarossa was planned in late-1940. Japanese were watching at least until Dec 1941, if they refused from attacking the US they needed several months to build up forces against USSR. IMHO in case they attack - about 20% probability of surviving and returning to pre-war borders, but it may be too optimistic.
Hehe, rubbish.
With the Brits out of the game from the summer of 1940, what can Axis add to operation Barbarossa, - even WITHOUT the japanese, - which however and unavoidably, but not unwillingly, would be drawn in...:
1: Axis naval power into the Black Sea. No British Plug in the way.
That means also that Germany as well as Italy would have had their battlewagons free to go as well as not resting on the bottom of the sea.
The biggest factor might however have been a sea-link for supplies and troops to make a proper front from the black sea. USSR had no naval power to counter this.
2: Roughly twice the airpower. (Bear in mind that the Axis lost more aircraft to the Western powers in some 4 months of 1940 than to the USSR in the entire year of 1944.) Please say that double a Luftwaffe would have meant nothing...
3: Much much more troops, since there would be no need to keep a strong line towards the British. You are not just adding the Africa corps, - you are adding everything lost until Barbarossa. There would have been no Greek campaign, no Crete, no sentry from down in Norway to the Mediterranian.
In short, very much more of troops, backup and transport.
4: Much more economical backup, since there would be no more RN to stand in the way to deal with i.e. the USA. Bear in mind that the lend-lease pact between the USA and UK only passed by a margin (and without FDR it might not have passed), and at the same time Germany had open business with the USA, - just no transport. So, - USSR might also have faced materials from uncle Sam.
I think, Boroda, that you have your eyes and nose too much on just the land war in the USSR. As big as it was indeed, the USSR came close to buckling, and not only once. Moscow was close, Stalingrad was close, and even Kursk could have meant a turnaround.
Anyway, I stick to my opinion, that if the British had made peace with the Axis in 1940, the Axis would have had USSR for breakfast.
Prost.