Ah.
Well, I'm not sure about any downturn in pilot production. There is a shortage of aircraft to fly that's for sure, but they still need officers with rated experience (ie. pilots) to fill an awful lot of non-flying staff jobs.
The current plan is to keep a bunch of F-16s around, send pilots through pilot training, get them 2 or 3 years flying vipers, and then send them to staff jobs or UAVs with very little chance of returning to fly.
That sorta sucks. We're back to spending the smallest percentage of our GNP on defense since pre-WWII at the same time we simply MUST modernize our front line equipment (re: F-15s falling apart). That means we're a few short years away from the proverbial paper force... We'll have all sorts of capabilities on paper, but nobody around with any current skills to actually do anything.
Those nukes that got "lost" at the B-52 base... That sort of thing doesn't happen if your nuke certified folks are current, qualified, and spend an appropriate amount of time training in that mission. Instead, those nuke warriors (maintainers too) are also part-time finance officers, part time personnelists, janitors, painters, amature civil engineers, etc.
So... I wouldn't bet on a drastic reduction in pilot production but then again maybe I'm wrong. I do know that if our washout rate drops because of more effective screening, and if our UPT grads do better in follow-on training due to adjustments in our syllabus with the new T-6 and T-38C, then they won't have to START as many students in training in order to END with fully combat qualified pilots after training.