Personally, I think the HO is a valuable tool in the quest for "better fights". I'm all in favor of it. Without it as a possibility, and without people willing to take it, I fell our fights would be "cheapened". I honestly have zero interest in a fight with no possibility of an HO, or for that matter, against an opponent who's "scared" to take a shot on me when he has it.
If you can kill me with an HO, go for it. If you kill me, I don't deserve to have the fight drag out for one iota of a second longer. If I "fail" at the opening move, I fail. Simple as that. To "pass" on the shot, to let the fight drag out beyond that point makes the fight a "sham".
Now, if you choose to pass on it in order to jockey for a better position, I can respect that. I'll do the same. But, if you fly/merge poorly and present me with a shot, well, I may pass on it, but not without a twinge of guilt, and a disinterest in the rest of the fight. For me, that fight is already over, and you lost... Who cares about the fight to follow? You blew it on the merge.
Let the fight drag out, and then what? If you shoot me down, I'm looking at it like "I can't believe I wasted my time on that. The fight was over before it began, and even though his merge was horrid, and would have likely killed him IRL, he's thinking he's got this dogfighting thing figured out?". If I win later in the fight, so what? The fight was over at the beginning in my mind.
I see a lot of horrid merges, where my opponent honestly deserves to be face-shot. I pass on about 99.9% of those. Maybe it's the teacher in me, but the instant I see that I'm thinking "Dammit! I should have taken that shot, just to teach this guy a lesson. What a ridiculous merge..." If I've got my opponent on vox, I'm more likely to take that shot, though. Why? To end the fight. To take him away from it and say "Look, we've got to fix that aspect of your fight before we go any further". I don't care how good you are in the later, or possibly more elaborate parts of the fight, if you can't live through the first 3 seconds.
Now, I'm not advocating that people go for the HO... That's not my point. I don't generally see it as a good option in a fight, even though I don't believe for an instant in the 50/50 thing. I'm going to be looking at what I see as better options, and I'd prefer it if you do too. But, don't feel like you have to. And don't you dare pass up a kill-shot on me if you have it! Don't waste my time... If you have a kill-shot on me, end the fight. Please...