Malaysian airlines 777 missing

[bigsky]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 every 108 minutes.

[GScholz]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 every 108 minutes.

Does that mean we finally get to know what was really going on?

[Arlo]

Does that mean we finally get to know what was really going on?

You're .... lost .... aren't you? 

[GScholz]

Like a Hobbit on a tropical island...

[zack1234]

We will never find out!

[Rolex]

A couple of questions to add to the Gobi desert area theory are "who" and "why?"

The leader of the Muslim Uighur ethnic group (who is hidden in Pakistan) claimed they have many more attacks planned against China in their goal to establish a new country called East Turkestan in that Gobi Desert/northwestern area of China. He's claimed an all out war and vowed revenge for the crackdown on his group by China.

However, their attacks have always been low-tech. I don't know if they have the smarts to put together a sophisticated plan to use the plane. They would more likely just want to kill hostages in some public way in their revenge.

But who flew the plane? Who on the plane had the heavy time to be able to land it somewhere off airport?

It could be a suicide by one of the flight crew. Why not just crash it? People get second thoughts. Some people don't want a crash from the cockpit view. Taking the plane to FL45 (as some reports have said) along with outflow valve manipulation would put them out very quickly. Not all suicidal people can take an action leading to being ripped to shreds in a crash. Going to sleep is painless.

Again, just speculation. This sure is bizarre. Who else on the plane had the ability to navigate between those waypoints?

[Ripsnort]

Be real.  If it is terrorism it is likely those responsible are/were Muslim it is also true that the vast majority of Muslims have never committed a terrorist act.

It is highly unlikely this was an intentional act by the crew.  I am much more interested in the stolen passports and if there is a group with particular grievances with either Malaysia's government or China's government.

Actually now the Malaysia government is saying it is highly likely.

While other theories are still being examined, the U.S. official said key evidence suggesting human intervention is that contact with the Boeing 777′s transponder stopped about a dozen minutes before a messaging system on the jet quit. Such a gap would be unlikely in the case of an in-flight catastrophe.

The Malaysian official said only a skilled aviator could navigate the plane the way it was flown after its last confirmed location over the South China Sea. The official said it had been established with a “more than 50 percent” degree of certainty that military radar had picked up the missing plane after it dropped off civilian radar.

Why anyone would want to do this is unclear. Malaysian authorities have been urgently investigating the backgrounds of the two pilots and 10 crew members, as well the 227 passengers on board.

Some experts have said that pilot suicide may be the most likely explanation for the disappearance, as was suspected in a SilkAir crash during a flight from Singapore to Jakarta in 1997 and an EgyptAir flight in 1999.

Pilots become focus of probe

[Mace2004]

India has complete radar coverage of their entire border, including their coastline. They have in fact multi-sensor coverage of most of it, not only radar.

I'm sure they do have a capable system but it's not without its limits.  The Xinhau news agency reported http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-03/16/c_126272172.htm the Indian response to the Malaysian PM's claim that the plane could be in Kyrgyzstan.  The Indians described their system and how it couldn't have been penetrated without their knowledge but also admitted that "There are large areas in the Kolkata FIR, particularly over Bay of Bengal, that have no radar coverage at present.  A radar has been installed in Andaman and Nicobar Islands but is yet to be commissioned." While the Indians would certainly want to thump their chests about coverage it doesn't look to be nearly as capable as they make it sound. Right up the Bay of Bengal is where the Malaysian flight would have flown if it made landfall over Bangladesh or Myanmar and I've seen no reports from either making similar claims about the "impenetrability" of their airspace.

Also, the report does describe what you could call a "multi-sensor" system: "According to the report, Kolkata airport has an Automatic Dependence Surveillance Radar and Controller-Pilot Datalink Communication that enables it to not only trail planes when it is in the radar zone of 60 nautical miles or nearly 120 km and beyond through very high frequency radio, but also through the data link when the plane goes out of voice communication range."  Notice that these systems all rely on electronic emissions from the aircraft (ADSR, VHF radio and data link) which, of course, the airplane wasn't emitting (with the exception of the satellite "ping" which would not be detected by these systems.)  That said, I have no idea what additional technology the Indian military might have in that area.

[Mace2004]

A couple of questions to add to the Gobi desert area theory are "who" and "why?"

The leader of the Muslim Uighur ethnic group (who is hidden in Pakistan) claimed they have many more attacks planned against China in their goal to establish a new country called East Turkestan in that Gobi Desert/northwestern area of China. He's claimed an all out war and vowed revenge for the crackdown on his group by China.

However, their attacks have always been low-tech. I don't know if they have the smarts to put together a sophisticated plan to use the plane. They would more likely just want to kill hostages in some public way in their revenge.

But who flew the plane? Who on the plane had the heavy time to be able to land it somewhere off airport?

It could be a suicide by one of the flight crew. Why not just crash it? People get second thoughts. Some people don't want a crash from the cockpit view. Taking the plane to FL45 (as some reports have said) along with outflow valve manipulation would put them out very quickly. Not all suicidal people can take an action leading to being ripped to shreds in a crash. Going to sleep is painless.

Again, just speculation. This sure is bizarre. Who else on the plane had the ability to navigate between those waypoints?

Those are all good questions that nobody can answer right now because they're about motives not physical or electronic facts.  There are far more terrorist groups than most people realize all with their own agendas and goals.  Maybe someone will demand that China free Tibet or the Government of Thailand step down, who knows?  Of course, it could be just about money as well.  Maybe some cash-strapped country like Iran is using one of its many proxy groups or maybe it's just some guys who think they'll get rich, a "Great Train Robbery" for the 21st Century.  Again, who knows?  All I am sure of is that the physical/electronic evidence that's been released so far, if accurate, points to a hijacking and the plane having landed (or crashed) somewhere along that arc in Asia.  I know that the idea is certainly feasible and even likely based simply on the numbers but, then again, feasible isn't the same as proven.

[Mace2004]

Here's some more interesting comments regarding radar coverage reported by the UK's Daily Mail:  

Radar coverage of the area where flight MH370 went missing is patchy and often not even switched on, according to aviation experts.  It has emerged today that civilian systems do not cover large swatches of the areas the plane could have gone, and that military systems are often left off to save money.

Air Vice Marshal Michael Harwood, a former RAF pilot, said: ‘Too many movies and Predator [drone] feeds from Afghanistan have suckered people into thinking we know everything and see everything. ‘You get what you pay for. And the world, by and large, does not pay.'

Air traffic control teams rely on transponders signals to track planes- but investigators believe that the device was intentionally switched off on the missing aircraft. Military systems, meanwhile, are often limited, switched off , or routinely ignore aircraft they do not think are suspicious. A Rear Admiral in the Indian armed forces, which are aiding search efforts over the Andaman Islands, said: ‘It's possible that the military radars were switched off as we operate on an "as required" basis.’

Of course, being the press, we do have to take what they say with a grain of salt.  For instance, in the same article it calls the Indian Ocean INMARSAT satellite a "military radar" which is, of course, not even remotely close to an accurate description.

[Brooke]

My hypotheses:

One or both pilots were in on it.  This is because of the sophistication of what was done to turn off electronic communications equipment and how the plane was flown after its transponder was turned off, which shows airline-pilot-level familiarity with the systems, radar zones in that specific region, etc. and intent other than just suicide.

All passengers and the rest of the crew might have been killed by flying the plane for a while at 40,000 ft. while depressurized.  Oxygen masks for passengers might not have a large duration of oxygen or be able to keep someone alive for a prolonged period at 40k.  If they weren't killed, they'll be on the plane for the horrible purpose below or as a backup if the plane is discovered, as hostages.

The jet had enough fuel to make it to its intended landing area.  The folks who pulled this off obviously planned things out.  Figuring out if the plane has enough fuel is one of the easier parts of the plan.

The landing area is China or Pakistan -- probably western China (as otherwise, it would need to overfly all of India and then have just barely enough range to land in Pakistan).

The jet is intended to be used in a terrorist activity, but against whom?  If it were to be crashed into some Chinese buildings, why hijack it instead of doing it while inbound?  Maybe they couldn't get pilots who were willing to do that but who were willing to hijack it?  It would be hard to move the airliner all across the world to go crash it into something in the US.  Is Russia the target?  They are another country that gets attacked by Muslims.  Is Israel the target?  Do they think that they can refit the plane and sneak it in there or force Israel to shoot down an airliner with a bunch of people on it (or bodies)?

My hope is that the passengers are still alive and get found before any next steps are done by the terrorists.

[GScholz]

I'm sure they do have a capable system but it's not without its limits.  The Xinhau news agency reported http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-03/16/c_126272172.htm the Indian response to the Malaysian PM's claim that the plane could be in Kyrgyzstan.  The Indians described their system and how it couldn't have been penetrated without their knowledge but also admitted that "There are large areas in the Kolkata FIR, particularly over Bay of Bengal, that have no radar coverage at present.  A radar has been installed in Andaman and Nicobar Islands but is yet to be commissioned." While the Indians would certainly want to thump their chests about coverage it doesn't look to be nearly as capable as they make it sound. Right up the Bay of Bengal is where the Malaysian flight would have flown if it made landfall over Bangladesh or Myanmar and I've seen no reports from either making similar claims about the "impenetrability" of their airspace.

Also, the report does describe what you could call a "multi-sensor" system: "According to the report, Kolkata airport has an Automatic Dependence Surveillance Radar and Controller-Pilot Datalink Communication that enables it to not only trail planes when it is in the radar zone of 60 nautical miles or nearly 120 km and beyond through very high frequency radio, but also through the data link when the plane goes out of voice communication range."  Notice that these systems all rely on electronic emissions from the aircraft (ADSR, VHF radio and data link) which, of course, the airplane wasn't emitting (with the exception of the satellite "ping" which would not be detected by these systems.)  That said, I have no idea what additional technology the Indian military might have in that area.

However, you assume the suspected hijackers knew exactly where to avoid detection. I'm sure it is possible, but I find it very unlikely.


The Indians have placed a network of sensor towers like this one...




All along their coastline...




I'm guessing that they're building all these secondary optical sensor networks since stealth aircraft are about to become a lot more prolific with the F-35.

[MrRiplEy[H]]

However, you assume the suspected hijackers knew exactly where to avoid detection. I'm sure it is possible, but I find it very unlikely.


The Indians have placed a network of sensor towers like this one...

(Image removed from quote.)


All along their coastline...

(Image removed from quote.)


I'm guessing that they're building all these secondary optical sensor networks since stealth aircraft are about to become a lot more prolific with the F-35.

Knowing India that optics will be blocked by a fat cow sitting in front of it, or a pack of rats. And I wish I was kidding!

[GScholz]

Perhaps that's why there putting them on towers.

[Rich46yo]

I think the Malaysians have screwed the pooch in this investigation and should turn it over to the NTSB or the European equivalent. Or better, Both.