Author Topic: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)  (Read 15907 times)

Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2017, 04:28:47 PM »
By the way, I do think it's fine to have a couple of Tempests and Ta 152's.  Just a couple on each side isn't going to be unbalancing or too out of whack.  Tempests were in the battle.  And it sets up the possibility of the famous fight between Tempests and Ta 152's on the deck.


Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2017, 05:02:19 PM »
By the way, to make sure there are no feelings of being misled in future votes, I'll make make sure to clarify the tentative nature of things until the design process, that the short descriptions give the theme of battle but not necessarily exact details.

Offline TheBug

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2017, 06:00:13 PM »
You need to dump the voting and just design a scenario.
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2017, 06:51:39 PM »
Things are going along decently, and it will be a fun battle.

TheBug, what are you going to fly in it?

Offline BaldEagl

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2017, 08:18:32 PM »
I have it on the authority of the intelligent part of the AH community that it was the Russians who hacked the vote.

As to the bulge maybe we could just build a wall to keep them out.
I edit a lot of my posts.  Get used to it.

Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2017, 10:27:32 PM »
I have it on the authority of the intelligent part of the AH community that it was the Russians who hacked the vote.

As to the bulge maybe we could just build a wall to keep them out.

Those darned Russians!

They also hacked US fighter design with the P-47!

Offline Beefcake

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2017, 11:53:28 PM »
So I have a request, I'm thinking of joining in with Sir HitlerVudu but I need bombers. Can the Axis get some bombers like some B25s? I mean there should've been enough parts from Tunisia to rebuild a few.
Retired Bomber Dweeb - 71 "Eagle" Squadron RAF

Offline Guppy35

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2017, 01:13:51 AM »
Use Spit XVI's.  They and the LF IXes were essentially the same and outfitted for ground attack.  The XVI is the closest to what was flying at the time.  The XIV's were much smaller in number and were for the air to air role.
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2017, 01:25:07 AM »
So I have a request, I'm thinking of joining in with Sir HitlerVudu but I need bombers. Can the Axis get some bombers like some B25s? I mean there should've been enough parts from Tunisia to rebuild a few.

Howdy, Beefcake.

There are a few reasons why there aren't any bombers on the German side.  As far as I can tell, they didn't have many Ju 88's flying around (compared to number of fighters and US bombers).  Also, Ju 88's would get massacred in this environment.  It will be tough enough on B-26's.  Third is that it would be hard to fill all the bombers if we double the amount of them.

There are plenty of B-26's awaiting you, though.

Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2017, 01:40:04 AM »
Use Spit XVI's.  They and the LF IXes were essentially the same and outfitted for ground attack.  The XVI is the closest to what was flying at the time.  The XIV's were much smaller in number and were for the air to air role.

I think that is a good call.  Production of the Spit IX changed to LF version in the 2nd half of 1943.  As you say, the LF IX and the XVI were nearly the same plane (just US built Merlin 66, called the Merlin 266, in the XVI vs. the UK built Merlin 66 in the LF IX).

Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #40 on: January 16, 2017, 03:58:23 PM »
A couple of changes to the Luftwaffe group names (based on info in one of the references).  Put in dates and times.  Going to use germany terrain instead of germanyw terrain because of weirdness with the winter tiles in germanyw that will take HTC involvement to fix and so are a future item.

Resulting writeup posted here:

http://electraforge.com/brooke/flightsims/scenarios/201702_HellOverHinterland/rules.html

Please hit refresh on your browser to get latest version.

Offline ROC

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #41 on: January 17, 2017, 06:20:27 PM »
You know, I wasn't going to say a thing but this is it, I've had it.

I rejected a design similar to this before, it's ridiculous.

Allies
8 B26 bombers, with formations, 24 Planes.  4k ordinance per plane, 12k per formation.  Hangers require 7k ord. Hangers 6 points.
10 Attack planes hitting ground targets 3 points each.
28 Fighters attacking Axis and defending Self Gunned Bombers

Axis
28 Fighters who get 1 point Per Plane shot down.
10 Attack planes who get 3 points Per Object destroyed.

If 28 Fighters do nothing but shoot down 100% of the B26s they gain 24 points.  If they go for fighters, they get a point but missed bombers get 6.
If each bomber drops a full load and takes down one hanger, 48 points.   If they salvo correctly they can potentially get over 70 points.  IF the Axis kill 50% of the Allied bombers and the other successfully 50% drop, it's a TIE.  So the Axis can drain their planes and take down half the bombers and the bombers can still equal them.  Now, add in that the bombers can shoot back.  Now also add in that 100% of the Axis fighter planes are draining their ammo taking down the bombers, and the Allies STILL have 100% of their fighters. 
You then even took out the OPTION of putting the Attack planes up in the air to take down bombers instead of ground objects.  Doing everything you can to script a win.

I am sick to death of trying to explain this BASIC concept to you guys. I'm going Axis.  This is sad. 
http://www.gcflearnfree.org/topics/math/
ROC
Nothing clever here.  Please, move along.

Offline Devil 505

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #42 on: January 17, 2017, 06:44:43 PM »
You know, I wasn't going to say a thing but this is it, I've had it.

I rejected a design similar to this before, it's ridiculous.

Allies
8 B26 bombers, with formations, 24 Planes.  4k ordinance per plane, 12k per formation.  Hangers require 7k ord. Hangers 6 points.
10 Attack planes hitting ground targets 3 points each.
28 Fighters attacking Axis and defending Self Gunned Bombers

Axis
28 Fighters who get 1 point Per Plane shot down.
10 Attack planes who get 3 points Per Object destroyed.

If 28 Fighters do nothing but shoot down 100% of the B26s they gain 24 points.  If they go for fighters, they get a point but missed bombers get 6.
If each bomber drops a full load and takes down one hanger, 48 points.   If they salvo correctly they can potentially get over 70 points.  IF the Axis kill 50% of the Allied bombers and the other successfully 50% drop, it's a TIE.  So the Axis can drain their planes and take down half the bombers and the bombers can still equal them.  Now, add in that the bombers can shoot back.  Now also add in that 100% of the Axis fighter planes are draining their ammo taking down the bombers, and the Allies STILL have 100% of their fighters. 
You then even took out the OPTION of putting the Attack planes up in the air to take down bombers instead of ground objects.  Doing everything you can to script a win.

I am sick to death of trying to explain this BASIC concept to you guys. I'm going Axis.  This is sad. 
http://www.gcflearnfree.org/topics/math/

Reminds me of how bad "Battle Over the Winter Line" was. No surprise as to why either. Can't fix stupid, I guess.
Kommando Nowotny

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Offline Beefcake

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #43 on: January 17, 2017, 07:55:24 PM »
Just an idea from a player on the outside looking in. (since I may not get to participate) Given what I perceive as an advantage in ordnance the Allies have, why not allow the Axis attack aircraft to be unshackled from being forced into the attack role.

Here's my logic:
-The Allies have 3 attack groups compared to the Axis two.
-The Allies attack aircraft, IMO, have better bomb and ammo loadouts for attacking compared to the F8s with the current hardness of objects.
-If the Axis CO uses his Attackers for Air defense then he's not attacking (IE Scoring Points).
-IMO it will be much easier for the Allies to score points than the Axis and the only chance the Axis have of stopping the farming of points is to kill the Allied aircraft and the CO needs all the fighters he can get.

Another idea maybe to allow one attack group to have a swap aircraft like Ju88s or 110s or maybe a 109 they can use in place of the F8 should the need arise.
Retired Bomber Dweeb - 71 "Eagle" Squadron RAF

Offline Brooke

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Re: Hell Over the Hinterland design (Feb/March 2017 scenario)
« Reply #44 on: January 17, 2017, 07:56:36 PM »
I, too, find that giving suggestions marinated in a sea of insults works great with co-workers, associates, and people I interact with.  It's such a great tactic that I run my businesses and personal life that way.  :aok

Anyway, here is the reason for the scoring.  Everything is equal except for bombers, which are asymmetric.  For that to work, you have to estimate likelihoods and what is typical, and make that your zero point in scoring, so that if you do typical, it's a wash.  If you do better than typical, you gain points, and if you do worse than typical you lose points.  You have to look at probabilities of things, not just endpoints.

Based on past scenarios, my estimate is that mediocre or middle-of-the-road performance (not great and not the worst) is about half the bombers making it to target and bombing, and then getting shot down on the way back out.  That then gives a delta of zero points.  If you do poorly, you lose all your bombers short of target, and the points delta is negative.  If you do better than mediocre, you get more of them back home or more of them to target and the points delta is positive.

The delta for N formations in the middle-of-the-road case is -3N points from loss of bombers and +6*0.5*N points for hitting targets, for a delta of zero.  Do worse than that and get negative delta; do better and get positive delta.

ROC's point is that if you look at the endpoints, you get -3N if you lose all bombers short of target, and you get +6N if you get all bombers to target and they all make it back.  However, in setups like this, it is more likely that all bombers get shot down than all bombers make it to target and back.  I think it's about half as likely to get all bombers to target and back than it is to loose all the bombers.  If so, then you need points for all bombers to target and back to be worth twice the points of losing all bombers for the probability distribution to work out evenly.

It's like with roulette.  You bet $10 on a number.  If you lose, you lose your $10.  If you win, you get $350.  Does that mean its unfair to the house that they pay $350 if your number comes up but only get $10 if it doesn't?  No, because the odds of your number coming up isn't 50/50.

So, we can talk about how bomber scoring should go, but we should skip the insulting tone -- no need for that -- and add in liklihoods, which is needed, not just endpoints, which is an incomplete analysis.

As for attackers not being able to attack bombers, that isn't the case.  They just can't fly at 20k when they are carrying bombs or rockets.  Why?  (1) Because they weren't able to do that in the actual battles and still discover their ground targets and (2) because if we have some sort of overall alt cap and attackers can fly at it, they can just blow through fighter defenses (which also is totally unrealistic).  Bombers can't fly higher than attackers with rockets and bombs, bombers might not always be at the alt cap (so attackers even with rockets and bombs could sometimes be higher), and attackers can fly at whatever alt they want if they aren't carrying rockets or bombs.

Quote
Doing everything you can to script a win.

That is completely false.

Brooke is about a biased as a sock.

That is true.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 10:14:14 PM by Brooke »