Dark Man Cometh???

[Brooke]

Can anyone give me an argument based on hard facts why 2 mil US deaths

This is why governments and government health agencies are taking more action than for a flu season.

Here's hoping it ends up not being that horrible.

[Brooke]

I'm not even going to say out-loud how low I think it will go.  You'd call me nuts. 

I've been worrying about that for years.  2008 was bad, but to me, things since 2008 have gotten way crazier in bonds, stocks, real estate, derivatives, and overall debt.  Yet, thanks to $trillions in Fed and central-bank pumping, it has so far been, "To infinity and beyond!"

[Brooke]

The only people dying are 70 year olds with preexisting conditions....

We'll see if that holds up.

Still, as a guy with kids living in US's ground zero of SARS-2 (just about all the US deaths so far are at my local hospital), and with 70 year old old parents (one with some health issues) living here, I don't feel at all comfortable.

[Shuffler]

9 actually.

Buts whats your point other than meaningless quips?

Are you claiming it won't go higher than 9?

Are you claiming it won't go higher than 100?  100k?

If so, what is the basis for your estimate? 

[edit]

To answer my own question, the only rational argument that I've seen is that the testing so far has been so incompetent and incomplete that there have been a lot more mild cases than have been reported so that the overall mortality rate is actually less than what the numbers suggest now.  I'd hope that the CDC would have taken that in to account with their new numbers, but I'm hoping they haven't.

But even giving it every benefit of the doubt, it is easy to imagine 100,000 US deaths before a vaccine is distributed and widely available.

That still sounds like a staggering number to me.

Interesting you consider 9 deaths meaningless.

That is how many deaths this year. No matter what else is said..... that many have died.

[Brooke]

what do you make of this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7951293/Bill-Gates-Predicted-Coronavirus-Like-Outbreak-2019-Netflix-Documentary.html

I already gave my thoughts on that stuff.  Experts in the field have long been concerned about coronavirus, bat derived, from China, and Chinese markets (where people get all kinds of highly unwise stuff to eat, like bats, pangolins, whatever) -- because those things have caused problems before, and are as obvious a source of danger as using candles for light in a gunpowder factory.

Also, if Bill had talked about concern of an Ebolavirus, bat derived, from Africa, perhaps initiated by consumption of bush meat, spread by the way Africans treat and dispose of dead family members, and facilitated by lots of local warfare, getting into other countries via air travel -- and if he talked about it prior to it happening during the West African Ebola virus epidemic of 2016 -- it would not have been a surprising coincidence.

It's like someone talking about concern over big earthquakes in California, and lo and behold, one day a big earthquake happens in California.  Just coincidence?  Or did he somehow have mysterious and secret foreknowledge of it?  Since you are used to the idea that one day California will have a big earthquake and used to people talking about it all the time, that wouldn't surprise you.

You aren't used to people talking about the threat of viruses out of Chinese markets.  But that is well-known ground to the emerging-infectious-disease community.

Check out the movie Contagion.

[Brooke]

I found it! 2 hours of Q proofs and connections.

I scanned through maybe the first 1/4 of it.  All of the stuff I saw was of this pattern:  out of the 1000's of vague, badly written Q Anon statements (many statements per post and 100's of posts), pick out a handful for which an explanation can be concocted after the fact to relate (sometimes in a secondary or tertiary way) to a subsequent event or post.  Do not analyze a substantial sequential number of Q Anon statements, and do not analyze any that were clearly wrong.  Explained by a guy who means well but seems to have zero training in science or probability and statistics and does not seem to have any exposure to the hallmarks of hucksters, con men, magicians, or prognosticating stage performers.

The only interesting thing I saw was one picture that had a file name containing "DOITQ", which is amusing.  But it's not as astonishing as a person might think who doesn't know how to consider the odds of such things.

Mostly, it's like if I rolled dice 1000 times, and some guy picks out several stretches where I rolled double sixes thrice in a row, and then claims how unlikely that many double sixes is and claims that I have the power to manipulate the outcome of dice.

I'd love it if some Q Anon stuff were true, though.  I'd love to see some serious swamp draining, which so far seems like a total bust.

[Firetech]

Interesting you consider 9 deaths meaningless.

That is how many deaths this year. No matter what else is said..... that many have died.

Any death from this sucks but sadly it’s happening and will continue.

That mortality rate is going to continue to shift. Some experts are suggesting that there is a massively undercounted segment of people that have the virus but whose symptoms are mild or show no symptoms at all. When you had those into the infected numbers the true mortality rate drops down as low as 0.2%

It’s to early for the US to start thinking it’s the massive outbreak. Once the testing here in the US finally gets ramped to full use, the infection number is going to skyrocket while the mortality rate % will drop. 

Check out a new article in the LATimes. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-03/how-bad-could-coronavirus-outbreak-get

[morfiend]

The little french bulldog will take care of you before you can and since we're a bilingual country my english bulldog will finish you off.


              Who ever told you we were a bilingual country?

  Oh I dont know,maybe the canuk constitution...

  https://www.lawnow.org/why-is-canada-a-bilingual-country/


   

[Arlo]

[FLS]

Interesting you consider 9 deaths meaningless.

That is how many deaths this year. No matter what else is said..... that many have died.

18,000 deaths so far this season from the normal flu in the US. 

[icepac]

How many have died at this stage means jack because their care will be far better than the care people get when standing around a hospital because there are no beds.

It isn't the infection itself but rather WHEN people are infected.

It's starting to look like many will be infected in a short amount of time which history has shown to be a bad thing.

[CptTrips]

Interesting you consider 9 deaths meaningless.

That is how many deaths this year. No matter what else is said..... that many have died.

Read it again and concentrate.

I said your your quips were meaningless, not the deaths.

[morfiend]

I went to costco on a monday,thinking it might not be too busy,was I wrong!

  People are buying all sorts of stuff,toilet papper and water were the biggest sellers but bulk dry goods came a close second.

   I just dont get it,none of it was on sale.

  I look at it this way,when your number is up,it's up nothing you can do about it so why worry? You could get hit by a bus crossing the street. I broke a rule,I didnt stay away from a crowed public place,but I sure did wash my hands and tried not to touch anything,no shaking hands,fist pumps etc. common sense folks,ya I know it isnt all that common but just use it.


   

[morfiend]

sorry for the double post but I have a question for the tech guys.

  Can my computer catch the corona virus or will norton protect it?


   

[Arlo]