There's an article in the journal Science that suggests only 1 in 7 cases are severe enough to seek treatment and get counted. That would mean 40,000 currently infected with a CFR of .2%.
Lets all hope that is the case. If we can pull our testing head out of our dysfunctional orifice, maybe we can get large enough numbers to show that, which would go a long way to helping us loosen up the mass isolation protocols.
I'm skeptical though. It doesn't look like Iran and Italy are seeing something with a 0.2 CFR. Looking at how China reacted, it doesn't seem like they were seeing something like a 0.2 CFR.
Another possibility is that I think it on average takes 24 days from infection to onset of life-threatening condition. This is happening really fast. If this is growing exponentially, then the vast majority of the current cases, identified or not, have not yet had time to have aged into the critical phase.
The dropped shoe may still be in mid-air.