I cannot prove if the isolation is working or not working but nor can you I would like to see your evidence that it is.
You don't think the flattening of the new US cases curve looks like quarantine has had an effect?
I have read several articles recently studying approaches to past pandemics to try and draw lessons.
In particular looking at different US cities during the 1918 Influenza. Consistently cities that acted quickly and decisively fared better:
Economists Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner released a working paper (not yet peer-reviewed) last week that makes this argument extremely persuasively. The three analyzed the 1918-1919 flu pandemic in the United States, as the closest (though still not identical) analogue to the current crisis. They compare cities in 1918-’19 that adopted quarantining and social isolation policies earlier to ones that adopted them later.
Their conclusion? “We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over.”
The takeaway is clear: These policies not only led to better health outcomes, they in turn led to better economic outcomes. Pandemics are very bad for the economy, and stopping them is good for the economy.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancingBut I know, you just say:
"That paper wasn't peer reviewed yet."
"This isn't the flu."
"That was then, this is now."
So, whatever. I'm sure even this administration looked at the best available models of both the possible loss of life and economic costs. They looked at the trade-offs and made a judgement call.
You say no one can prove it either way, yet in the real world where people just don't argue on the internet, decisions have to be made on imperfect information. That is what you get paid for. You can't just throw up your hands and say "you can't prove it either way!" Tough. A judgement call has to be made.
On a good note, if you don't agree with the judgement call on quarantine, you'll have the opportunity to express your displeasure officially come the Fall.