Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[Arlo]

What pre existing conditions did they have?

Are the majority half dead to start with?

https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,399049.msg5294612.html#msg5294612

https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,399049.msg5295172.html#msg5295172

[CptTrips]

What I speak of could be done very quickly (like in days) with just 1000 random samples (think polling) antibody tests.  I believe I heard that an anti body test has been developed. And I'm not talking about the need to produce large quantities, then we  finally would have an accurate measure of the denominator.

I know they are close to an anti-body test.  I don't know if it is being used yet.  I agree.  Epidemiologist have various sampling algorithm to give them a reasonable clear picture with a minimum of tests.  Kinda like Six Sigma Design of Experiment techniques.

Antigen tests are different matter.  We need to be massively testing everywhere to catch asymptomatic super-spreaders and get them isolated so we don't keep digging the hole we are trying to get out of.

I don't know if mutations equate to different strains technically. I don't know if they have enough in common that a vaccine can have effectiveness across the variations.  I can't answer those questions.  We do have to keep changing the Flu vaccine because it keeps mutating.  Subsequent vaccine versions are not as hard as the first one because the year variations are generally not massive.

(NYPost isn't my favorite source but I doubt they are lying...)
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/iceland-scientists-found-40-mutations-of-the-coronavirus-report-says/

I haven't decided how to feel about the possibility of a quickly mutating virus.  On one hand it makes it very hard to develop a vaccine or do meaningful anti-body testing.

On the other hand, the economies of transmission dictate that over time a virus will become more infectious, but less deadly. There is no economic benefit in a virus killing it's host.  Killing the host is not an intended feature of a virus, it's a bug. (See what I did there?  )  So if it's quickly mutating, maybe it quickly mutates to a less deadly form. 

But it doesn't always work that way.  some times the virus screws up.  The second wave of the Spanish Flu that came back in the Fall was much more deadly.  The majority of the 20 million deaths occurred in that phase.









 

[TequilaChaser]

If reinfection is possible, then there is not any hope for a vaccine. I had read some stuff about 2 possible strains. But any mutation (i.e. new strain) almost always cancels out any immunity.  The 40 mutation does not sound very plausible considering normal mutation virus rates.

HiTech

It has been confirmed for several months now that there are 2 different strands of covid19.....1 is mild with symptoms the other a lot deadlier


TC

[Arlo]

It has been confirmed for several months now that there are 2 different strands of covid19.....1 is mild with symptoms the other a lot deadlier

8 strains (at least).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/

[TequilaChaser]

8 strains (at least).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/

Ok, 8 now if they are being truthful   

Ya know, this stuff don't bother or scare me one bit because HE is my protector

[TequilaChaser]

Heh.  Good! 

You know what I got in the mail yesterday?  A notice I had to go in and get my drivers license renewed in person.  I wasn't eligible to do it online again.

But I checked and there is a state decree that all drivers license expirations after Mar 13 are waived until further notice.   

Whew!  I couldn't imagine anything more like a scene from a Stephen King novel than having to go to the DMV during a pandemic. 

Don't forget about that new federal ID requirement that kicks in on October 1st, 2020 because of that damn bill the government passed back in 2004, iirc

[guncrasher]

Don't forget about that new federal ID requirement that kicks in on October 1st, 2020 because of that damn bill the government passed back in 2004, iirc

real I'd has a 1 year extension.


semp

[CptTrips]

Maybe more good news.

It could be noisy data, but maybe we are just starting to see some effects to our quarantine...

Welp, there goes that theory.


Haven't even had lunch yet and new deaths are already 1,371.

Of course, given the progression time, those were probably infected before the quarantine.  If you assume an average 30 cycle we probably won't really be seeing the real benefits of a quarantine for another week.  I jsut thought maybe we were catching a lucky break for a change.

See, that's what I get for trying to be optimistic. 

[hitech]

Strange chart.
I well understand that it could be showing opposite causation but it could also be showing stay at home raises the number of cases.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1247500508841025542

HiTech

[CptTrips]

Strange chart.
I well understand that it could be showing opposite causation but it could also be showing stay at home raises the number of cases.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1247500508841025542

HiTech

That chart isn't compelling to me.  If fact in my opinion, that chart is attempting to be intentionally misleading.

The attempt is to compare the drop off in activity to when the Pandemic was declared.  If you remember, it was obvious to everyone we are already well into the Pandemic before it was officially declared.  If you remember there was quite a bit of consternation about why the F* the WHO hadn't already declared the obvious.  The drop off in activity after that was simple closing the barn door after the horse got out.

A more honest chart would be to graph the increase of COVID-19 hospitalizations over that chart.  I suspect you would see COVID-19 hospitalization climbing well before the Pandemic was declared or those countries decided to desperately slam the barn door shut. 

Where the F* is Lusche when the world needs him!



[Edit]  The people dying the last couple of weeks in Italy where people probably infected in early-mid February.  He didn't even bother to cover the early Feb period, but look at the activity in Mid-Feb of Italy compared to S. Korea.

Spain had just gotten through with some big festival the had even though cases were already climbing (can't remember the name. ).

 



And I know that guy.  I don't consider him a trustworthy source.  He has a reputation.  But that's as far as I can go under your rules.

[CptTrips]

I really find this guys vids interesting.  They have become a daily ritual in the evenings. 

It only 30 min long, but if you are in a hurry hit these points:

14:40 - Minimal conditions for responsibly easing quarantine.

16:45 - Stuff he says makes me think he doesn't consider the variations a barrier to acquired immunity.

17:50 - Have we had silent infections?  Approaching herd immunity?

20:35 - Confirms my suspicions that starting with actual observed deaths and working backwards is cleaner data.

22:04 - Modeling estimates.  Yeah I know...modeling, but tell me businesses don't rely on modeling and estimates.  (Note:  Herd immunity would require ~80% infection distribution. )

24:26 - Bad news on anti-body testing.  3 months????

[hitech]

Per presidential brief today antibody testing has already started.

[Busher]

Wow, is it just me? I thought we were getting mutted if we brought politicians into any part of this

[CptTrips]

Per presidential brief today antibody testing has already started.

Yeah?  Which one said it? 

If it's true, that's good news.  Let's hope they do better than with their first test kits.

[CptTrips]

OK.  Awesome.  It looks like our antibody testing has started. Hopefully those are successful.  Hopefully the Brits recover quickly.

It looks like initially the focus will be on identifying medical personnel who are at least risk to care for infected. 

Hopefully other are planning a more systematic sampling to answer some of our open questions.