The Great Unwinding

[Eagler]

Why the inflation numbers are like other numbers the government feeds you ... you are just supposed to swallow them without question..

It's why CLI is called CL lies by many

https://youtu.be/BoWnBjvgenU

It all sounds new to this guy..he best watch it or YT might cancel him..even though he speaks the truth.

Eagler

[morfiend]

I wish you lived near Seattle.  Up there, it's hard to get any time at all from handymen, and if you do find one available, the cost can be $100/

  The cost could be 1000bucks an hour and it wouldn’t matter how skilled the “handyman” is if he’s disabled. Just because semp knows how to do many things it doesn’t change the fact that he can’t physically do those things.

  It kills me to know my neighbour can renovate his house but yet claims his back is too bad to actually go to work. It’s the few like him that ruin it for those in real need but as I said I’d rather have a system that can be scammed than no system at all. Same goes for minimum wage,if there werent labour laws we’d still be working 7 days 16 hours for a nickel an hour and if you got hurt or killed on the job too bad so sad.


  <S>

[MiloMorai]

CEOs for the 350 largest US companies earned an average pay of $18.9 million in 2017, a sharp 17 percent increase from the previous year, according to a new study by the left leaning Economic Policy Institute.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/16/17693198/ceo-pay-gap-income-inequality

[Eagler]

Another side affect of free money from the fed since at least 2008

Greed is a wonderful thing...it must keep karma very busy these days

Eagler

[nopoop]

My God Vox as a news source ???

[Arlo]

My God Vox as a news source ???

There's worse. Much worse. But, of course, one could assess the supposed facts presented.

[morfiend]

There's worse. Much worse. But, of course, one could assess the supposed facts presented.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNKpK_InQHQ

[CptTrips]

Everywhere you look, nothing but tulips as far as the eye can see.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/08/investing/spacs-canceled-blank-check-stocks/index.html

[MiloMorai]

My God Vox as a news source ???

Better than FAUX Propaganda, be sure.

[Eagler]

Many more days like todayvahead IMO...and Cl lie is out tomorrow to let us know record gas is not their fault...

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Joking aside, Fed should really lay down a .75 to full point hike today (don't think they will).  Now would be a good time.  Hide it in the pain of the CPI report so market already throwing a fit. 

They are on the verge of losing credibility on inflation at that point the hikes or threat of hikes loose their psychological leverage.  Market starting to doubt they have control or sufficient backbone to tame inflation.  Once market loses all faith in Fed, psychology takes on it's own frenzy and doesn't pay attention to the fed any more.  Fed can't signal once the herd is in full panic.

But I expect a milquetoast  0.5.  Enough to hurt the market but not enough to get any real traction on taming inflation.  Things are starting to spiral.  The center cannot hold.

You guys may get your hyper inflation sooner than I expected.

[CptTrips]

A retired trader I used to message with told me a couple of things years ago.

First of of the day tends to be retail action.  Second half of the day tends to be institutional\funds action.
First part of the week tends to be retail weighted, Fri tends be when institutional investors tip their hand.

Those are weak correlations, not laws.  But I always pay special attention to the last half of fri action. I feel like that gives me best visibility into what the smart-money is thinking. 

Also he said markets seldom bottom on a fri. 

[Eagler]

Then some think there is the PPT which kick in when directed to minimize the damage

PPT is for plunge protection team which has been in action for some time according to some...usually in the last hour of trading

I am for a 1.0 increase to show they mean business

Considering they have to get the rate up to if not above inflation..they better get a move on or they will never catch up

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Considering they have to get the rate up to if not above inflation..they better get a move on or they will never catch up

But they don't.

It needs to get just high enough to:

1.  Destroy the wealth effect of a hyper-inflated stock market.
2.  Destroy the wealth effect of a hyper-inflated housing market.
3.  Loosen you a tight labor market with a recession and job loss.
4.  Create income insecurity with a recession and job losses to cool spending.
5.  Loosen you a tight commodities market with a recession and economic slow down.

They won't have to raise rates nearly as high as the inflation rate to let these second order effects do the rest of the work for them, thus saving the national debt carrying costs from becoming unserviceable.

[Edit]  And some of the inflation truly was temporary and stimulus money will continue to burn off on its own.  Some supply chain issues will unscrew themselves.

[CptTrips]

PPT is for plunge protection team which has been in action for some time according to some...usually in the last hour of trading

Whoa!  I missed that final drop.  PPT turned into GMTFOOH!  (Get Me the Fq OUT of HERE!)



If you listen, you can hear the muffled screams of a crop of muppets getting harvested by the bloody scythe of Smart-Money. 

[Edit]  And yet the VIX is still below 30.  Which suggests to me we are not even in the possible neighborhood of a real bottom.  When its 35-45 and Jim Crammer is hanging himself of live TV then let me know.  Then it will be time to start dollar-cost-averaging in.

VIX at 27 tells me Smart-Money doesn't even think the show has started yet.  The orchestra is merely in the pit warming up and tuning.  The lights haven't dimmed, the curtain hasn't opened.