The effects of the changes 2003 to 2004

[MOSQ]

The changes to AH in the past year have been dramatic. We have gone form AH I to AH II. The gunnery model has changed, some folks say the new gunnery model makes it harder to get kills. Other say it's not really different. The flight models have changed. The 2 x fuel multiplier. And finally, the ENY limiter.

Curious as to what these changes have made to the stats, I took a look at the July 2003 stats vs July 2004; and the Aug 2003 vs. the August 2004. They are quite dramatic. I have my own opinions as to why, but first the stats so you can judge yourself:

I was curious about a few planes, specifically the Niki, the P-51, and the two Spits; and to how all the above changes had affected their use in the MA. So I pulled their stats:

Niki:
July 2003 Kills: 35,722; deaths: 28,395 + combined: 64,117
July 2004 Kills: 27,770; deaths: 23,589 = combined: 51,389

Aug 2003 Kills: 32,628; deaths: 25,583 = combined 58,211
Aug 2004 Kills: 17,787; deaths: 15,285 = combined 33,072

Pretty dramatic changes year to year for the Niki

P-51D:
July 2003 Kills: 38,047; deaths: 41,508 = combined 79,555
July 2004 Kills: 27,770; deaths: 23,589 = combined 51,359

Aug 2003 Kills: 37,132; deaths 40,576 = combined 77,708
Aug 2004 Kills: 19,173; deaths 20,737 = combined 39,910

Another dramatic change year to year.

Spit 9:
July 2003 Kills: 49,048; deaths 42,434 = combined 91,482
July 2004 Kills: 22,828; deaths 22,356 = combined 45,184

Aug 2003 Kills: 44,980; deaths 39,082 = combined 84,062
Aug 2004 Kills: 17,700; deaths 17,071 = combined 34,771

The Spit 9 has seen a huge change in usage.

Spit V:
July 2003 Kills: 18,217; deaths 20,104 = combined 38,321
July 2004 Kills: 20,388; deaths 20,845 = combined 41,233

Aug 2003 Kills: 16,061; deaths 18,282 = combined 34,343
Aug 2004 Kills: 19,569; deaths 19,520 = combined 39,089

Apparently some Spit 9 folks have migrated to the 5, but not as many who quit flying the 9 by any means.


Here's the stats on the D-9:

July 2003: Kills: 16,771, Deaths: 9109
July 2004: Kills: 16,842, Deaths: 9918

Aug 2003: Kills: 14,510, Deaths: 8970
Aug 2004: Kills: 14,912, Deaths: 9107

Basiscally the D-9 is getting the same numbers in 2004 as in 2003.

Curious as to how many of these changes could be due to the ENY limiter, and how many may be because of fewer players or the more difficult gunnery model, I added up the total deaths to ALL models for these years. (Just Deaths, not Kills + Deaths)

Total Deaths:
July 2003: 619,677
July 2004: 492,754 a 20% reduction in deaths year to year.

Aug 2003: 642,609
Aug 2004: 471,781 a 27% reduction in deaths year to year.

As I started compiling the stats I was alarmed at the 50% reductions in the Niki and P-51D. I was glad to see that the total reduction in deaths is around 27%, but it increased from July to August by 7%.

I think the tougher gunnery model is making kills more difficult, hence this explains part of the reduction in kills and deaths. However the changes in deaths from July 2004 to August 2004 implies to me the ENY limiter is doing more than just causing folks to switch plane and sides, they are switching out of the game.

I love this game and want HTC to prosper. My conclusion from the above stats is the player base is declining, and declining at an increasing rate. I hope I'm wrong, that the changes in kills + deaths is not due to fewer players but to the other reasons. Only I COAD knows for sure.

Why and what can we do to reverse the situation?

1) There was bound to be a loss of players with the change in system requirements from AH I to AH II. It simply requires a more powerful system. Short of bringing back AH I, not much can be done here.

2) Should the Gunnery model, ENY limiter, and fuel Multiplier go back to AH I modeling? My vote is YES.

3) Do you have other ideas of what could - should be done ?

I stuck with Air Warrior to the bitter end. I even flew the night they turned the lights out in the full realism arena. I never want to see that happen here. Let's help make AH II a fun sim/game for the players and highly profitable for I COAD !

[Guppy35]

Right now, I'd say that for MA play, the AH2 Spit V is the better plane.  It works better down low and it doesn't have the nastier departure characteristics of the IX.

If it was a boosted LFIX it would switch back but since it's essentially become an LFVc vs a FIX, the V is the better bird.



Dan/Slack

[ra]

2) Should the Gunnery model, ENY limiter, and fuel Multiplier go back to AH I modeling?

Who even notices these things, let alone quits over them?

[Pongo]

Press on I say.
Keep an eye on the ENY thing. Keep adding planes. Keep making every one more detailed then the last.
The gunnery and flight models are fine. even improved.

and say it three times..
sorti rates, sorti rates, sorti rates.

If anything should be rolled back its the bomb sight and bomber defensive gun effectiveness. Make the laser sight available from single bombers.

IMHO of course.

[Zanth]

This has been hard on you hardcore "better dead than bish/knit" rooks.   From your perspective things might look darker, whereas the other two sides can look at the very same stuff and see great improvement.  It's all depends on your point of view.

Your data is interesting, but is only a snapshot.  For meaningful numbers you need more data than HTC makes available, i.e.  percentage of all sorties flown and player base numbers.   Good luck on getting THAT info

[Kweassa]

Thanks for the stats.

 It is as much expected and anticipated. Since the compilation of my NPA idea I've been trying to keep a keen eye on how plane choices and usage levels differ upon gameply conditions.

 One interesting aspect of the changes in stats, is that using kills earned as a measure of usage rate seems to be getting increasingly difficult since AH2.

 Many people may see different things, but in my own empirical opinion, the frequency of meeting a P-51D has not decreased at all. Contrary to that, the frequency of meeting a Spit9 or the N1K2 has been greatly reduced.

 If the MA of AH1 was constituted of four main types - La-7, P-51D, Spit9, N1K2 - the MA of AH2 seems to have shifted to the dominance of P-51D, La-7 and the Fw190D-9. Almost every engagement I see all of the three mentioned planes(plus, occasionally a Bf109G-10).

 However, if we look at the stats alone, the kills achieved have dropped to 50% levels for the Spit9, N1K2, and the P-51D. As much, the death rates have also fallen near 40~50%.

 Clearly, the reason behind the drop of Kill & Death numbers for the Spit9/N1K2 and the P-51D are not the same.

 I think it is more or less safe to assume that the 50% drop in K-D numbers for the Spit9 and the N1K2 is due to the drop in usage rates itself, while the same rate of decline in K-D numbers for the P-51D, is due to the changes in the game itself, and not necessarily a drop in usage rates.

 In other words, the P-51D is still a very popular plane, but it kills less, and gets killed less.
 
 Is there any way to directly check the sortie numbers for each planes? As it is, that seems to be the only reliable source in determining usage rates now.

[vorticon]

simply proves that people are avoiding fights more, is all...not much hitech can do about it, its a community mindset problem that has to be fixed by the community...as in going from "if i engage this enemy  chances are ill die and have to spend another x minutes getting back up, which is boring" to "if i engage this enemy and i die, ill know what to do next time he tries that, besides air combat is FUN"

[MOSQ]

Kweassa,
I agree with your main three planes in the MA. I see the P-51D, La-7, and FW 190 D9 more than anything else.

Here's the stats on the D-9:

July 2003: Kills: 16,771, Deaths: 9109
July 2004: Kills: 16,842, Deaths: 9918

Aug 2003: Kills: 14,510, Deaths: 8970
Aug 2004: Kills: 14,912, Deaths: 9107

Basiscally the D-9 is getting the same numbers in 2004 as in 2003.

[Rino]

One reason possible for the diminished numbers during the
summer may be the season..folks tend to spend more time
outside.

[Zazen13]

Originally posted by MOSQ

2) Should the Gunnery model, ENY limiter, and fuel Multiplier go back to AH I modeling? My vote is YES.

I've always been all about gunnery. I focus on gunnery skills more than anything else. I now achieve a similiar hit % in fighter in AH2 as I did in AH1 and I probably take alot more low-percentage high deflection shots now than I ever did in AH1. The reason I shoot more high deflection shots is the same reason more people find the gunnery harder, long shots just aren't lucrative in AH2. In AH1 long-range shots approaching and sometimes exceeding 1k were not especially difficult. In AH2 they are quite a bit more difficult to impossible. Therefore the majority of your shots are going to be alot closer and of the high deflection or snap-shot variety.

I had the advantage of playing alot in beta, but I know from others that did not play beta they just carried over the same convergences and shooting methodology from AH1 to AH2. They are the ones most frustrated. Not everyone is the same but I consider myself a very good shot,  I will not even attempt any shot over icon range 400 unless it's a bomber or a straight and level runner I'm trying to spook into manuevering so I can get closure. (I use a 275 convergence in all guns in AH2 as opposed to 400 in AH1)

So, I don't think the gunnery is necessarily more difficult per se. I just think the 'scaling' of the gunnery has changed but people have not changed their methods accordingly. In reality a 600 range shot in AH2 is roughly equivalent in difficulty to what a 1k+ shot was in AH1. But, once you close to 400 or less the gunnery is no harder than it was in AH2. I think people just need to learn to be patient and get in closer.

Zazen

[Overlag]

Originally posted by Rino
One reason possible for the diminished numbers during the
summer may be the season..folks tend to spend more time
outside.

this time last year i remember the arena being full to the 750 player limit

ive yet to see a night over 500 players since AHII came out........



dont get me wrong... i like AHII, but i DONT like unlimited planes, i dont like the fact that when you kill someone (or when he suicides) that he can be back in the air within 10seconds. I dont like the fact everyone seems to fly la7s. I dont like suicide NOE bombers, but then i can see why people do that, since bombers guns are useless now. I dont like the fact that anti night people dont even want 30minutes of night a day...i mean big DEAL, 24hours in a day and you cant put up with 30minutes? fact is, this game seems to be turning into a fighter jabo suicide game, very little else happens.

[MOSQ]

Rino,

That's why I compared July 03 to July 04 and Aug 03 to Aug 04.
I agree with you that comparing  November 03 to July 04 would be meaningless.


Vorticon,
I don't think folks are avoiding fights at a 50% greater rate. Subjectivey I don't see that big a change in the MA.

Zanth,
Either the number of players is decreasing, or the new gunnery model is a hell of a lot harder to get kills!

Pongo,
I agree that the laser bomber sight would bring back High Altitude buffs. Our squadron came to AH as a buff squad, but after the bombsight change we pretty much abandoned buffing for jabos, they were simply much more efficient.


I may have to start flying the Niki, there's no one calling you a Niki uberdweeb anymore !

[Zazen13]

Originally posted by MOSQ
Zanth,
Either the number of players is decreasing, or the new gunnery model is a hell of a lot harder to get kills!

I think it's just less people. MA numbers are obviously down from a year ago. I know just my squadron alone lost maybe a dozen people to the transition from AH1 to AH2 and several more to the ENY thingy. Alot that are still technically 'active' fly a fraction as much as they used to. I think this is pretty representative of the MA population as a whole from my observations.

Zazen

[dfl8rms]

Another possible cause for the decrease in kill numbers is the change to the ditch model.  It used to be a ditch = kill, now a ditch in friendly territory does not equal a kill.

[Mugzeee]

Originally posted by vorticon
simply proves that people are avoiding fights more, is all...not much hitech can do about it, its a community mindset problem that has to be fixed by the community...as in going from "if i engage this enemy  chances are ill die and have to spend another x minutes getting back up, which is boring" to "if i engage this enemy and i die, ill know what to do next time he tries that, besides air combat is FUN"

I "proves" nothing of the sort.
It can also mean that the players claims that the gunnery is harder for them (Cant get that bandit dead) are lagitimate.
I am a firm believer that the gunnery/ hit sprites/ fm  and so forth is the cause of the stats displayed by Mosq.