Lets see,
Iran is bordered by Afganistan, Iraq and on its almost impassable northern border Turkmenistan.
It southern border is the Persian Gulf.
Iran is in danger of being surrounded by democractic countries. No wonder they feel threatened.
Inside Iran is a large contingent of citizens who remember better times under the Shaw. Just because Iran doesn't make much noise doesn't mean it isn't a powder keg all by itself.
Predictions follow:
1) Iran will attempt to build a nuclear weapon capability to prevent any country (the US) from invading like Afganistan and Iraq.
2) Israel will destroy Irans nuclear capablitiy before it can enrich uranium, just like they did to Iraq.
3) Iran will be outraged. The moslem countries including Egypt will be outraged, but secretly all of them will breath a sigh of relief and concentrate on getting concessions out of Israel.
4) If in the unlikely event Iran can build and attempt to deliver a nuclear missile to Israel it will be destroyed by 400 patriot batteries stationed in Saudia Arabia.
Iran is in danger of becoming even more isolated than Israel. If democracies flourish on its Easatern and Western borders, it is essentially landlocked.
Unlike Iraq Iran can be almost completely embargoed with a blockade of the Persian gulf. No oil out - no money in. No Iran.
The Saudia's have been home to Al Qaeda extemistes from 1920 when England established the middle eastern countries. Winston Churchill described Al Qaedal in that year and mentioned that he hoped the Saudi's could keep them under control.
The Saudi's have pursued a pollicy of appeasement until now. The Saudi King knows that he can't wound Al Qaeda, he has to crush the movement to survive.
The invasion of Afganistan and Iraq has changed the whole terrorist landscape. if democracy takes hold in these countries terrorism will be greatly weakened. The last signifcant terrorist country (Iran) will be cut off and vulnerable to blockade.
Its unstable now, but there is more reason for hope than discouragment.
