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Author Topic: AOL Presidential Straw Poll  (Read 2081 times)

Offline myelo

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« Reply #45 on: October 22, 2004, 03:36:11 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by john9001
i'm not saying i believe any"polls" but most polls sample about 700 people , AOL's poll has  245,464


What does that have to do with anything? A large uncientific poll can be more statistically insignificant than a small scientific one.
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Offline Halo

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« Reply #46 on: October 22, 2004, 06:15:03 PM »
Myelo, theoretically true, but the validity of polls is notoriously hard to establish.  Do you have some examples of particularly good small scientific polls that have high successful rates of predicting various outcomes?

Not being smartass, just curious.
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Offline TweetyBird

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« Reply #47 on: October 22, 2004, 07:10:04 PM »
But very obviously, polls that show results as they are comming in are tainted by the fact those people participating are very concious they are being observed. There's a name for the effect, but I slept a lot during sociology class.
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Offline Gixer

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« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2004, 07:26:14 PM »
Only interesting point from the polls is that the difference is less then the margin of error.



...-Gixer
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Offline TBolt A-10

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« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2004, 09:51:43 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Gixer
Only good thing about Bush getting re-elected is that he will get to live through the consequences of all the wreckless and wrong decissions he has made over the last 4 years.

Though of course he still can't even admit he has made a single mistake.


...-Gixer


Boosh couldn't care less about the consequences of his actions.  He and Cheyne are richer now than they were 4 years ago.  Life after office will be one sweeeeet retirement for them.  :rolleyes:  Meanwhile, the middle class in America falls little-by-little into poverty.

If Boosh is re-elected, Iran will be his next big mistake.  

I'm not looking forward to another 4 years under Booooosh.
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2004, 09:58:26 PM »
Is it wheat straw or hay?

Latest from pollingreport.com

This one will be as close as last time; I'm saddened by the thought that it'll go to the courts as well. Bad trend, IMO. Fixing that starts with stopping voter fraud, I think but there are folks that will NEVER stand for actual voter verification. Believe it or not, Mexico has far better voter verification than we do.

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Offline Nash

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« Reply #51 on: October 22, 2004, 10:01:03 PM »
lol.... those polls are hideous.

Yesterday, that. Today, this. Tomorrow, that.

It's no wonder that I ever see them posted here every second day.
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #52 on: October 22, 2004, 10:03:40 PM »
I think the point, Nash, is that they are ALL within the margin of error.

This one is going to be just as closer or closer than last time.

That's what it tells me anyway.
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #53 on: October 22, 2004, 10:05:39 PM »
Toad, landslide Bush.

Even those polls point to a solid Bush leaning...but I'm not predicting a Bush landslide based on the polls.

In those polls, ( 16 ) Bush has 50% or better in 6 of them, Kerry ZERO at 50 or above and ony 2 at 49%...

Bush is never below 47% ( oops, once he had 46) in any of them, Kerry is 11 times out of the total of 16.

The trend is in favor of Bush in those polls.
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Offline Nash

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« Reply #54 on: October 22, 2004, 10:09:32 PM »
Oh okay.

Yeah, it's all Florida again. At least that's the safe bet.

Yet, call me cookoo but I have a feeling that this one's gonna hinge on Wisconsin. Imagine that.

The cheese state for all the marbles.
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #55 on: October 22, 2004, 10:14:45 PM »
Nuke, I don't pretend to be a professional pollster, even though I sometimes sleep in Holiday Inns.

I seriously doubt the "landslide" theory, either way. I think it'll be close and due to the bitterness from last time (despite the numerous recounts all showing the same result) I feel certain this one is going to the courts.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope there's a clear winner for the sake of our electoral system.

(I'd also like to see us adopt something like Mexico's voter validation process for the next one.)
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Offline Halo

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« Reply #56 on: October 22, 2004, 10:16:06 PM »
Twelve hours after this thread began, AOL poll has another 33,121 votes for total of 278,585 -- with same results.  

Here's the link:

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2004, 10:27:06 PM »
Hey Toad, will you answer two questions?

How would you characterise John Kerry as a person, a leader and decision maker?

Same for Bush.

By decision maker, I mean decisive....not "wobbly"
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2004, 11:06:32 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
I think the point, Nash, is that they are ALL within the margin of error.

This one is going to be just as closer or closer than last time.

That's what it tells me anyway.


Toad, in 7 of those polls, Bush has a lead at 4 % or higher. What margin of error are you going by?

Bush leads 4 or higher:

5%
4%
4%
7%
8%
8%
6%

Kerry's highest:

2%
3%

All the rest lower, one tied with Bush.

Bush will win in a landslide
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2004, 11:10:41 PM »
To further break down the poll results:

Number and size of Bush leads in the polls

5
4
4
7
8
8
6
2
3


Number and size of Kerry leads in polls:
2
3

Result? Kerry leads in only 2 polls, and only within the margin of error
« Last Edit: October 22, 2004, 11:13:06 PM by NUKE »
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