I'd put money on civil war within months of our pull out.
I think you're right... only maybe before we pull out. It is a
possibility that there is finally a willingness for Iraqis to fight for their freedom. I believe, in my simplistic mind, that a country held under the boot of a tyrant cannot be free unless its' people are willing to fight for that freedom. How valuable if the freedom if it is handed to them?
I do not think the Iraqis, as a whole, are yet to the point that they are wiling to fight and die for their freedom. I think many of them are pefectly willing to play the role of oppressed victim to whomever is willing to step up and take control. I believe that democracy in Iraq can only happen if a strong Iraqi leader(s) steps up to the plate. unfortunately, the Iraqis are so corrupt, and their religious beliefs so tied to politics, that this may not be possible.