Author Topic: Peak Oil  (Read 1362 times)

Offline Dinger

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« Reply #30 on: July 07, 2005, 04:48:12 PM »
Well, some of his arguments are pretty specious, like the amount of fossil energy required to produce anything: much of that is transportation, and much of that is flexible.
Oh yeah, and the notion that being energy-conscious is counterproductive shows a fundamental misunderstanding of economics.
Okay, if your costs are $1500, and $1000 of that is fossil fuel, if you save $500 on fossil fuel, you move from being 67% to 50% reliant on fossil fuel. Now if, per his example, you invest that money in the bank, and the bank invests in other businesses at 10-12 times the amount you invest, if those companies do the same as you (reasonable as you yourself decided to do it), then much less of that investment money is going into fossil fuels that otherwise -- but even more likely -- if you cut the customer a break, then fossil fuels become a smaller part of the pie.
and how does he justify saying that researching alternate energy resources will result in war with the Chinese?

Still, he's right about a couple of things. For the last 150 years, we've seen incredible growth based on an unrenewable energy resource. We're approaching the end of that resource, and things are gonna get hairy. Hell, few periods in history feature such a long period as the one some of us (=amurricans since the civil war) have enjoyed without any major social or economic upheaval.
Peak oil may be 10 years out, but it's coming, and it's gonna be nasty, especially for countries that have built their infrastructure around the automobile. Alternate energies are nice, but the most reasonable of them are expensive compared to oil.  Batteries and Fuel Cells are not energy sources.

Oil is what forestalled a Malthusian crisis... for the past few decades we've been seeing the first twinges of such a crisis in the poorer, overpopulated areas of the world. When oil beomes pricey, it's a problem.

Offline FUNKED1

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« Reply #31 on: July 07, 2005, 04:53:39 PM »
The key is getting the government out of the energy market, so that the market is able to respond properly to increasing oil prices.

Offline myelo

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« Reply #32 on: July 07, 2005, 05:32:18 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by oboe
I agree with Nuke33 - anybody who is not concerned about this must not have read the website fully.


I read the website fully and I’m not worried.

The author makes the common mistake of assuming a current trend will continue forever. By that logic, you would conclude that a teenager that grew 3 inches this year will be 12 feet tall by the time he’s 30.
myelo
Bastard coated bastard, with a creamy bastard filling

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #33 on: July 07, 2005, 06:07:15 PM »
I believe that several countries are working on fission that does not produce hazardous waste.

If you have a cheap and limitless supply of electricity then your dependance on oil shrinks to allmost nothing.   Say you have unlimited electicity and hydrogen cells at the same time...  This guys whole arguement is then laughable.  

How far are we from hydrogen cars?  some say 5 years... ten tops.   free clean electricity?  many paths to it.. who knows how long?  Nukes will do it now but they are dirty.  Dirty is better than collapse tho.  

So... you got cheap electricity that is producing hydrogen for cheap.   All you would need fossil fuel for is plastics and such... till something else came along that simply took a lot of electrical enegy to make.

his whole disaster scenario discounts any advances.... as do all disaster scenarios.

lazs

Offline Rolex

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« Reply #34 on: July 07, 2005, 06:19:13 PM »
I agree that he's got a fatalistic outlook. And it's been what, only a few months since this has been discussed here?

Random (no time) comments:

1. Cheap, pumpable oil availability will decline.

2. Sources and distribution of that oil will change - who's got it and who wants it.

3. Developed nations are pretty good at adapting/inventing technology and markets when required to, or market incentives allow it to.

4. Developing nations cannot become developed nations without industrialization and steep oil consumption, thereby increasing  polarizing, regional political tensions. That's the big bugaboo, in my opinion.

Something I cobbled together a few months ago related to the topic: Link >>

Offline Nuke33

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« Reply #35 on: July 07, 2005, 06:21:13 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
his whole disaster scenario discounts any advances.... as do all disaster scenarios.

lazs


Advances are based uppon the world's economic reliance on oil, everything requires it in some form to advance.. Our entire economy is based uppon oil, so what if we dont come up with a solution? That is the basis of his entire argument. If there is not enough oil to fuel advancement, it will not happen..

It takes energy to produce energy, and when the price/benefit of advancement merge, a big problem will be on our hands..

Right now there is hardly enough being done to advance in the way we need to in order to alleviate the problem.. Maybe thats what he's trying to get accross instead of we're all F*****...
« Last Edit: July 07, 2005, 06:23:49 PM by Nuke33 »

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #36 on: July 07, 2005, 06:21:42 PM »
fair enough rolex.

lazs

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #37 on: July 07, 2005, 06:27:06 PM »
nuke 33  read what I wrote.   energy is what we need and a way to use it... we don't really need oil for much.

When you are very young it is tempting to believe the doomsayers...  I am still waiting for the ice age time magazine predicted in the 70's that will make most of the U.S. a white wasteland by the year 2000.

I am glad I am not living on a giant garbage heap as was predicted for 20 years ago.

I am still burning gasoline in my car even tho it was predicted all supplies would be exhausted by the year 2000 back in 1970

I am really glad the whole planet didn't go into a nuclear winter as carl figging sagen predicted when the sadman lit kuwaits oil fields on fire.

live through a couple of these sure things and you get a little cynical.

lazs

Offline Nuke33

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« Reply #38 on: July 07, 2005, 06:37:03 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
energy is what we need and a way to use it... we don't really need oil for much.

lazs


Are you kidding me? Take this as just one example.. There are over 250 million cars in america alone.. Those will all become totally worthless eventually.. now you say all we need is energy? Wrong, our energy system is not set up to just use raw energy such as electricity, it needs to be in a form where the economy can use it, and that is STORED energy.. Energy that can be transported, held, and used on demand.. There is no such thing as an economically acceptable electric car, why, because there is no such thing as a battery that will hold a sufficient charge.. Plus the energy required to charge that battery is more than the output it would give.. stupid to try.. hydrogen car, nope.. over a million dollars a pop at this point let alone the platnium constraints mentioned in his article.. There is also no type of machine to produce such things, which require energy as well.. You only see the surface, and just because you think im 'young' or whatever is bogus..

Also have you noticed the prices at the pump lately? they have increased over 100% in the last 4 years alone.. Now tell me why that might be.. and when does it stop?
« Last Edit: July 07, 2005, 06:40:28 PM by Nuke33 »

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #39 on: July 07, 2005, 06:47:54 PM »
I just got done explaining to you that both GM and Toyota will have hydrogen cars by 2005.  hydrogen only depends (in a simplistic way) on electricity to make.   Doesn't matter how much electricity if it is virtualy free and clean.  

most of the 250 million cars we have aren't worth much... I won't miss em the new ones will be fine.   The classics will still live and I will own and drive em so long as I can.

We had millions of horses and buggies too at one time... we don't anymore.

lazs

Offline Nuke33

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« Reply #40 on: July 07, 2005, 06:56:00 PM »
What is free and clean energy you speak of? If you're talking of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, etc.. Then those at this point are hardly clean.. They take massive ammounts of energy to construct, and the only form of construction we currently have is reliant on fossil fuels.. Seen those big diesel run cranes and earth movers? If there is not enough oil to facilitate their construction there will be no energy period..

Also hydrogen is hardly a good energy source.. It currently takes more energy to exctact hydrogen into its raw 'useable' form than it produces in return.. Why bother?

Offline XrightyX

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« Reply #41 on: July 07, 2005, 06:57:40 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Habu
You can make oil.

You can make it out of plants, it is not very hard to do at all (already there are many people running diesels on vegtable oil). You can make it out of other hydrocarbons such as coal. You can make it in a bioreactor.

 


Currently, the energy equation for making fuel out of plants requires 2x as much energy (pesticides, tractor fuel, etc) as you get out of it...How is this possible?  Subsidies...

Hydrocarbons out of coal?  Germany did this in WW2, but also a huge energy input to get some out.

Solar and wind will be our future, methinks

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #42 on: July 07, 2005, 07:09:20 PM »
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Solar and wind will be our future, methinks


Nuclear power will be the future, because unlike wind and solar, it can deliver reliable and cheap electricity.

Offline XrightyX

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« Reply #43 on: July 07, 2005, 07:12:58 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nuke33
Also hydrogen is hardly a good energy source.. It currently takes more energy to exctact hydrogen into its raw 'useable' form than it produces in return.. Why bother?


This is one of the hottest areas of research in materials science right now.  The biggest problem is not producing hydrogen, but making hydrogen storage materials.  The 'useable' form of hydrogen can be made with a little electricity from a solar cell or whatever.

Offline detch01

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« Reply #44 on: July 07, 2005, 07:35:01 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by oboe
I Was Euell Gibbons one fo those survivalist guys?  

Didn't he choke to death on a picnic table?
Couldn't have been that sand he was trying to pitch as cereal - never met anyone who actually ate it....




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