Author Topic: Peak Oil  (Read 1300 times)

Offline Habu

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1905
Peak Oil
« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2005, 08:04:04 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by XrightyX
Currently, the energy equation for making fuel out of plants requires 2x as much energy (pesticides, tractor fuel, etc) as you get out of it...How is this possible?  Subsidies...

Hydrocarbons out of coal?  Germany did this in WW2, but also a huge energy input to get some out.

Solar and wind will be our future, methinks


If you make it out of corn maybe. But you can make it out of many other plant stock and with genetic engineering you can get vastly greater yeilds of oil out of a feedstock like soya bean for example if you wanted to.

South Africa had a huge oil from coal program going when I lived there in the late 80's. Look up Sasol. Also there is a technology called Fischer Trope systhesis that can make the production of oil from coal more feasible.

All it takes is the will to do it. Making oil from coal does consume energy but as someone said before it is about storeing energy for use in vehicles. So you can have a nuclear power plant producing electricy that is used to make hydrogen and heat the coal that then allows the coal to be rehydrogenated and form oil.

It is all about the cost of production versus what other forms of the product are currently available. With oil at 60 a barrel it will not be long until you see synthetic oil projects start to look attractive again.

And don't forget the reserves that are in the Alberta oil sands. They are middle eastern in size. They are also not counted in the worlds oil reserves.

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #46 on: July 07, 2005, 08:19:39 PM »
Oil at 60 is 20 bucks a barrel cheaper in adjusted value than it was in 1981.

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #47 on: July 07, 2005, 08:21:44 PM »
In case math ain't your strong suit, that is one-third cheaper.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2005, 08:26:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Lizking
Oil at 60 is 20 bucks a barrel cheaper in adjusted value than it was in 1981.


Sure but in that case the rise in oil prices were political in nature, not a economic constraint as it is going to become..

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2005, 08:28:24 PM »
Commodity prices are not driven by physical availability.  Stay away from hog bellies, my friend.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #50 on: July 07, 2005, 08:33:07 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Lizking
Commodity prices are not driven by physical availability.  Stay away from hog bellies, my friend.


Ok then as we continue to run out of oil it will stay at 60 bucks a barrel.. whatever man.. brush up on your econ and come back to the discussion

Offline oboe

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 9805
Peak Oil
« Reply #51 on: July 07, 2005, 09:01:07 PM »
Thanks for that link, Rolex.   It still is very interesting reading the second time through.

Noted today the development of closer ties between Iraq and Iran:

Iraq signs military pact with Iran

That's a stinger.   Not at all unpredictable, however.   If the fledgling Iraqi democracy gets any bolder, we'll be forced to reveal that they've been on double secret probation this whole time, and that our troops aren't leaving after all.

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #52 on: July 07, 2005, 09:29:56 PM »
Nuke33, um, OK.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #53 on: July 07, 2005, 10:33:00 PM »
Lizking correct me if im wrong.. As the supply curve decreases and the demand curve increases, the result is an increase in price.. Are you seriously going to tell me that the lack physical availability of oil isnt going to drive the price higher? you gotta be joking

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #54 on: July 07, 2005, 10:35:22 PM »
No, I am telling you that the amount of oil available, in the present and in the future, has absolutley nothing to do with it's current price.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #55 on: July 07, 2005, 10:40:42 PM »
So someone just decided to say.. yeah 60 bucks a barrel sounds like a nice round number... lets use that..

If the availability of oil has nothing to do with its price then its an 'unlimited resource' which clearly isnt the case

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #56 on: July 07, 2005, 10:44:22 PM »
I would charge a lot of money for economic tutoring, so I will leave it at this:  "high school economics will not prepare you for a career in the commodity industry".

No worries, Nuke33, I don't really care if you agree with me or not, But I would hope that you would explore the subject further to prove me wrong, if nothing else.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #57 on: July 07, 2005, 10:58:20 PM »
You know Lizking if you said anything to back up your statement, maybe I'd attempt to see your point.. but right now you're just blowing hot air..

And as far as high school economics.. I just spend 4 years at a university and have 2 degrees in business thanks..

Also take a look at this, I dont think it gets much clearer.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/learning/supply_and_demand.html

Offline Lizking

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2502
Peak Oil
« Reply #58 on: July 07, 2005, 11:01:32 PM »
Fair enough, Nuke, I don't care enough about your opinion to provide the information, so you win.

Congratulations on your education, that is always a good thing.

Offline Nuke33

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Peak Oil
« Reply #59 on: July 07, 2005, 11:06:27 PM »
See Rule #4
« Last Edit: July 08, 2005, 08:01:23 AM by Skuzzy »