Urchin,
Check out "Falling Angels" by Niven/Pournelle (if I recall correctly). It's fiction based on the premise that we *should* be in an ice age but modern influences are holding it back until the environment abruptly crosses over to massive cooling effects.
Pournelle's basic point is that there is no *good* science behind the anti-global warming measures. Sure there is a lot of evidence that the earth is warming, but the actual scientific data is completely insufficient to begin prescribing expensive measures or declaring this or that technology is the cause. Not only is the data insufficient, the ONLY major efforts underway in this area are expensive endeavours to combat technologies that have been the targets of environmental whackos for decades. There are NO major long-term scientific efforts being funded by ANY government, university, or environmental group to fully understand the environment and to separate natural effects/cycles vs. human created effects.
In the book, the folly of undertaking massive knee-jerk reactions to environmental changes without even trying to understanding the underlying systems leads to a sudden ice age. That's the danger we're facing now, and it's not just global temperatures. When the global DDT ban went into effect, it helped save numerous species from extinction but it's also doomed millions of people to die from malaria and other insect-spread disease. Why can't the world allow DDT to be used in areas where the wildlife impact is limited to the insects that are truly controlled by NOTHING BUT DDT? Why? Because the DDT ban was an emotional reaction, not the result of a thorough scientific analysis of effects, benefits, and drawbacks. A North American ban makes sense, but an African ban does not. So millions die while we congratulate ourselves on the return of the Bald Eagle and the California Condor...
The same risk exists for all the proposed global warming remedies. We don't understand the systems but we're undertaking massive economic and industrial changes without true scientific basis. Yes, everyone can agree that acid rain is *bad* and airborne particulates are unhealthy. But there are other areas under scrutiny that follow the pattern:
I don't like xxx
Global warming!!!!!111one
Ban xxx !!111one
Fallen Angels is fiction, but it's a perspective that people don't think about because the global environment is being debated on an emotional level instead of a long-term unbiased scientific basis.
