Author Topic: Global Warming...not!  (Read 2499 times)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #45 on: April 12, 2006, 09:10:42 AM »
See Rule #5
« Last Edit: April 12, 2006, 12:19:34 PM by Skuzzy »

Offline straffo

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« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2006, 09:28:11 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
"Doctor! Doctor! Don't you want to x-ray my leg to see if its broken?"

"I don't need to do that, we all know that the cure for a broken leg is to put in in a cast.  Let's wrap you up!"

"But what if it's not broken?"

"You want to take that chance?"

>and it must have been the observation of stars during the eclipse, I'm sure they didn't have the good luck to have Mercury popping out during the few minutes available...


uh ?

how is it related to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle ?

Offline straffo

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« Reply #47 on: April 12, 2006, 09:30:47 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
straffo... if you use a car to go a mile to get to wallmart so that you have the time you would have spent walking to be productive then it is not wastefull on any level


if I follow your reasoning it's ok to waste ressource to be able to waste more ressources later ...


Quote
See Rule #5[/B]


Except the "not so hiden" frenhc bashing I don't see how it's related to the current discution.

PS: I'm not the one having to much vacation,you're the one not having enought.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2006, 12:20:00 PM by Skuzzy »

Offline Sabre

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« Reply #48 on: April 12, 2006, 12:46:50 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dowding
Sabre - just looking around the links within your new source, you find this sentence:

"The year 2005 was the second warmest on record, exceeded by 1998. This time series is being compiled jointly by the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley Centre."


1998 was El Nino, by the way, and is thought to explain that particular high. This is quickly followed by:
 
"Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities are most likely the underlying cause of warming in the 20th century."[/b]

The CRU is the underpinning source for your article and your opinion, but they seem to be taking the opposite position...

Now I don't know if they are right, but let's assume they understand their own data. Why would they so explicitly compromise their scientific objectivity and so readily jump on the 'fossil fuel' band wagon, as you would probably call it? Surely it would have been less hassle to just present the data. Failing that, they didn't even think to include a contrasting statement, a 'OTOH' alternative. [/B]


Couple of counter-points again.  First, it's not "my" article, though I happen to find the general arguments compelling.  Next, let's make clear that the CRU info contains two basic types of information: data and interpretation/opinion.  The info displayed on the graph is data.  The quote about "Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere" is opinion.  One of the points the author was making is that scientists feel pressured to cow-tow to the politically popular view, as the funding tends to flow from those views.

In the end, the question is not "Have global temperatures changed?" (they do, and in cycles).  The question is, has the significance of the data been misrepresented to the general public (and to politicians, it would seem) to support a political agenda?  Also, please remember you don't shed your human motivations and failings when you put on a lab coat.  Scientists are people too.  They want to secure funding and make a living and be well known and "important," just like everyone else.  I suspect (my opinion only), that weather researchers feel compelled to give a nod to global warming (as a human-induced phenomenon) in the same way that biologists must envoke Darwin in every research paper (whether Darwin's concepts were actually relevant to the particular research or not).  Taking the minority view is always the tougher row to hoe, and who wants to risk being branded a quook for bucking the consensus view?
Sabre
"The urge to save humanity almost always masks a desire to rule it."

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #49 on: April 12, 2006, 03:21:58 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by straffo
uh ?

how is it related to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle ?


You said, "You don't need any need proof of global warming existence or not ... as the cure is to..."

I was pointing out that if one does not understand the problem, a proper solution is difficult.

If CO2 is the problem, then using fossil fuels more efficiently only delays the inevitable. We must instead pull CO2 out of the carbon cycle somehow and sequester it, while virtually abandoning all burning of fossil hydrocarbons.

If CO2 is not the overriding driver of warming and the primary driver is increased solar activity or orbital changes, or axis wobble, then we are wasting a lot of effort in trying to change things we cannot possibly change.
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline straffo

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« Reply #50 on: April 12, 2006, 03:47:41 PM »
Cure was perhaps not the proper word ... in English

I'm myself not sure of the reality of global warming, I just wanted to point that "laissez faire" was not the proper attitude.

Personnaly I avoid using my car to buy my "baguette"* as walking 1 km with a car is not economicly efficient (a cold car suck fuel horribly) plus as an added benefit it's one of the little things that keep you fit/in good shape.



* it's not a joke :)

Offline Angus

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« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2006, 04:30:54 AM »
Well, from X-rays, the leg seems to be broken:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/ice_melt_010117.html

So, another x-ray:


Link here:
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp

Better use the cast I guess....
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2006, 08:24:58 AM »
straffo... I walk to the store all the time.  I do it for the exercise not to save money or resources.

If a country has long vacations then they are wasting resources too..  

My point is that every one likes to point fingers... that is the chief thing about the whole global warming thing...

It allows everyone the chance to point at the other guy and try to tell him how to live.  in france you produce very little per capita and the energy you produce creates nuclear waste.

I got no problem with that but don't be telling me that my car is the problem.... if there even is a "problem".

We use what we have and when or if it runs out or gets near to.... we find something else that is better.   If oil is evil then we need to use it up and get on with the process of finding a better alternative.

lazs

Offline Sabre

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« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2006, 09:46:41 AM »
Another article, this one from the WSJ...

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220

And Angus, changes in ice coverage are a symptom, the significance of which is the primary point of contention here.  It's like the a pain in your leg, whose cause is unknown.  A leg cast is used when you know for certain the pain in your leg is the result of a broken bone.  To offer an analogy, my young son was complaining about leg pains at night.  My wife (bless her heart) finally broke down and took him to the doctor.  "Growing pains," was his diagnosis.  Perfectly normal, no cast, no surgury, and no medication needed; just massage the legs for a few minutes every night.

To repeat one more time, global temperatures fluctuate over time.  No one is disputing that.  There have been hotter periods in Earth's history, and cooler ones.  What is in dispute is whether mankind is responsible in some way for the current fluctuation, and whether drastic and costly measures are necessary to counter it.  I have no problem with working to reduce polution output, but don't see the need for a costly and ultimately unworkable Kyoto-type solution (a deeply flawed concept, and one that is rife with the opportunity for such corruption as to make the Oil-for-Food debacle look vituous in comparison).  The primary reasons to reduce fossil fuel dependency are economic and geo-politcal, not environmental as far as I'm concerned.
Sabre
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2006, 06:58:01 PM »
Wobble about it as you like. The polar caps are melting.
It is because it is getting warmer.
The Ocean rise won't be that much. Most of the ice is on Antarctica, and it would take hundreds of years (or so) at the current speed to melt that block Melting the Northern Pole doesn't add much water since it isn't much ice on solid land - the volume of the ice is already in the ocean.
So, there will be a rise in sea level, but nothing so big. Well if everything melts we're talking some 200 feet which actually will flood every major capital on the planet....but most of the higher inlands will stay just nice.
A good day to move to Siberia.
Anyway Oil is going to get used up one day....we'll see how to go from there.
If global warming was not happening would we still consider?
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Cynic

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« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2006, 09:22:27 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dowding
That's one opinion in the 'nay' camp. The balance of scientific is heading for the 'aye' door. I suppose it depends on your risk tolerance as to which how you form your opinion, but being an accountant and a trained scientist I think I'll be prudent and support reduction in reliance on fossil fuels.

Besides, it coincides quite nicely with my views on geo-politics.

As for the article, much of that editorial is unsubstanciated opinion. He quotes one source but provides no link to the primary data. His opinions on 'gagging' orders are interesting, but add nothing to the discussion.


Yeah, it's primarily a political bash wrapped around very little, if any, evidence.  He says that the climate change is natural, but even natural, there is a root cause and he doesn't cite that.

He cites one University's studies. I'm sure if you search long enough, you'll find a study that says the excess CO2 is caused by too many critters alive at one time (there are more humans alive today than the summation of history).

And this line: "Governments generally choose not to receive policy advice on climate from independent scientists. Rather, they seek guidance from their own self-interested science bureaucracies and senior advisers, or from the IPCC itself. No matter how accurate it may be, cautious and politically non-correct science advice is not welcomed in Westminster, and nor is it widely reported."

Yeah, they receive the info they want to hear from cronies hired through the system establish by the current administration.  So, Bush saw through the smokescreen?  Perhaps he has someone who shares his view telling him what he wants to hear.

Never accept any one's word at face value. They all have an agenda.

Offline Cynic

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« Reply #56 on: April 13, 2006, 09:26:07 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Anyway Oil is going to get used up one day....we'll see how to go from there.
 [/B]


The current figure I'm hearing, taking into account China's increases oil usage, 50 years.

It will be interesting indeed, since 90% of everything we produce uses oil in some form or another.

Offline Angus

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« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2006, 05:01:17 AM »
And thereforth we have a max amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. For we have then pumped out what used to be CO2 or just charbon all the way back to Jurassic times.
Water is also in the form of steam, a greenhouse gas.

Well, my country is too cold anyway :D
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Angus

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« Reply #58 on: April 14, 2006, 08:11:22 AM »
Oh, dear. One of the UK government scientists actually belives that we're at fault for actual warming.....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3381425.stm
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #59 on: April 14, 2006, 09:31:51 AM »
cynic.... you accept that these scientists know where all the oil is and that they know how much the demand will be in the future and can predict when we will run out?

don't really live up to your name eh?

Then you go on to say that all the other climate changes were caused by too many animals on the planet?   and that the evil boooosh is somehow cooking the books?   did you read the wall street journal article sabre linked?

Angus... what would you like us to do?   You say it is happening and that we are causing it...  what do you think we should do?

I think that we could fix it or at least delay it if I could get a study grant for a couple of million.... not promising anything mind you but....

THINK OF THE CHILDREN.... WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING... ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN DOING NOTHING   IF YOU WON'T SEEND ME THE MONEY THEN YOU HATE CHILDREN AND GLACIERS AND ARE JUST A MEAN PERSON OVERALL.

lazs