Like I suggested many times, it is not an issue solely depending on the DM alone. It is an amalgam of the entire AH system and how it handles the aerial gunnery aspect of the game. I dare say that just two simple, relatively easy changes (that do not require a major gunnery/damage modelling update)...
1) remove the distance counter and maintain only the +/- sign on the icon
2) remove the ammo counter
... will immediately lower the average hit probability in the game.
The catastrohpic structural failures will still be the number one reason why planes are shot down in the game (since it involves no major modelling change). However, the difference is that this time, the average length of the window of opportunity which makes it possible to shoot down an enemy plane, will become considerably shorter than it was before.
Since there is no distance counter, the only reference you have in judging distances will be the relative size of the target compared to your gunsight. Misjudging distances will be farely common. Better yet, the lack of an exact ammo counter compells the pilots to be much careful in shooting at a target in the first place. You have no way of knowing how much ammo you have left - thus, the only instances where you will pull the trigger is when you are absolutely sure that you are close enough to hit a target.
...
This, as a result, will neutralize much of the (situationally) unrealistic, relative advantages the 50cals and 20mms hold over 30cal bullets. This is how it works:
With distance indicators and ammo counters, a seasoned AH P-51 pilot chasing a Spitfire can snipe him out of the sky from some 400~600 yards away. With much offline practice shooting at the bull's eye this pilot knows where to aim at such distances, since he already knows the dispersion pattern at a given distance.
He could think to himself, "I'll try and fire about 500 rounds max, and see if it hits", and he will fire controlled bursts without the danger of wasting too many rounds at a long distanced target.
Now, take away the distance counter and the ammo counter. How sure is P-51 this pilot now, when there is no '400' or '600' number to tell him the approximate distance? How confident is he, about how many rounds he will fire?
The implications are clear.
He will have no choice but to approach very close to the target (since there is no mistaking how close the enemy plane is, once you are inside about 200 yards), and he will fire only when he thinks he can absolutely land a hit. Not only does the absolute number of rounds fired decreases (thus, lowering overall hit probability), but also he will have to engage in much more close range combat than ever, since the Spitfire will react in defense, but he cannot just snipe it out of the sky at a long distance like he used to(because he cannot be sure of the distance unless very close).
Therefore, due to reasons of safety, this P-51, now without the distance indicator and ammo counter, will have much less opportunity to shoot at a given target.
The relative advantage 50cals and 20mms holds over 30cals, are now neutralized. It will still be much more easier to shoot down enemy planes with 50cals and 20mms, but only when he is within very close distances, just like the 30cals are required to do so. No more
"snapping wings and blowing the plane up at 400 yards with 50cal/20mms, while the 30cals are required to get in really close inside 200 yards to ever be useful".
...
There you have it. A much more realistic representation of aerial gunnery, by simply removing two crutches from the game.
The question is, how many people will really like this kind of 'realistic' gunnery?
I can hear the whines already, vets and newbies alike.
