Since I'm no expert in this theme I'm not sure how to put it, but it is what I call a classic case of
"technical realism vs. situational realism".
The actual 'likeliness', or 'probability' of gaining a kill is something entirely different from the concept of 'practical range', which takes into account not much more than a few mechanical and theoretical conditions. However, aerial gunnery is often dynamic, with many more factors than just mechanical - everything range from the psychological to the condition of the air, and etc etc.
One very typical example appears from your own post;
The normal shooting range in AH is 100-500 yard, above 500 yard it need many guns, many ammo or a strait flying enemy to get a kill, for me this sounds credible.
Indeed, having more armament, more ammo, and most importantly a more powerful gun (hence, the 'relative advantage' of 50cal/20mms over the 30cals) does make it more likely for the attacker to shoot down an enemy plane over 400 yards distance. This is where the term 'spraying' comes forth. However, just how compelling is it for the attacker to take a shot at an enemy plane at such distances?
In AH you know how far the enemy planes is out in front of you. You have exact information on how much ammo you have left. Therefore, your eagerness in taking a long-ranged shot is much higher than in real life. The frequency of taking shots is much higher in the game, which by itself is another factor that increases the hit probability. Whereas in real life, without any direct information concerning distance and ammo conditions, a pilot would be seriously discouraged from taking a shot under those conditions.
In other words, we are provided with such information that did not exist in real life, that effects each pilot to attempt long distance gunnery with much higher accuracy and confidence than ever possible for a real life pilot.
A very helpful, direct comparison would come from playing another game, IL-2/FB for example, in a multiplayer session that removes all icons from the game. The very need to identify friend or foe, the lack of info on the status of your ammunition and relative distances - all these factors bring out a very different tendency in game pilots. These are psychological factors that effect the reality of aerial gunnery.
But never forget: We have much more training and therefor a much higher skill than any WWII Ace(at least regarding shooting).
This is perhaps the most over-used and over-rated reasoning in defense of 'gamey gunnery'. Again, take IL/2FB for example. You could play in two different multiplayer sessions for direct comparison - one that has icon settings similar to AH, other that has no icons at all. The same people in same planes in the same game, and yet they react astonishingly different under different settings.
When there are icons with distance indicators around, IL-2/FB isn't all that much different from AH. People take pot-shots from some 300~400m out and it still brings down planes in such settings. However, take away the icons and and everything suddenly changes.
This is not an issue concerned with tech realism. Whether a gun is potent enough to bring down a plane at 1000 yards or not is absolutely meaningless. The only thing that has meaning is the probability of it all, and if it is more probable in the game than in real life, then it means the game clearly lacks some important factor that was present in real life, which inhibits such instances from happening.
Tony Williams has set down a rule of thumb, as a result of his studies in guns and aerial gunnery. 200m max for fighters, and 400m max for bombers - both flying straight and level.
AH has a 'killing range' that is approximately 200 yards further than in real life. It means AH is missing some factor that accounts for that critical 200 yards, and my explanation for it is the 'psychological factor'.
1) The anxiety, the worry of running dry of ammo during long engagements
2) The reluctancy to try a shot against a target which you do not have range info
These two real-life factors are responsible for the creation of the legendary maxim of fighter pilots;
"When you think you are close, get in closer".
- ... since you can never be truly sure how far the enemy is out. Give up 'foolish attempts' to snipe your target out from afar, and get in close ranges so distance (and convergence, as well) loses meaning.
- ...since long range shots are usually a waste of ammo, and going dry during combat usually means you are defenseless. Get in close and take short controlled bursts, instead of spraying out from a distance.
...
In turn, it is the lack of these very factors that makes the maxim unnecessary and non-existant in AH. Therefore, logic dictates that by removing the ammo counter from the plane, factor 1 is brought into the game. By removing the distance numbers from the icons, factor 2 is also brought into the game. (The +/- icons are enough for judging relative E state and closure/departure rate)
If people still take 400~600yards shots under those conditions, and so often brings down enemy planes, then I'll admit that us gamers really do have superhuman gunnery than compared to real pilots.
But until then, I call the
"we play more games, so we have better skill" theory bullshi*.