That being said, as much "disdain" as it receive on the boards I've had an opponent try to take the shot in a HO situation on initial merge probably about 90% of the time, (and this includes some vets who've sworn they never HO in here) and some planes are especially notorious for forcing HOs almost at will (Hurricane 2C, N1Ks, pretty much any Spit). So in all honesty, don't TRY to go for it, but if your opponent won't give you any other option take the shot (you can always try to roll yourself just enough out of phase it becomes a deflection shot and not a true HO).
i'm still pretty much one of the noobs, as i've only been here for about 6 or 7 months so far. in my p38, i notice a LOT try for the HO as they know the 38 is very susceptable to it. i try to avoid it. this is for me still hard, but one thing i've come up with is to use a very shallow dive, which to the other guy looks for all intents and purposes as if i'm flying straight at him.(i only do this if i can't find any other angle to attack at). at about 1.5k to 1.0k, i'll either steepen the dive to go under him, or i'll pull up to go over him. it seems as if when i pull up at that distance, that he usually misses me, and now i have an alt advantage(and i need ANY advantage i can get). i do spend time trying to maneuver to get something besides a head on shot, but i have guys that constantly turn right at me no matter what i do. unfortunatly, i have tried to take the HO too....not often though.....usually only if opponent fires first, or if i'm hurt and know i can't possibly get out of the situation(DESPERATE)
just my two cents..........on a topic that many get all fired up about...........